Vulnerabilities to Modern Slavery? Predicting the presence and location of informalised workplaces in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic

非正规化的企业通过剥削劳动力获得竞争优势，特别是忍受不安全、不规律的工作时间、工资过低和没有节假日工资的农民工。现代奴隶制的其他方面将劳动力与工作场所“捆绑”在一起，在这些工作场所，住宿和生活费是实物报酬。自2016年以来，使用非正式就业和现代奴隶制的企业每年创造英国GDP的12%，养活250万工人，相当于正规私营部门工人的9%。莱斯特新冠肺炎的封锁突显出，这些做法仍然是强制性的，对工人来说不安全，但在就业地点以外的地方却具有潜在的危险和生命威胁。这一研究项目侧重于以下关键问题：1.估计特定部门中非正规工作场所的规模和地点：尽管认识到与非正规经济有关的问题，但没有对这一经济部门的规模进行官方估计(地方部门案例研究无法汇总以得出具体部门的企业总数)。因此，第一个工作包将提供(A)对英格兰和威尔士洗手车、指甲杆和服装制造商数量的准确估计，以及(B)确定影响这些企业地点的空间因素和邻里特征。我们利用Facebook和谷歌地图的信息，并通过谷歌街景在各个社区进行虚拟驾驶，以追踪非正式企业的存在。然后，利用官方数据来源和统计模型，我们能够识别出那些有洗手车、指甲吧或服装制造商的社区--以及那些没有洗手车、指甲吧或服装制造商的社区--的区别特征。这使我们能够(A)预测英格兰和威尔士那些非正规企业更有可能落户的社区；以及(B)了解影响这些企业存在的因素--以及这如何为战略执行和干预目标提供信息。到目前为止，由于缺乏这类信息，执法机构从被动的、情报主导的干预转向主动的地理信息行动的能力受到限制。2.新冠肺炎大流行明显限制了与非正规企业有关的潜在客户和工人的流动。然而，谷歌移动数据显示，居民出行的规模和位置存在明显的空间差异。克莱沃安全洗车应用程序使消费者能够向现代奴隶制帮助热线反映任何担忧。利用机动性和清洁剂的数据，这项研究还将检验机动性水平的变化、消费者(与洗手车有关)充当“执法”机构的能力，以及英格兰和瓦利桑那州各社区洗手车、指甲杆和服装制造商的预测地点之间的关系。3.我们的研究已经为执法机构在洗手方面的活动提供了更广泛的信息。利用我们与这些组织的合作伙伴关系，该研究项目的最后一个组成部分将与执法机构一起对非正规企业进行实地考察，以探索新冠肺炎疫情如何对雇主、工人产生影响，以及它在多大程度上促进或中断了成为现代奴隶的途径。然后，该研究项目产生的知识和数据将被转化为在线互动资源和社区地图，使执法机构能够(A)更好地了解非正规企业的性质和地点；(B)更有效地针对非正规经济中的特定部门制定干预措施；以及(C)针对非正规经济中的特定部门量身定制这些干预措施的性质。

Informalised businesses secure competitive advantage by labour exploitation, particularly migrant workers who tolerate insecure, irregular hours, wage underpayment and no holiday pay. Other aspects of modern slavery 'bond' labour to workplaces where accommodation and subsistence act as payment in kind. Since 2016, businesses using informalized employment and modern slavery annually generate 12% of Britain's GDP sustaining 2.5 million workers equal to 9% of formal private sector workers. The Covid-19 lockdown in Leicester has highlighted that these practices remain coercive and unsafe for workers but are potentially dangerous and life threatening beyond the site of employment. This research project focuses upon the following key issues:1.Estimating the scale and location of informal workplaces in specific sectors: Despite awareness of issues relating to the informal economy, there are no official estimates of the scale of this economic sector (and local sector case studies cannot be aggregated to generate sector-specific business totals). The first work package will therefore provide (a) an accurate estimate of the number of hand car washes, nail bars, and garment manufacturers in England and Wales, and (b) identify the spatial factors and neighbourhood characteristics that influence the location of these businesses. We draw upon information from Facebook and Google Maps, in conjunction with virtual drives through individual neighbourhoods via Google Streetview, to track down the presence of informalised businesses. Using official data sources and statistical modelling, we are then able to identify the distinguishing characteristics of those neighbourhoods containing hand car washes, nail bars or garment manufacturers - and those neighbourhoods that do not. This enables us to (a) predict those neighbourhoods across England and Wales where informal businesses are more likely to be located; and (b) understand the factors that shape the presence of these businesses - and how this can inform strategic enforcement and the targeting of interventions. The absence of this type of information has hitherto limited the ability of enforcement agencies to move from reactive, intelligence-led interventions towards proactive geographically informed actions.2.The Covid-19 pandemic has clearly restricted the movement of potential customers and workers in relation to informal businesses. Google Mobility data, however, has revealed distinctive spatial variations in the scale and location of journeys made by residents. The Clewer Safe Car Wash app enables consumers to register any concerns with the Modern Slavery Helpline. Utilising the mobility and Clewer data, this research will also examine the extent to which there is a relationship between the transformation of mobility levels, the ability of consumers to act as 'enforcement' agents (in relation to hand car washes), and the predicted location of hand car washes, nail bars, and garment manufacturers across neighbourhoods in England and Wales.3.Our research has already informed the activities of enforcement agencies more generally in relation to hand car washes. Using our partnership with these organisations, the final component of this research project will use site visits in conjunction with enforcement agencies to informal businesses to explore how the Covid-19 pandemic has impacted upon employers, workers - and the extent to which it has facilitated or disrupted pathways into modern slavery.The knowledge and data generated by this research project will then be transformed into an online interactive resource and neighbourhood level map that will enable enforcement agencies to (a) better understand the nature and location of informal businesses; (b) target their interventions more effectively; and (c) tailor the nature of these interventions in relation to specific sectors within the informal economy.