From Models To Decisions (M2D)

从模型到决策 (M2D)

• 批准号: EP/P016774/1
• 负责人: Peter Challenor
• 金额: $ 44.34万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FP016774%2F1
• 关键词: Models; Decisions; M2D

Today many decisions are made using evidence from numerical models. Such models are often large and complex and often appear to be without uncertainty. However, even if the model is itself deterministic in that it gives the same result for the same set of inputs, the inputs are almost always uncertain and the model structure itself is not fully known. Thus any model result is uncertain. Determining the uncertainties in models is often referred to as uncertainty quantification. This is a hard problem; even for the forward problem where we know the uncertainty in the model inputs and we want to propagate it to the model outputs. Even harder is inverse modelling when (uncertain) observations are used to reduce the uncertainty in the inputs. Once we have done both inverse and forward modelling we can estimate the uncertainty in the model output that is being used to help make the decision. However, in any decision the evidence from the model is rarely the only consideration. The decision maker has his or her own uncertainties and biases and these must be taken into account and understood. Two decision makers given the same evidence will often make different decisions. Presenting the evidence to decision makers (often untrained in mathematics and statistics) is difficult and complex. The network will look at new ways of presenting narratives and visualisations of uncertainty to decision makers.

今天，使用数值模型的证据做出了许多决定。这样的模型通常是大而复杂的，并且通常似乎没有不确定性。但是，即使模型本身是确定性的，它为相同的输入提供了相同的结果，输入几乎总是不确定的，并且模型结构本身并不完全知道。因此，任何模型结果都是不确定的。确定模型中的不确定性通常称为不确定性定量。这是一个棘手的问题；即使对于远期问题，我们知道模型输入中的不确定性，并且我们希望将其传播到模型输出。当使用（不确定的）观察来减少输入中的不确定性时，更难的是反向建模。一旦我们完成了反向和正向建模，我们就可以估算用于帮助做出决定的模型输出中的不确定性。但是，在任何决定中，该模型的证据很少是唯一的考虑。决策者有自己的不确定性和偏见，必须考虑并理解这些偏见。提供相同证据的两个决策者通常会做出不同的决定。向决策者（通常在数学和统计数据中未经培训）向决策者提供证据是困难而复杂的。该网络将研究向决策者展示不确定性的叙述和可视化的新方法。

项目成果

Modulation of the relationship between summer temperatures in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Arctic over the past millennium by external forcings

近千年来青藏高原与北极夏季气温受外强迫作用的调节关系

• DOI: 10.1017/qua.2021.3
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Quaternary Research
• 影响因子: 2.3
• 作者: Shi Feng;Duan Anmin;Yin Qiuzhen;Bruun John T.;Xiao Cunde;Guo Zhengtang
• 通讯作者: Guo Zhengtang

Seasonality of Oithona similis and Calanus helgolandicus reproduction and abundance: contrasting responses to environmental variation at a shelf site

• DOI: 10.1093/plankt/fby007
• 发表时间: 2018-05-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH
• 影响因子: 2.1
• 作者: Cornwell, L. E.;Findlay, H. S.;Atkinson, A.
• 通讯作者: Atkinson, A.

A Mechanism for Pacific Interdecadal Resonances

• DOI: 10.1029/2018jc013752
• 发表时间: 2018-09
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
• 作者: J. Skákala;J. Bruun

Probabilistic Landslide-Generated Tsunamis in the Indus Canyon, NW Indian Ocean, Using Statistical Emulation

使用统计模拟研究印度洋西北部印度河峡谷发生山体滑坡概率引发的海啸

• DOI: 10.1007/s00024-019-02187-3
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Pure and Applied Geophysics
• 影响因子: 2
• 作者: Salmanidou D

A re-evaluation of the Earth's surface temperature response to radiative forcing

重新评估地球表面温度对辐射强迫的响应

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfa50
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Young P