'As-if thinking': an experimental analysis of human reasoning and decision-making

“仿佛思维”：人类推理和决策的实验分析

• 批准号: DP0770292
• 负责人: Prof Brett Hayes
• 金额: $ 19.01万
• 依托单位: The University of New South Wales
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2007-01-01 至 2011-02-15
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP0770292
• 关键词: thinking; experimental; analysis; human; reasoning

The failure to respond adequately to the havoc wreaked by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 highlighted the difficulty of sequential decision-making. Responses to such emergencies require detailed contingency plans, necessitating a consideration of all possible outcomes of a situation regardless of their objective probability. This project takes an innovative approach to the experimental analysis of human reasoning and decision-making, with the aim of identifying the mechanisms, factors, and boundary conditions affecting inferences and decisions about uncertain alternatives. The research will inform planning for Australia's readiness to respond to unpredictable events with uncertain outcomes and enhance the reputation of Australian science.

未能对2005年卡特里娜飓风造成的破坏作出充分反应，突出表明了顺序决策的困难。对这种紧急情况的反应需要详细的应急计划，必须考虑到一种情况的所有可能结果，而不论其客观可能性如何。该项目采用创新的方法对人类推理和决策进行实验分析，旨在确定影响不确定替代品的推理和决策的机制，因素和边界条件。该研究将为澳大利亚准备应对结果不确定的不可预测事件提供信息，并提高澳大利亚科学的声誉。