Coherent inference over a network of probabilistic systems for decision support with applications to food security.

通过概率系统网络进行连贯推理，为决策支持及其在粮食安全方面的应用提供支持。

• 批准号: EP/K039628/1
• 负责人: James Smith
• 金额: $ 43.23万
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FK039628%2F1
• 关键词: Coherent; inference; over; network; probabilistic

Different panels of experts each provide their judgments together with supporting evidence through the outputs of their own probabilistic models. These then need to be networked together via their inputs and outputs to provide a unifying inferential foundation to underpin decision support. The different panels of experts share as common knowledge qualitative features of the domain often expressed as an agreed graphical model. A subjective expected utility maximising policy maker now plans to adopt the probabilistic judgments of the appropriate domain expert panels as her own. She will then use this unifying statistical model to draw together the disparate evidence into a single coherent and defensible whole and use this to guide her policy evaluation. We will develop this formal and defensible statistical methodology. Thus we will find sufficient conditions for different types of dynamic graphical models to remain coherent before and after relevant evidence is accommodated into the system. When the integrity of the system is violated we will develop methods which appropriately measure the extent of this violation. Recent advances in algebraic statistics will be used not only to investigate how such demands for coherence might be relaxed when the algebraic form of a user's utility function is known but will also guide associated computational algorithms. The development will be directed by the needs of policy makers and the structure and information bases used by experts and researchers into UK food security

不同的专家小组各自通过各自的概率模型输出提供他们的判断以及支持证据。然后需要通过它们的输入和输出将它们联网在一起，以提供一个统一的推理基础来支持决策支持。不同的专家小组作为共同知识共享领域的定性特征，这些特征通常表示为商定的图形模型。主观期望效用最大化政策制定者现在计划采用适当领域专家小组的概率判断作为自己的判断。然后，她将使用这个统一的统计模型，将不同的证据汇集成一个连贯的、可辩护的整体，并用它来指导她的政策评估。我们将发展这一正式的、站得住脚的统计方法。因此，我们将发现在相关证据被纳入系统之前和之后，不同类型的动态图形模型保持一致的充分条件。当系统的完整性受到侵犯时，我们将制定适当衡量这种侵犯程度的方法。代数统计的最新进展不仅将用于研究当用户效用函数的代数形式已知时，如何放松对一致性的要求，而且还将指导相关的计算算法。这一发展将根据决策者的需要以及专家和研究人员在英国粮食安全方面所使用的结构和信息库来指导

项目成果

Eliciting of preferences and uncertainty: processes and procedures

引发偏好和不确定性：流程和程序

• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: Barons, M.J.

Using graphical models and multi-attribute utility theory for probabilistic uncertainty handling in large systems, with application to the nuclear emergency management

使用图模型和多属性效用理论处理大型系统中的概率不确定性，并应用于核应急管理

• DOI: 10.1109/icdew.2013.6547448
• 发表时间: 2013
• 作者: Leonelli M

Partial correlation graphical LASSO

偏相关图形LASSO

• DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12675
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
• 影响因子: 1
• 作者: Carter J

Balancing the Elicitation Burden and the Richness of Expert Input When Quantifying Discrete Bayesian Networks

• DOI: 10.1111/risa.13772
• 发表时间: 2021-06-19
• 期刊: RISK ANALYSIS
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Barons, Martine J.;Mascaro, Steven;Hanea, Anca M.
• 通讯作者: Hanea, Anca M.

A Decision Support System for Addressing Food Security in the United Kingdom

解决英国粮食安全问题的决策支持系统

• DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12771
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Statistics in Society
• 作者: Barons M