Modelling developmental trajectories of novice drivers with high and low crash liability

道路交通事故是对公众健康的最大威胁之一，特别是对年轻人来说，给社会造成了巨大的社会和经济代价。在伤亡统计中，新手司机的比例过高，在他们驾驶生涯的前六个月，风险尤其高。有证据表明，驾驶技能的缺陷和决定采用危险的驾驶方式(例如，在危险地方超速和超车)都是新手易受攻击的原因。所有司机的平均撞车率在接下来的18-24个月内迅速下降，但在司机达到大约30岁之前不会停滞。虽然新手司机的道路交通伤害发生率有很好的记录，但对于为什么碰撞风险在驾驶的前三个月特别高，然后随着时间的推移稳步下降，人们仍然知之甚少。我们认为，不同类型的新手司机会遵循不同的碰撞风险和行为发展轨迹，而不是所有的司机都遵循相同的发展路线。例如，我们对拟议数据集的初步分析表明，在通过驾驶考试时，涉及撞车的风险态度不同。在危险态度量表中得分前三分之一的参与者显示，最初参与撞车的比例很高，但在前6个月后急剧下降。态度风险较低的参与者最初发生撞车的风险较低，他们的风险没有显示出类似的下降模式。我们可用的资源意味着我们的初步分析只能使用基本的技术。整个项目将采用先进的统计建模技术，根据不同的事故涉及和司机行为的发展轨迹来确定新手司机的分组。然后，我们将探索驾驶行为和学习驾驶经验等可修改的风险因素在多大程度上可以预测轨迹。这些结果将指导关于初学者和新手司机的教育、评估和管理(例如，分级执照)的政策，以鼓励司机走较低风险的轨道，而不是较高的风险。

Road traffic crashes are one of the greatest threats to public health, particularly for young people, with a substantial social and economic cost to society. Novice drivers are overrepresented in casualty statistics, with risk being particularly high in the first six months of their driving careers. There is evidence that both deficiencies in driving skills and decisions to adopt risky driving styles (e.g., speeding and overtaking in dangerous places) contribute to novice vulnerability. Averaged over all drivers, the rate of collisions declines rapidly over the subsequent 18-24 months but does not plateau until drivers reach approximately 30 years of age. While the prevalence of road traffic injuries for novice drivers is well documented, there is still relatively little understanding of why crash liability is particularly high in the first three months of driving before decreasing steadily over time. Rather than all drivers following the same developmental pathways, we believe different types of novice driver will follow different trajectories of crash risk and behavioural development. For example, our preliminary analyses of the proposed dataset indicate that crash involvement differs on the basis of risky attitudes at the time of passing the driving test. Participants scoring in the top third of a risky attitudes scale showed an initially high rate of crash involvement that declined steeply after the first 6 months. The participants with less risky attitudes were at lower initial risk of crash and their risk did not show a similar pattern of decline. Our available resources meant our preliminary analysis could only use basic techniques. The full project will employ advanced statistical modelling techniques to identify sub-groups of novice drivers following different developmental trajectories of crash involvement and driver behaviour. We will then explore the extent to which trajectory is predicted by modifiable risk factors such as driving behaviour and experiences in learning to drive. These results will guide policy on education, assessment and management (e.g., graduated licensing) of learner and novice drivers to encourage drivers onto the lower risk trajectories rather than the higher risk.