LATENT: RESIDENTIAL HEAT AS AN ENERGY SYSTEM SERVICE

根据2008年《气候变化法》的定义，英国的碳排放目标规定到2050年减排80%，政府最近将同年的减排目标下调至净零排放。2017年，英国17%的碳排放与住宅部门的非电力使用(64.1公吨二氧化碳)有关，其中大部分与天然气采暖、烹饪和生活热水有关。因此，英国必须降低居住热量的碳含量，才能实现其气候变化目标，但与电动汽车(EVS)相结合，这可能会导致英国每年的电力需求增加200-300%。就规模部署而言，空气源热泵(ASHP)无论是单独运行还是作为混合燃气系统运行，都是一项关键技术，因为它们不是特定地点的，适用于新建住房和翻新。然而，英国的低压电力网络将无法在不受限制的电加热或电动汽车充电负载下运行。这两种负荷都必须是可推迟的或计划的，以支持电网并在一定范围内维持变电站和馈线。家用电供暖有可能作为一种重要的可推迟负荷运行，潜在地正在寻求了解和利用这种负荷。这可以提供不同规模的好处，即英国(能源安全和碳目标)、DNO(分布式网络运营商作为电网支持)、热泵供应商(通过展示电网附加值)、家庭(在降低账单和避免动态电价峰值方面)和电力供应商(通过应用聚合技术将能源服务成本降至最低)。因此，潜在的关键目标是能够预测具有第三方可推迟供热控制的电供暖(主要是ASHP)的客户对馈线/变电站级别的低压网络的影响。在这种情况下，第三方控制将通过能源服务供应商进行，与DNO不同，家庭与其有现有的财务合同关系。LATENT将通过严格的现场试验向行业告知第三方控制可推迟供暖的潜力，并在这样做的过程中加速向脱碳家庭供暖的过渡。LATENT将确定住户个性特征(海洋特征：开放、认真、外向、随和、神经质)以及更传统的人口普查指标(如教育程度、房屋类型等)的影响，以提供一个多元回归模型来描述家庭层面的可推迟供热减少。然后，可以分析变电站或馈线的户型组合(10%的C+分离式，30%的E-Flat等)，以产生一个复合的变电站水平，延迟热减少估计。该模型将通过与潜在的工业合作伙伴IGLOO Energy的现场试验来实现。IGloo拥有支持远程第三方控制的智能供暖系统和ASHP的客户基础。潜伏将通过焦点小组和调查测试(I)住户对延迟供暖的声明接受程度(在降温和持续时间方面)，(Ii)通过采暖季节现场试验实际接受供暖延迟，以及(Iii)以IGLOO的客户群为样本，实施商业可推迟供暖收费。

The UK's carbon targets, as defined by the Climate Change Act of 2008, specify an emissions reduction of 80% by 2050, which the government has recently revised down to 'net zero' for the same year. In 2017, 17% of the UK's carbon emissions were associated with non-electric use in the residential sector (64.1 Mt CO2), the majority of which were associated with natural gas space heating, cooking and domestic hot water. The UK must therefore decarbonise residential heat to be able to meet its climate change targets, but, in combination with electric vehicles (EVs), this could lead to a 200-300% increase in the UK's annual electricity demand.In terms of deployment at scale, Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHP) operating either in isolation or as a hybrid gas system appear a key technology as they are not site specific and are applicable to both new build housing and retrofit. The UK's low voltage (LV) electricity network will not however, be able to operate with unconstrained electrical heating or EV charging loads. Both loads must be deferrable or scheduled in a manner to support the electricity network and maintain substations and feeders within limits.Household electric heating has the potential to operate as a significant deferrable load which LATENT is seeking to understand and harness. This can provide benefits across scales, namely to the UK (energy security and carbon targets), DNO (Distributed Network Operator as grid support), heat pump suppliers (by demonstrating added grid value), householders (in terms of bill reduction and avoidance of peaking dynamic tariffs) and electricity suppliers by applying aggregation techniques to minimise energy service costs. The key aim of LATENT therefore, is to be able to predict the impact of customers with electrical heating (predominantly ASHP) operating with 3rd party deferrable heating control on the LV network at the feeder / substation level. 3rd party control in this context would be through the energy service supplier, with whom, unlike the DNO, a household has an existing financial contract relationship. LATENT will inform industry of the potential of 3rd party control of deferrable heat through a rigorous field experiment, and, in doing so, accelerate the transition to decarbonised household heating.LATENT will determine the influence of householder personality trait (OCEAN traits: either positive / negative as Openness, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism) alongside more traditional Census metrics such as educational attainment, house type etc to deliver a multi-variate regression model to describe deferrable heat reduction at the household level. A substation or feeder can then be analysed in terms of its household type mix (10% C+ detached, 30% E- flat etc) to produce a composite substation level, deferrable heat reduction estimate.This model will be realised through field trials with LATENT's industrial partner, Igloo Energy. Igloo have a customer base with smart heating systems and ASHP which support remote 3rd party control. LATENT will test (i) householder's stated acceptance to deferral of heating (in terms of temperature drop and duration) through focus groups and surveys, (ii) actual acceptance of heat deferral through heating season field trials, and (iii) operation of a commercial deferrable heat tariff with a sample of Igloo's customer base.