A probabilistic approach to uncertainty in pre-modern history

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Probability is the most powerful conceptual tool that humans have yet developed to understand and manage uncertainty. Scientists, economists and other researchers engaged in forecasting the future regularly use probabilistic techniques to manage the massive uncertainties they face in estimating future values of parameters such as global temperature or human population. Rather than trying to guess the exact value of the variable they are interested in, they tend to think in terms of 'probability distributions' over ranges of possible values. In effect, they draw on the power of modern computing to model all possible futures in order to see how frequently different outcomes occur, rather than trying to model a single 'best estimate' scenario.Probabilistic estimation of uncertain variables was pioneered in the field of nuclear safety in the 1970s and has since become a workhorse of the natural and social sciences. Decades of experience have refined both the theory that underpins it and the methods for implementing it. Probabilistic models are not infallible, but they capitalise on the power of computing and offer a balance of pragmatism and rigour that makes them far superior to the deterministic 'best estimate' models they displaced. The probabilistic approach is now de rigeur in fields as diverse as economics, meteorology and radiation oncology. Yet it has never been developed as a tool of historical analysis, although many quantitative problems in history share deep structural similarities with the problems where probabilistic approaches are deployed in other fields (most importantly: the presence of multiple independent sources of uncertainty). This Fellowship aims to demonstrate their potential as tools of historical analysis and to work towards disseminating the knowledge and skills needed to use them to other pre-modern historians. The potential reward is an improvement in the quality of our knowledge about many obscure historical parameters. In some cases this will involve generating robust estimates for parameters that have seemed unquantifiable given the current evidence base; in others it will involve unsettling established hypotheses that obfuscate the full extent of uncertainty.The Fellowship will produce (i) studies of three long-standing problems in ancient history, to illustrate the method and its potentially wide application, (ii) a workshop to disseminate and refine the methodology in collaboration with other early-career researchers, (iii) a conference to stimulate wider reflection on the methods we use to think about uncertainty in the past and (iv) a book show-casing the state of the art in, and new approaches to, parametric modellin in ancient history.