EPSRC and ESRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Quantification and Management of Risk & Uncertainty in Complex Systems & Environments.

EPSRC 和 ESRC 风险量化和管理博士培训中心

• 批准号: EP/L015927/1
• 金额: $ 529.96万
• 依托单位: University of Liverpool
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Training Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FL015927%2F1
• 关键词: EPSRC; ESRC; Centre; Doctoral; Training

Risk is the potential of experiencing a loss when a system does not operate as expected due to uncertainties. Its assessment requires the quantification of both the system failure potential and the multi-faceted failure consequences, which affect further systems. Modern industries (including the engineering and financial sectors) require increasingly large and complex models to quantify risks that are not confined to single disciplines but cross into possibly several other areas. Disasters such as hurricane Katrina, the Fukushima nuclear incident and the global financial crisis show how failures in technical and management systems cause consequences and further failures in technological, environmental, financial, and social systems, which are all inter-related. This requires a comprehensive multi-disciplinary understanding of all aspects of uncertainty and risk and measures for risk management, reduction, control and mitigation as well as skills in applying the necessary mathematical, modelling and computational tools for risk oriented decision-making. This complexity has to be considered in very early planning stages, for example, for the realisation of green energy or nuclear power concepts and systems, where benefits and risks have to be considered from various angles. The involved parties include engineering and energy companies, banks, insurance and re-insurance companies, state and local governments, environmental agencies, the society both locally and globally, construction companies, service and maintenance industries, emergency services, etc.The CDT is focussed on training a new generation of highly-skilled graduates in this particular area of engineering, mathematics and the environmental sciences based at the Liverpool Institute for Risk and Uncertainty. New challenges will be addressed using emerging probabilistic technologies together with generalised uncertainty models, simulation techniques, algorithms and large-scale computing power. Skills required will be centred in the application of mathematics in areas of engineering, economics, financial mathematics, and psychology/social science, to reflect the complexity and inter-relationship of real world systems. The CDT addresses these needs with multi-disciplinary training and skills development on a common mathematical platform with associated computational tools tailored to user requirements. The centre reflects this concept with three major components:(1) Development and enhancement of mathematical and computational skills;(2) Customisation and implementation of models, tools and techniques according to user requirements; and(3) Industrial and overseas university placements to ensure industrial and academic impact of the research.This will develop graduates with solid mathematical skills applied on a systems level, who can translate numerical results into languages of engineering and other disciplines to influence end-users including policy makers. Existing technologies for the quantification and management of uncertainties and risks have yet to achieve their significant potential benefit for industry. Industrial implementation is presently held back because of a lack of multidisciplinary training and application. The Centre addresses this problem directly to realise a significant step forward, producing a culture change in quantification and management of risk and uncertainty technically as well as educationally through the cohort approach to PGR training.

风险是当系统由于不确定性而不能按预期运行时可能遭受的损失。它的评估需要对系统潜在故障和多方面的故障后果进行量化，这些故障后果会影响到进一步的系统。现代工业（包括工程和金融部门）需要越来越大和复杂的模型来量化风险，这些风险不局限于单一学科，而是可能跨越其他几个领域。卡特里娜飓风、福岛核事故和全球金融危机等灾难表明，技术和管理系统的失败如何造成后果，以及技术、环境、金融和社会系统的进一步失败，这些都是相互关联的。这需要对不确定性和风险的所有方面以及管理、减少、控制和缓解风险的措施有全面的多学科理解，并需要具备运用必要的数学、建模和计算工具进行面向风险决策的技能。这种复杂性必须在非常早期的规划阶段加以考虑，例如，为了实现绿色能源或核电概念和系统，必须从各个角度考虑收益和风险。所涉及的各方包括工程和能源公司、银行、保险和再保险公司、州和地方政府、环境机构、本地和全球社会、建筑公司、服务和维修行业、应急服务等。CDT专注于在这一特定工程领域培养新一代高技能毕业生。利物浦风险与不确定性研究所的数学和环境科学。新的挑战将利用新兴的概率技术以及广义不确定性模型、仿真技术、算法和大规模计算能力来解决。所需技能将集中在数学在工程、经济学、金融数学和心理学/社会科学领域的应用上，以反映现实世界系统的复杂性和相互关系。CDT通过在公共数学平台上进行多学科培训和技能开发来满足这些需求，该平台具有根据用户需求量身定制的相关计算工具。该中心通过三个主要组成部分反映了这一概念：(1)发展和提高数学和计算技能；(2)根据用户需求定制和实施模型、工具和技术；(3)工业和海外大学实习，以确保研究的工业和学术影响。这将培养毕业生在系统层面应用扎实的数学技能，他们可以将数值结果转化为工程和其他学科的语言，以影响包括政策制定者在内的最终用户。对不确定性和风险进行量化和管理的现有技术尚未实现其对工业的重大潜在效益。由于缺乏多学科培训和应用，工业实施目前受到阻碍。该中心直接解决这一问题，以实现重大的进步，通过对PGR培训的队列方法，在技术上和教育上对风险和不确定性的量化和管理进行文化变革。