PROBABILITIES OF DRUNKEN DRIVING AMONG U S PUBLIC

酒后驾车是一个重大的公共卫生问题，但无论是 有关问题的实际发生率和普遍程度尚不清楚。 发展 真正有效的预防、威慑和干预手段 由于缺乏信息，继续受到阻碍。 长期目标：本提案旨在解决这一问题 一个新的和更有区别的方法，一个应该 为准确确定实际的 酒后驾车的发生率和流行率。 这种方法应该 也提供了统计基础，估计的概率 在酒精的影响下驾驶（DUI）在公众中， 以及驾车的公众--包括被判酒后驾车的司机。 这一方法基于四个同时进行的相互关联的项目， 关注的是美国不同但相互依存的部分， 酒后驾车公众：（1）一般成年人，（2）夜间 （3）第一次被定罪的DUI罪犯人口，以及（4） 第二次被定罪的酒后驾车罪犯人口。 基本原理来自于 分析这些相关人群的已知特征， 确定那些“因酒精而陷入困境”的人之间的相似性， 以及他们和那些不这样做的人之间的区别。 具体目标包括开发、试点测试和 交叉验证统计方法（基于四个总体 （1）估计驾驶的概率， 高，低，或没有酒精的个人在选定的子集的一般 人口;（2）估计零驾驶的发生率和流行率， 低、中和高血液酒精浓度;和（3）早期 识别和诊断高风险问题饮酒司机。 具体目标将通过对以下因素的多变量分析来实现： 大多数受试者的三个数据领域：（1）自我报告的背景 数据，加上酒后驾车和酒后驾车信息， 态度;（2）正式的驾驶记录，包括接触前和接触后，以及（3） 在选定的时间呼吸酒精（例如，被捕时， 会议和试用期审查）。 将使用这三个域中的数据 对于选定的交叉验证，以及亚群描述， 关于酒精计划的遵守和未来醉酒的警告 早期识别和诊断高风险饮酒 司机

Drinking and driving is a major public health problem, but neither the actual incidence nor prevalence of the problem is known. The development of truly effective means for preventing, deterring, and intervening continue to be hampered by this lack of information. Long-Term Objectives: The present proposal is designed to address this problem with a new and more differentiated approach, one which should provide the methodological basis for accurately determining the actual incidence and prevalence of driving after drinking. This approach should also provide the statistical basis for estimating the probabilities of driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI) among the general public, as well as among the motoring public--including drivers convicted of DUI. This approach is based upon four concurrent, interrelated projects which are focused on different, but interdependent segments of the American drinking and driving public: (1) general adult population, (2) nocturnal driving population, (3) convicted first DUI offender population, and (4) convicted second DUI offender population. The basic rationale derives from analyzing the known characteristics in these interrelated populations to determine the similarities among those who "get into trouble with alcohol," as well as the differences between them and those who do not. The specific aims consist of developing, pilot testing, and cross-validating statistical methodologies (based upon the four populations and prior research) for: (1) estimating the probabilities of driving with high, low, or no alcohol for individuals in selected subsets of the general population; (2) estimating the incidence and prevalence of driving at zero, low, medium, and high blood alcohol concentrations; and (3) early identification and diagnosis of high-risk problem-drinker drivers. The specific aims will be accomplished through multivariate analyses of three domains of data for most subjects: (1) self-reported background data, plus drinking, driving, and drinking-and-driving information and attitudes; (2) official driver record, both pre-and post-contact, and (3) breath alcohol at selected times (e.g., when arrested, appearance at sessions, and probation reviews). Data in these three domains will be used for selected cross-validations, as well as for subpopulation description, prognoses regarding both alcohol program compliance and future drunken driving, and early identification and diagnosis of high-risk drinking drivers.