Epidemics in large populations: long-term and near-critical behaviour

大规模流行病：长期和近乎危急的行为

• 批准号: FT170100409
• 负责人: Prof Malwina Luczak
• 金额: $ 64.17万
• 依托单位: The University of Melbourne
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: ARC Future Fellowships
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2017-12-30 至 2022-12-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/FT170100409
• 关键词: Epidemics; large; populations; long; term

The project aims to prove qualitative and quantitative results concerning aspects of the long-term behaviour of near-critical epidemics, including the probability and duration of a large outbreak, and the total number of people infected. This project is a theoretical study of stochastic models of epidemics in large populations. The project will focus on emerging epidemics, where the average number of contacts, infection and recovery rates are such that the basic reproduction number of the disease is near the critical value 1. The project will plan to both analyse particular epidemic models and develop new methodologies applicable in broader contexts. The mathematical predictions will be tested through simulations and comparison to real-world data. The significant outcome of the project should be the advancement in mathematical understanding of infectious disease spread, eventually leading to improved epidemic surveillance and control, and resulting in more effective protection of public health, improved quality of life, and obvious economic benefits.

该项目旨在证明关于接近危急流行病的长期行为各方面的定性和定量结果，包括大规模爆发的可能性和持续时间，以及受感染的总人数。这个项目是对大群体流行病随机模型的理论研究。该项目将侧重于新出现的流行病，在这些流行病中，接触者的平均人数、感染率和恢复率使该疾病的基本繁殖数接近临界值1。该项目将计划分析特定的流行病模型，并制定适用于更广泛情况的新方法。数学预测将通过模拟和与现实世界数据的比较进行测试。该项目的重要成果应该是提高对传染病传播的数学认识，最终改善流行病监测和控制，从而更有效地保护公众健康，提高生活质量，并获得明显的经济效益。