LABOR MARKET TRANSITIONS OF OLDER WORKERS

拟议研究的目标是加深对 社会经济政策、个人特征等之间的关系 如健康状况，以及老年工人的劳动力市场行为。我们的 具体目的是评估对老年人劳动力供应的影响 修改社会保障福利公式的工人，例如 可领取全额福利的年龄的变化或 提前或延迟退休的精算调整。这一目标将会实现 通过构建、评估和实现 劳动力市场行为结合了个体的异质性和 旨在评估社会保障和其他社会经济方面的影响 政策。 该模型结合了最新的方法学进展，并具有 通过五个关键特征。(1)模型完全结构化，并植根于 生命周期优化行为。(2)该模型允许逐期执行 关于劳动力供应和劳动力市场国家之间流动的决定。(3) 社会保障政策的所有方面都被完全详细地建模， 允许检查这些政策中非常具体的变化。(4) 关于政策变化对经济增长影响的准确统计推断 提供了老年工人的收入和劳动力市场行为。(5) 模型同时包含了观察到的和未观察到的异质性； 未观察到的异质性是一个可检验的假说。 综上所述，这些功能提供了将 对政策变化的考虑更坚定地建立在经验基础上，以及 以政策制定者认为最有用的形式提供评估。vt.在.的基础上 完成后，该项目还将提供一种方法学和经验性的 为后续调查其他影响 美国老年人的福利。

The objective of the proposed research is an increased understanding of the relationship between socioeconomic policy, individual characteristics such as health status, and the labor market behavior of older workers. Our specific aim is the assessment of the impact on the labor supply of older workers of modifications in the Social Security benefit formula, such as changes in the age at which full benefits can be received or in the actuarial adjustment for early or delayed retirement. This aim will be met through the construction, estimation, and implementation of a model of labor market behavior that incorporates individual heterogeneity and that is designed to assess the impact of Social Security and other socioeconomic policy. The model incorporates recent methodological advances, and is characterized by five key features. (1) The model is fully structural and grounded in life-cycle optimizing behavior. (2) The model permits period-by-period decisions about labor supply and movements between labor market states. (3) All aspects of Social Security policy are modelled in complete detail, permitting examination of very specific changes in these policies. (4) Exact statistical inference about the effects of policy changes on the income and labor market behavior of older workers is provided. (5) The model incorporates both observed and unobserved heterogeneity; the absence of unobserved heterogeneity is a testable hypothesis. Taken together, these features provide the opportunity to ground the consideration of policy changes more firmly on an empirical foundation, and to provide appraisals in forms policymakers will find most useful. Upon completion, the project will also provide a methodological and empirical foundation for the subsequent investigation of other policies that affect the welfare of older Americans.