A SOCIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FERTILITY

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The proposed study will be a comprehensive analysis of fertility behavior in Iran based upon microdata from the 1966-77 Iran Fertility Survey (the Iran World Fertility Survey). This will be the first in-depth study of fertility in Iran based upon a nationally representative sample of Iranian women. Earlier analysis of the Iran Fertility Survey (IFS) was interrupted by the revolutionary situation and no research reports were published. The first phase of the study is a cross-sectional analysis of the IFS and the second phase measures fertility change from 1966, 1976/77 and 1986, which draws upon published data from the 1966, 1976, and 1986 Population Censuses of Iran and the 1976/77 Iran Fertility Survey. In the first phase of the study, a multivariate multilevel model of provincial and household determinants of fertility will be estimated to test a number of sociological and demographic hypotheses. Event history analysis will be synthesized with multilevel analysis to develop new models for analyzing the determinants of childbearing. The universe consists of all ever-married women who are less than 50 years old at the time of the survey. Among the macrovariables are ethnic composition, economic structure, and family planning effort of provinces. The individual variables will include such factors as wife's education, premarital work experience and husband's occupation and education. In the second phase of the study, changes in marriage and fertility from 1966, 1976 and 1986 will be examined to measure the impact of postrevolutionary social and legal changes on demographic behavior.