Cold Related Deaths and the Effect of Nudging the Elderly: Evidence from the Longitudinal Studies

与寒冷相关的死亡和轻推老年人的效果：来自纵向研究的证据

• 批准号: ES/K004298/1
• 负责人: Ian Walker
• 金额: $ 20.04万
• 依托单位: Lancaster University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FK004298%2F1
• 关键词: Cold; Related; Deaths; Effect; Nudging

The existing official methodology to measure cold-related deaths is crude - just a comparison of average mortality rates across seasons. Moreover extremely strong inferences have been made about the impact of cold through simple interpolation. Previous research has shown that although mortality does increase as it gets colder, temperature only explains a small amount of the variance in winter mortality, and high levels of excess winter mortality can occur during relatively mild winters. US evidence suggests that latitude plays a role - places where it is usually cold have few cold related deaths. There is a strong suggestion, although never formally tested, that the relationship is highly nonlinear and that unexpected cold is more dangerous than expected cold weather. Thus, the relationship between temperature and mortality is complex. In particular, the dynamic effects and nonlinearities in the relationship requires serious attention. We propose to provide a detailed investigation of the impact of cold on mortality - taking account of dynamics, nonlinearities, and socio-economic characteristics. In addition we aim to investigate how winter fuel payments (WFP) affects the relationship. The idea of WFP is to provide cash to keep old people warm when it's cold - so as to keep them well. So, if WFP "works", it does so by "nudging" household spending on fuel, so raising heat levels, and reducing the adverse effects of cold on health - by more than an equivalent rise in the state pension . Evidence on the extent to which the labeling of transfers affects how they are spent is mixed but there has been much talk of policy that can "nudge" individual decision making . WFP provides an opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of one such idea. Indeed, it provides an unusually "clean" test because of the nature of its implementation - in particular, it is not means-tested and the take-up rate is close to 100% so there is no selection issue to take account of. Moreover, the UK provides an excellent environment to test the proposition that it affects the relationship between mortality and weather separately from a general mortality effect because it is a long county and has wide variation in weather patterns across the country.WFP is a tax-free payment made to individuals aged 60 or over living in GB to help them with their heating costs over the winter months. Older people are targeted since they are particularly vulnerable to the effects of cold weather during the winter months and are more likely to be on fixed incomes. The basic Winter Fuel payment is made to more than 12 million people in GB (of which 1.1m are in Scotland). The total cost was over £2.7 billion last year. WFP amounts to about 10% of an average retired household total annual fuel bill. The history of WFP provides a number of opportunities to investigate the extent to which WFP has had a causal impact on the seasonal and weather patterns in mortality.

现有的官方方法来衡量寒冷相关的死亡是粗略的-只是比较不同季节的平均死亡率。此外，通过简单的内插法，人们对寒冷的影响做出了非常有力的推论。先前的研究表明，虽然死亡率确实会随着天气变冷而增加，但温度只能解释冬季死亡率的一小部分变化，而且在相对温和的冬季可能会发生高水平的冬季死亡率。美国的证据表明，纬度发挥了作用-地方通常是寒冷很少有寒冷相关的死亡。有一个强烈的建议，虽然从来没有正式测试，这种关系是高度非线性的，意想不到的寒冷比预期的寒冷天气更危险。因此，温度和死亡率之间的关系是复杂的。特别是，动态效应和非线性的关系需要认真注意。我们建议对寒冷对死亡率的影响进行详细调查-考虑到动态，非线性和社会经济特征。此外，我们的目标是调查如何冬季燃料支付（粮食计划署）影响的关系。世界粮食计划署的想法是提供现金，让老人在寒冷的时候保持温暖，从而让他们保持健康。因此，如果世界粮食计划署“起作用”，它是通过“推动”家庭在燃料上的支出，从而提高热量水平，减少寒冷对健康的不利影响--通过增加相当于国家养老金的数额。关于转移支付的标签在多大程度上影响其支出方式的证据好坏参半，但人们一直在谈论可以“推动”个人决策的政策。世界粮食计划署提供了一个机会来证明这种想法的有效性。事实上，这项计划提供了一个异常“干净”的测试，这是由于其实施的性质-特别是，它不需要进行经济状况调查，而且参加率接近100%，因此没有选择问题需要考虑。此外，英国提供了一个很好的环境来测试它影响死亡率和天气之间的关系，而不是一般的死亡率影响，因为它是一个漫长的国家，全国各地的天气模式变化很大。WFP是一种免税支付给居住在英国的60岁或以上的个人，以帮助他们在冬季的取暖费用。老年人成为目标，因为他们在冬季特别容易受到寒冷天气的影响，而且更有可能靠固定收入生活。英国有1200多万人（其中110万人在苏格兰）支付了基本的冬季燃料费。去年总成本超过27亿英镑。世界粮食计划署的费用约占退休家庭平均年度燃料费用总额的10%。世界粮食计划署的历史提供了许多机会来调查世界粮食计划署在多大程度上对死亡率的季节和天气模式产生了因果影响。

项目成果

Heterogeneous effects of missing out on a place at a preferred secondary school in England

错过英格兰首选中学的异质效应

• DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2021.102082
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Economics of Education Review
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Gorman E

The Role of Faith and Faith Schooling in Educational, Economic, and Faith Outcomes

信仰和信仰学校教育在教育、经济和信仰成果中的作用

• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Mckendrick A

Adolescent School Bullying Victimisation and Later Life Outcomes

青少年校园欺凌受害和以后的生活结果

• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
• 影响因子: 2.5
• 作者: Gorman, E

Keeping Faith; the the Short and Long Term Impacts of Faith and Faith Schools

坚守信念；

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: McKendrick, A.