'As-if thinking': an experimental analysis of human reasoning and decision-making

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The failure to respond adequately to the havoc wreaked by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 highlighted the difficulty of sequential decision-making. Responses to such emergencies require detailed contingency plans, necessitating a consideration of all possible outcomes of a situation regardless of their objective probability. This project takes an innovative approach to the experimental analysis of human reasoning and decision-making, with the aim of identifying the mechanisms, factors, and boundary conditions affecting inferences and decisions about uncertain alternatives. The research will inform planning for Australia's readiness to respond to unpredictable events with uncertain outcomes and enhance the reputation of Australian science.