Centre for Energy Systems Integration

能源系统对英国工业和社会的未来至关重要。然而，能源三难困境带来了许多复杂的、相互关联的挑战。当前的综合能源系统建模和模拟技术存在一系列缺陷，这些缺陷削弱了它们为改进的政策和规划决策制定和提供信息的能力，从而阻碍了英国实现巨大的潜在好处。目前的方法以高水平的静态模型为特点，这些模型产生的答案或预测高度受制于一套关键的简化假设，因此不能高度信任地依赖。它们无法提供对真实能源系统的物理、工程、社会、空间、时间或随机方面的足够准确或详细的综合表示。面对商业和技术发展的不确定性，以及气候变化、行为动态和技术相互依存的影响，它们还难以制定强有力的长期计划。能源系统集成中心(CESI)的目标是解决这一弱点，并降低与确保和提供英国完全一体化的未来能源系统相关的风险。这将通过开发一种截然不同的整体建模、模拟和优化方法来实现，该方法利用来自学术界、工业界和政府网络的现有高级工具，并将它们与使用全尺度多向量演示系统验证的详细模型相结合。CESI将进行不确定性量化，以确定模型提供的关于现实世界的稳健信息，并确定应将改进模型的努力集中在哪里，以最大限度地了解现实世界。这种方法以及相关的模型和数据将向能源界提供，并将为当前的综合能源系统研究提供严格的基础，从而使未来的能源系统规划和政策制定能够以比目前更大的信心进行。CESI是由五所研究密集型大学和支撑战略合作伙伴西门子(对中心的贡献价值为710万GB)组成的独特合作伙伴关系。纽卡斯尔大学、达勒姆大学、爱丁堡大学、赫里奥特-瓦特大学和苏塞克斯大学拥有价值超过1亿GB的RCUK能源组合。该中心将有一个实体基地，即纽卡斯尔大学，这将为中心在新的GB 60M城市科学大楼中腾出空间。这座建筑将包含世界级的设施，从这些设施可以领导数字城市可持续发展的国际研究，还将实际连接到一个完整的仪表化多向量能源系统。这座建筑将有一个城市天文台，它将收集来自全市的各种数据，以及一个3D决策剧院，它将使实时数据能够被分析、探索并能够对假设进行测试。CESI的工作的主要目标是开发一个模块化的即插即用环境，在这个环境中，能源系统的组成部分可以被详细地协同模拟和优化。在没有孤立地考虑技术的情况下，将部门视为一个相互关联的整体，可以检查跨技术和用户的相互作用和反弹效应。建议的方法是一种系统架构师概念，以详细的多矢量、集成的模拟和各种尺度的优化的双轨方法为基础，包括不确定性，以及大规模的演示和实验设施，以测试、验证和评估解决方案和方案。系统架构师对能源系统规划采取完全集成、平衡、长期、透明的方法，不受竖井和短期思维的束缚。

Energy systems are vitally important to the future of UK industry and society. However, the energy trilemma presents many complex interconnected challenges. Current integrated energy systems modelling and simulation techniques suffer from a series of shortcomings that undermine their ability to develop and inform improved policy and planning decisions, therefore preventing the UK realising huge potential benefits. The current approach is characterised by high level static models which produce answers or predictions that are highly subject to a set of critical simplifying assumptions and therefore cannot be relied upon with a high degree of confidence. They are unable to provide sufficiently accurate or detailed, integrated representations of the physics, engineering, social, spatial temporal or stochastic aspects of real energy systems. They also struggle to generate robust long term plans in the face of uncertainties in commercial and technological developments and the effects of climate change, behavioural dynamics and technological interdependencies.The aim of the Centre for Energy Systems Integration (CESI) is to address this weakness and reduce the risks associated with securing and delivering a fully integrated future energy system for the UK. This will be achieved through the development of a radically different, holistic modelling, simulation and optimisation methodology which makes use of existing high level tools from academic, industry and government networks and couples them with detailed models validated using full scale multi vector demonstration systems. CESI will carry out uncertainty quantification to identify the robust messages which the models are providing about the real world, and to identify where effort on improving models should be focused in order to maximise learning about the real world. This approach, and the associated models and data, will be made available to the energy community and will provide a rigorous underpinning for current integrated energy systems research, so that future energy system planning and policy formulation can be carried out with a greater degree of confidence than is currently possible.CESI is a unique partnership of five research intensive universities and underpinning strategic partner Siemens (contribution value of £7.1m to the centre) The Universities of Newcastle, Durham, Edinburgh, Heriot-Watt and Sussex have a combined RCUK energy portfolio worth over £100m. The centre will have a physical base as Newcastle University which will release space for the centre in the new £60m Urban Sciences Building. This building will contain world-class facilities from which to lead international research into digitally enabled urban sustainability and will also be physically connected to a full scale instrumented multi vector energy system. The building will feature an Urban Observatory, which will collect a diverse set of data from across the city, and a 3D Decision Theatre which will enable real-time data to be analysed, explored and the enable the testing of hypotheses.The main aim of CESI's work is to develop a modular 'plug-n-play' environment in which components of the energy system can be co-simulated and optimised in detail. With no technology considered in isolation, considering sectors as an interlinked whole, the interactions and rebound effects across technologies and users can be examined. The methodology proposed is a system architect concept underpinned by a twin track approach of detailed multi-vector, integrated simulation and optimisation at various scales incorporating uncertainty, coupled with large scale demonstration and experimental facilities in order to test, validate and evaluate solutions and scenarios. A System Architect takes a fully integrated, balanced, long term, transparent approach to energy system planning unfettered by silos and short term thinking.