Demand Modelling and Predictive Police Positioning for Effective Service Provision

在当今社会，经济压力意味着资源被挤压，一个有价值的服务的最终结果仍然是必要的。能够根据需要分配工作人员并最佳利用这些资源，对于企业的长久发展至关重要。就紧急服务而言，特别是警方而言，要善用资源，即负责回应市民召唤的本地警务人员，便须安排最佳位置（位置设定），以便作出回应，尽量缩短到达事故现场的时间，尽量减少未能在目标时间到达的风险，以及尽量提高公众的能见度。这些位置需要反映此类需求呼叫的“热点”。为了更好地提供服务，并需要可见，这些热点需要是路线，而不是固定点，这将取决于一天中的时间，一周中的一天和一年中的一个月。与此同时，有关人员需要一定的稳定性，以便能够实际管理他们的轮班。 在这项研究建议中，使用历史数据以及预测模型工具，以促进根据对警察的规定需求分配和安置工作人员的最佳战略。这就需要扩大设施定位方法，以处理在变化和不确定环境中的真实的时间、可变和静态定位。即将生成的建模工具将提供一个自动化机制，以生成最佳的干事位置定位，并能够促进固定和预测巡逻路线，以最大限度地提高在最短时间内满足需求的能力。目前在警察部队中看不到这种复杂程度。警方具备预测能力，再加上最佳的反应，有助于减轻社会对警方在犯罪方面的作用的恐惧。对犯罪的潜在影响是巨大的。

In today's society where economic pressures mean resources are being squeezed, the end outcome of a valued service is still necessary. Being able to allocate staff as required and making the best use of these resources is critical for the longevity of business. For the emergency services, in particular the Police Force, making the best use of the resources, namely the Local Police Officers, that respond to demand from calls from the public, requires optimal positioning (location setting) to facilitate the response minimizing time to reach the incident, minimizing the risk of failure to reach target arrival times and maximizing the visibility to the public. These locations need to reflect the 'hot spots' for such demand calls. For a more enhanced service provision and the need to be visible these hot spots need to be routes, rather than stationary points, which will vary depending on the time of day, day of the week and month of the year. At the same time the personnel involved need some stability in terms of being able to practically manage their shift. Within this research proposal, the use of historical data, as well as predictive modelling tools, are used to facilitate the best strategy to allocate and position staff based on the prescribed demand for Police Officers. This will require methods of facility location to be extended to deal with real time, variable and static positioning, in a changing and uncertain environment. The modelling tool to be generated will provide an automated mechanism to produce optimal Officer location positioning, with the ability to facilitate stationary and predictive patrol routes to maximize the ability to meet demand in the shortest amount of time. This level of sophistication is not currently seen within the force. For the Police to have the predictive capability coupled with the most optimal response serves to alleviate fears of society as to the role of Police with regards to crime. The potential impact on Crime is immense.