Increasing UK Dietary Fibre - The Case for the Great White British Loaf

大约90%的英国人每天摄入的纤维量低于政府建议的30克。低纤维摄入量与肠癌（英国男性和女性死亡率第二高的癌症）和长期慢性疾病（特别是2型糖尿病和心血管疾病）的高风险有关。白面包占英国面包销量的76%，每天销量约为1200万块。再加上白面包的高受欢迎程度，增加膳食纤维摄入量的需求，以及逐渐而不是突然改变膳食纤维摄入量（例如，从白面包到全麦面包），以保持消费者的注意力，增加白面包的纤维含量很可能有助于增加英国膳食纤维摄入量。目前的纤维强化白面包（例如50:50）使用昂贵的进口全麦，这在英国是无法种植的。我们将使用新开发的纤维增强白面粉，这种面粉可以在英国生长，以保持面包的白色特性并降低成本。白面粉也有可能用于其他烘焙相关产品，如羊角面包、印度烤饼和披萨，这将由该项目的行业利益相关者进行探索。结合行为学、食品技术和预测建模方法，通过与工业界的密切合作，我们的项目将确定英国小麦农业食品链需要进行哪些转型，才能向消费者提供高纤维白面包。我们的项目是与ASDA合作开发的，他们的联合磨坊和面包师（联合技术中心；ATC），种子生产商（Limagrain），英国小麦链相关机构（英国面粉磨坊和农业园艺发展委员会）和谷物经纪人（Agricole）。我们的综合消费者行为和食品技术研究将决定富含纤维的白面包的可接受性，而经济行为研究将关注小麦农业食品供应链（从生产到制造和分销）中的各个部门如何相互关联。第一项工作将确保生产出消费者想要购买的面包，而第二项工作将为我们的小麦链模型（WCM）的发展提供信息。这将与工业界合作开发，并通过英国耕地使用（LUAM模型）、英国季节性天气变化和气候变化对英国国内小麦生产（GLAM-UK模型）和国际进口（GLAM模型）的同步建模来提供信息。LUAM和GLAM模型以前都考虑过小麦，在我们的项目中，GLAM模型将适用于英国。生命周期评估工作将有助于确定哪些环境影响可能受到小麦品种变化的影响，并包括对这些影响的不确定性和敏感性分析。WCM将考虑英国小麦农业食品链的动态，并考虑国内生产与进口面粉的对比。与所有行业合作伙伴及其各自协会建立的行业知情模型将量化在国内和进口小麦需求的复杂背景下增加富含纤维面粉生产所需的转型步骤。我们将利用一系列数据为WCM提供信息，包括公开可用的数据，如农场商业调查，通过我们的行业合作伙伴提供的数据，对英国面粉制造商成员和其他行业利益相关者的调查。在项目期间收集的关于链中的参与者如何相互关联的数据将被分析。它既可以通知我们的WCM，也可以通过我们的项目网站向其他研究人员和公众提供。我们将为小麦链模型创建一个图形用户界面（GUI）。这将允许利益相关者和政策制定者在项目期间和项目结束后使用该模型，该模型的通用性质将意味着它可以很容易地应用于小麦以外的其他农业食品链。

Around 90% of the UK population consumes less than the government recommended 30g of fibre per day. Low fibre intake is linked to higher risk of bowel cancer (the second highest mortality rate cancer for men and women in the UK) and long term chronic diseases (particularly type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease). White bread accounts for 76% of bread sold in the UK with around 12 million loaves being sold each day. Coupled with its high popularity, the need for increased fibre in the diet and gradual rather than abrupt changes to dietary fibre intakes (e.g. from white to wholegrain) to keep consumers onside, increasing the fibre content of white bread is highly likely to contribute to increasing overall UK dietary fibre intake. Current fibre enhanced white breads (e.g. 50:50) use expensive imported wholemeal wheat, which cannot be grown in the UK. We will use newly developed fibre enhanced white flour, which can grow in the UK, to maintain the white nature of the bread and keep costs down. The white flour also has the potential to be used in other bakery related products such as croissants, naan breads and pizzas, which will be explored by industry stakeholders in this project. Utilising a combined behavioural, food technology and predictive modelling approach, informed by close collaboration with industry, our project will identify what transformation in the UK wheat agri-food chain is needed to deliver high fibre white loaf bread to consumers. Our project has been developed in collaboration with ASDA, their associated millers and bakers (Allied Technical Centre; ATC), seed producers (Limagrain), UK wheat chain associated bodies (UK Flour Millers and the Agricultural Horticultural Development Board) and a grain broker (Agricole). Our combined consumer behaviour and food technology studies will determine the acceptability of fibre-rich white bread, whilst economic behavioural studies will focus on how sectors in the wheat agri-food supply chain (production to manufacturing and distribution) relate to one another. The first piece of work will ensure bread is produced which consumers want to purchase, whilst the second will inform the development of our Wheat Chain Model (WCM). This will be developed in collaboration with industry and informed by concurrent modelling of UK farming land usage (LUAM model), UK seasonal weather variation and changing climate impacts on UK domestic wheat production (GLAM-UK model) and international imports (GLAM model). Both the LUAM and GLAM models have previously accounted for wheat, and the GLAM model will be adapted to the UK during our project. Life Cycle Assessment work will help determine which environmental impacts might be affected by the change in wheat cultivars and include an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of these impacts, The WCM will account for the dynamics of the UK wheat agri-food chain and take account of domestic production versus flour received from imports. Industry informed modelling with all industry partners and their respective associations will quantify the transformational steps needed to increase fibre-rich flour production against a complex backdrop of domestic and imported wheat demand. We will utilise a range of data to inform the WCM including publicly available data such as the Farm Business Survey, data available via our industry partners, surveys of UK Flour Miller members and other industry stakeholders. Data collected during the project on how participants in the chain relate to one another will be analysed. It will both inform our WCM, and be available to other researchers and the public via our project website. We will create a graphical user interface (GUI) for our Wheat Chain Model. This will allow stakeholders and policy makers access to the model both during and after the project and the generic nature of the model will mean it can easily be applied to other agri-food chains, besides wheat.