Developing insect population models to support the design of GM control strategies

开发昆虫种群模型以支持转基因控制策略的设计

• 批准号: BB/M017567/1
• 负责人: Anthony Wilson
• 金额: $ 12.93万
• 依托单位: The Pirbright Institute
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=BB%2FM017567%2F1
• 关键词: Developing; insect; population; models; support

The stable fly is a major nuisance insect with a global distribution and is capable of mechanically transmitting a range of important livestock and human pathogens. The stress and injury caused by its biting activity are estimated to cost the US cattle industry around $1billion/year. Its impact is projected to increase in regions including Brazil and Australia as a consequence of recent changes to the management of sugar cane and other vegetable waste. Better control methods for stable flies would therefore benefit animal welfare, bioenergy production and food production.The industrial host of this project, Oxitec, is a world leader in developing methods for manipulating insect populations through the development and release of genetically modified strains. For mosquitoes, this typically involves the release of very large numbers of modified male insects to outcompete wild-type males. This has minimal impact because male mosquitoes do not blood-feed. To use similar approaches to control stable fly populations, there is a greater need for tools to design optimally efficient release strategies because male and female stable flies both blood-feed.The proposed project will develop process-based models of stable fly populations and use modern statistical approaches to fit them to data. Process-based models explicitly model biological processes such as birth and death rates rather than simply modelling abundance. They are relatively complex and the difficulty of fitting them has historically been a limitation, but they are better for exploring the responses of populations to unusual circumstances such as climate change or control strategies. Recently, better statistical approaches to fitting complex models to data have been developed, such as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC).The Mathematical Biology group at Pirbright has a history of successfully using cutting-edge statistical approaches to fit complex biological models to data. During the recent outbreak of Schmallenberg virus in northern Europe, the group used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit a complex disease transmission model to the early stages of the outbreak, allowing inferences to be made about key disease transmission parameters which were provided to the European Commission to make outbreak management decisions. The conclusions of the model were later validated experimentally. The group also has a history of facilitating the acceptance of modelling outputs for policy decisions. For example, disease spread simulations provided by the group were recently used to help make the case for licensing a novel bluetongue vaccine product, and during the BTV outbreak in the UK in 2007 the group provided simulation outputs in real-time in response to queries from policymakers.Process-based insect population modelling is a logical next step for the group's research into the spread of vector-borne diseases, as it will allow the effects of climate change and novel control strategies on insect vector populations to be predicted with greater certainty. The stable fly is an ideal species to begin with for several reasons. Firstly, as outlined above, the species is associated with a substantial and growing direct impact in many areas of the world and represents a large potential market. Secondly, an opportunity exists to develop the model in parallel with a GM control product and then use the project outputs to design optimal release strategies of the new strains, supporting its uptake. The academic partner maintains the only colony of stable flies in the UK and is able to support the project via materials and know-how. Colleagues at EMBRAPA have recently begun collecting a large dataset of population observations that they are willing to share for the project, and an outline population model was already developed during previous research activities.

马蝇是一种全球分布的主要有害昆虫，能够机械地传播一系列重要的牲畜和人类病原体。据估计，它的咬人活动造成的压力和伤害使美国养牛业每年损失约10亿美元。由于最近对甘蔗和其他蔬菜废物管理的改变，预计其影响将在巴西和澳大利亚等地区增加。因此，更好的控制稳定蝇类的方法将有利于动物福利、生物能源生产和食品生产。这个项目的工业宿主，Oxitec，在开发通过开发和释放转基因菌株来控制昆虫种群的方法方面是世界领先的。对于蚊子来说，这通常包括释放大量的转基因雄性昆虫，以击败野生型雄性昆虫。这影响很小，因为雄性蚊子不吸血。为了使用类似的方法来控制稳定的苍蝇种群，更需要工具来设计最有效的释放策略，因为雄性和雌性稳定的苍蝇都以血液为食。拟议的项目将开发基于过程的稳定苍蝇种群模型，并使用现代统计方法使其与数据相匹配。基于过程的模型明确地模拟生物过程，如出生率和死亡率，而不是简单地模拟丰度。它们相对复杂，而且在历史上难以适应它们是一个限制，但它们更适合于探索人口对气候变化或控制策略等异常情况的反应。近年来，人们发展了更好的统计方法来拟合复杂的数据模型，如近似贝叶斯计算（ABC）。皮尔布赖特的数学生物学小组有成功使用尖端统计方法将复杂的生物模型与数据相匹配的历史。在最近的施马伦贝格病毒在北欧爆发期间，该小组使用近似贝叶斯计算将复杂的疾病传播模型拟合到爆发的早期阶段，从而可以推断出关键的疾病传播参数，这些参数提供给欧洲委员会，以制定爆发管理决策。该模型的结论随后得到了实验验证。该小组还具有促进接受决策建模产出的历史。例如，该小组提供的疾病传播模拟最近被用来帮助证明一种新的蓝舌病疫苗产品的许可，并且在2007年英国BTV爆发期间，该小组提供了实时模拟输出，以回应决策者的询问。基于过程的昆虫种群模型是该小组研究媒介传播疾病的一个合乎逻辑的下一步，因为它将允许更确定地预测气候变化和新的控制策略对昆虫媒介种群的影响。由于几个原因，稳定的苍蝇是一个理想的物种。首先，如上所述，该物种在世界许多地区产生了巨大且日益增长的直接影响，并代表着一个巨大的潜在市场。其次，存在与转基因控制产品并行开发模型的机会，然后使用项目产出来设计新菌株的最佳释放策略，以支持其吸收。学术合作伙伴维护着英国唯一的稳定蝇群，并能够通过材料和技术支持该项目。EMBRAPA的同事们最近开始收集大量的种群观察数据，他们愿意为这个项目分享这些数据，并且在之前的研究活动中已经建立了一个种群模型大纲。

项目成果

What Is Stopping the Use of Genetically Modified Insects for Disease Control?

是什么阻止了转基因昆虫用于控制疾病的方法？

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1005830
• 发表时间: 2016-10
• 期刊: PLoS pathogens
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Panjwani A;Wilson A
• 通讯作者: Wilson A