Modelling developmental trajectories of novice drivers with high and low crash liability

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Road traffic crashes are one of the greatest threats to public health, particularly for young people, with a substantial social and economic cost to society. Novice drivers are overrepresented in casualty statistics, with risk being particularly high in the first six months of their driving careers. There is evidence that both deficiencies in driving skills and decisions to adopt risky driving styles (e.g., speeding and overtaking in dangerous places) contribute to novice vulnerability. Averaged over all drivers, the rate of collisions declines rapidly over the subsequent 18-24 months but does not plateau until drivers reach approximately 30 years of age. While the prevalence of road traffic injuries for novice drivers is well documented, there is still relatively little understanding of why crash liability is particularly high in the first three months of driving before decreasing steadily over time. Rather than all drivers following the same developmental pathways, we believe different types of novice driver will follow different trajectories of crash risk and behavioural development. For example, our preliminary analyses of the proposed dataset indicate that crash involvement differs on the basis of risky attitudes at the time of passing the driving test. Participants scoring in the top third of a risky attitudes scale showed an initially high rate of crash involvement that declined steeply after the first 6 months. The participants with less risky attitudes were at lower initial risk of crash and their risk did not show a similar pattern of decline. Our available resources meant our preliminary analysis could only use basic techniques. The full project will employ advanced statistical modelling techniques to identify sub-groups of novice drivers following different developmental trajectories of crash involvement and driver behaviour. We will then explore the extent to which trajectory is predicted by modifiable risk factors such as driving behaviour and experiences in learning to drive. These results will guide policy on education, assessment and management (e.g., graduated licensing) of learner and novice drivers to encourage drivers onto the lower risk trajectories rather than the higher risk.