People, Energy and Buildings: Distribution, Diversity and Dynamics (PEB:D3)

为了使英国能够实现具有法律约束力的碳排放目标，并建立一个有弹性和安全的能源系统，未来几十年需要看到一个历史性的转变：能源供应几乎完全脱碳，开发新的供热系统，全面翻新现有住房。这一转变的关键因素包括：-转向以电力为主的供热系统，该系统基于依赖风力和核能等不太可控的发电来源的脱碳电网。这将对供应商产生相当大的压力，要求他们更好地了解和控制需求。-由于政策或市场力量导致能源价格大幅上涨，如果没有其他干预措施，将大大增加燃料贫穷的程度。向资本密集型发电形式的转变，将把能源账单的重点从季度能源转移到峰值电力需求。多样性取决于个别家庭高峰需求时间的可变性，这将是能源系统规模和运行的关键因素。-旨在显著减少住宅热损失的大规模改造。这将需要并诱发对乘员行为的深刻影响，这需要理解。为了成功地管理这一转变，我们必须迅速更好地理解人为因素（社会、经济、行为）、新住宅技术和新能源之间的相互作用。现有的能源使用行为模型没有捕捉到能源使用行为的可变性，而是依赖于平均值。最近的研究已经开始揭示不同群体的居住者之间的深刻差异，例如，他们倾向于将能源效率提高的好处作为更高的舒适度，而不是减少能源需求（回收）。除非在模型中明确说明这些差异，否则政策和投资决策的针对性可能会不恰当。住房存量模型的使用可能会使这种情况更加复杂，这些模型只提供了对需求时间变化的最粗略的见解，而没有提供对大规模可再生能源和核能发电的成本效益管理至关重要的需求和供应的小时相互作用。显然，需要新的工具和方法。该提案旨在通过汇集一个由社会科学家、建筑科学家和能源系统建模师组成的国际多学科团队来开发这样的工具，他们将在一个协作的跨学科分析、评估和解释框架内工作，并利用新的数据来源来构建新颖的、雄心勃勃的动态供需模型。这种组合以前很少应用于该行业，也从未达到过这种规模。从这项工作中，我们期待以下创新：1。基于新的可用数据集和新的分析方法，对能源消耗行为的复杂性和可变性有了新的见解。2. 2 .新模型的开发，使得在动态的小时需求-供应系统模型中，第一次将行为、建筑库存和能源供应连贯地联系起来成为可能。通过跨学科的批判性分析、评估和解释过程，制定战略方案，从模型中提取见解，并明确其实际含义和应用。所有这些都将使我们能够解决以下问题。内部温度是如何变化的？房屋的能源效率改善与住户行为如何相互作用？回收的真正影响是什么？英国如何才能最大限度地降低改造住房存量和更新能源供应系统的总成本？这将如何影响政府政策、能源供应公司的商业战略以及那些参与住宅管理和改造的人？

To enable the UK to meet legally binding carbon targets and establish a resilient and secure energy system, the coming decades need to see an historic transition: the almost complete decarbonisation of energy supply, the development of a new heat supply system and the comprehensive refurbishment of the housing stock.Key elements in this transition include: - A shift to a largely-electric heat supply system, based on a decarbonised grid reliant on less controllable sources of generation such as wind and nuclear. This will produce considerable pressure on suppliers to better understand and control demand.- Significant increases in energy price, either as a result of policy or of market forces, which without other interventions will significantly increase levels of fuel poverty. Shifts to more capital intensive forms of generation will move the focus of energy bills from quarterly energy to peak power demand. Diversity, which depends on the variability of the timing of peak demands for individual households, will be a crucial factor in sizing and operating energy systems. - Large-scale renovation aimed at significantly reducing heat loss of dwellings. This will both require and induce profound impacts in occupant behaviour which need to be understood.To manage this transition successfully we must rapidly achieve a better understanding of the interplay between human factors (social, economic, behavioural), new technologies for dwellings, and new sources of energy. Existing models of energy-using behaviour do not capture the variability of energy using behaviours, instead relying on averages. Recent work has begun to reveal profound differences between different groups of occupants for example in their tendency to take benefits of energy efficiency improvements as higher comfort rather than a reduction in energy demand (take-back). Unless these differences are made explicit in models, policies and investment decisions are likely to be targeted inappropriately. This is likely to be compounded by use of models of the housing stock that provide only the crudest insight into the temporal variation of demand and none into the hourly interplay of demand and supply that will be critical to the cost-effective management of large tranches of renewable and nuclear generation. It is clear that new tools and approaches are needed.This proposal aims to develop such tools by bringing together an international multi-disciplinary team of social scientists, building scientists and energy systems modellers who will work within a collaborative interdisciplinary analysis, evaluation and interpretation framework and draw on new sources of data to build novel and ambitious, dynamic demand-supply models. This is a combination rarely before applied to this sector and never at this scale.From this work, we anticipate the following innovations: 1. New insights into the complexity and variability of energy consuming behaviour based on newly available data sets and novel analytical approaches. 2. Development of new models making it possible for the first time to coherently link behaviour, the built stock and the energy supply in dynamic, hourly demand-supply system models.3. Development of strategic scenarios drawing out the insights from the models and making explicit their practical implications and application, through an interdisciplinary process of critical analysis, evaluation and interpretation.All of this will enable us to address the following questions. How are internal temperatures changing? How do energy efficiency improvements in houses and occupant behaviour interact? What is the real impact of take-back? How can the UK minimise the combined costs of renovating the housing stock and renewing energy supply systems? How should this affect government policy, the business strategies of energy supply companies and those involved in the management and renovation of dwellings?