A SOCIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FERTILITY

拟议中的研究将是对生育行为的全面分析 根据1966-77年间伊朗生育率调查(The 伊朗世界生育率调查)。这将是第一次深入研究 基于具有全国代表性的伊朗人样本的伊朗生育率 女人。早先对伊朗生育率调查的分析被中断 根据革命形势，没有发表任何研究报告。这个 研究的第一阶段是对综合家庭和家庭的横断面分析 第二阶段衡量1966、1976/77和1986年的生育率变化， 根据1966年、1976年和1986年人口普查的公布数据 和1976/77年伊朗生育率调查。 在研究的第一阶段，一个多变量多水平模型 各省和家庭生育率的决定因素将估计为 测试一些社会学和人口学假设。事件历史记录 分析将与多层次分析相结合，以开发新的模型 来分析生育的决定因素。宇宙由以下部分组成 所有曾结过婚的妇女，在战争发生时年龄在50岁以下 调查。在宏观变量中，有种族构成、经济 结构，以及各省的计划生育工作。个人 变量将包括妻子的教育、婚前工作等因素 经验和丈夫的职业和教育。在第二阶段 这项研究，1966年、1976年和1986年的婚姻和生育率的变化将 被审查以衡量革命后的社会和法律影响 人口统计行为的变化。

The proposed study will be a comprehensive analysis of fertility behavior in Iran based upon microdata from the 1966-77 Iran Fertility Survey (the Iran World Fertility Survey). This will be the first in-depth study of fertility in Iran based upon a nationally representative sample of Iranian women. Earlier analysis of the Iran Fertility Survey (IFS) was interrupted by the revolutionary situation and no research reports were published. The first phase of the study is a cross-sectional analysis of the IFS and the second phase measures fertility change from 1966, 1976/77 and 1986, which draws upon published data from the 1966, 1976, and 1986 Population Censuses of Iran and the 1976/77 Iran Fertility Survey. In the first phase of the study, a multivariate multilevel model of provincial and household determinants of fertility will be estimated to test a number of sociological and demographic hypotheses. Event history analysis will be synthesized with multilevel analysis to develop new models for analyzing the determinants of childbearing. The universe consists of all ever-married women who are less than 50 years old at the time of the survey. Among the macrovariables are ethnic composition, economic structure, and family planning effort of provinces. The individual variables will include such factors as wife's education, premarital work experience and husband's occupation and education. In the second phase of the study, changes in marriage and fertility from 1966, 1976 and 1986 will be examined to measure the impact of postrevolutionary social and legal changes on demographic behavior.