Voters in Context: The British Election Study 2015

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In 2015 the British electorate will go to the polls amidst pronounced socio-economic and political changes. The election will follow a decline in political engagement, trust in institutions and politicians, and support for mainstream political parties. It will be fought in a context of the historic coalition government, new constituency boundaries, a reduced number of MPs, and a referendum on independence for Scotland. It will also follow a period of recession, rising social inequalities and difficult political choices as the government attempts to implement both austerity and growth. The 2015 British Election Study will need to address concerns about representation and accountability, growing disengagement with mainstream political choices, and the impact of economic hardships and austerity upon political attitudes and participation. Our proposed study, themed 'Voters in Context', is designed to aid understanding of how the changing political, economic and social context impact on British electoral behaviour. The study design will allow users to analyse the influence of the geographical diversity in social, political and economic context through a spatially dispersed survey sample. Comparing voter responses across successive election studies provides important evidence about the role of historical party political and institutional context. This will be made possible by maximising the extent of comparability with past studies. The study will also allow scholars to understand the role of national institutional context by ensuring comparability between Britain and other countries (through delivery of the CSES module). The inter-election panel will provide a platform for robust causal analysis, individual-level over-time change, the experimental study of question wording effects, and experiments designed by and for the wider academic community. Users will be able to analyse the vote in the context of the daily short campaign, using innovative data collection from twitter alongside a daily voter survey. This joint proposal from the Universities of Manchester, Oxford and Nottingham is designed to address these issues by provision of four main components: first a high quality address-based random probability sample survey conducted via face-to-face interviews for maximum representativeness, geographic variation and macro over-time (long-run) comparability. Second an inter-election internet panel across four annual waves, including pre- and post-general election waves, to allow analysis of individual level change, robust causal analysis, and to facilitate understanding of inter-election political events and elections (local, European, devolved, mayoral). Third, a daily rolling thunder campaign study of voters, to allow analysis of shorter term campaign effects, alongside innovative daily twitter harvesting, to provide important contextual information on the campaign. Fourth, a 'Comparative Study of Electoral Systems' (CSES) module in the post-election random probability survey to enable all-important international comparison. The study will maximise value for money through a program of data linkage and harmonisation with related "satellite" studies and data collected for administrative purposes, developing an integrated data infrastructure for the study of elections in Britain. We will maximise the public relevance, usage, accessibility, operational efficiency, and academic impact of the BES, ensuring that the study provides the best value for money (enhanced by substantial institutional contributions) and that it reaches the broadest possible community of scholars and other users. We are partnering with national organisations in their analysis of representation, engagement, and voter registration. We will also provide for the development of the BES as a vehicle for improving the understanding and usage of quantitative methods in social science in general and political science in particular.