The e-Resilience of British Retail Centres

尽管在波塔斯审查(波塔斯2011)之后采取了行动，但很明显，英国零售业仍处于危机之中。这一点最明显地体现在零售场所的空前空置率上，至少在1930年代以来最长的经济衰退开始后出现了这种情况。在英国，空置率估计为14.2%(LDC，2013)，尽管这一全国数字掩盖了非常大的地区差异。例如，在英格兰的政府办公区之间，空置率从7.5%(伦敦)到17.5%(西北部)不等；一些市中心的空置率高达34%(Morecambe West End：LDC，2013)。越来越多的证据表明，当地经济状况对传统零售业的影响正在因不同形式的电子商务的出现和整合而加剧--据估计，不同形式的电子商务占英国2003至2010年间零售增长的近一半(标枪集团，2011)--以及移动商务(使用移动技术)的出现。这项提议建立在2005年作为ESRC电子社会计划的一部分而完成的成功研究的基础上。然而，自这项工作完成以来，互联网的使用率已从60%增长到73%，更重要的是，接入宽带的用户比例从31%增加到71%(ONS 2010)，这对采用新的和日益丰富的媒体用户体验产生了影响。在同一时期，无线宽带(3G或WiFi)的可用性增加，其成本下降，而新一代移动手机(通常具有地理定位功能)已被广泛采用(Haklay等人，2008年)。该项目涉及与本地数据公司(LDC)的创新合作，LDC收集了大量关于英国零售业的构成和健康状况的独特数据。该项目涉及与零售集水区有关的“电子复原力”的衡量。我们根据零售中心在多大程度上接触到大量使用信息和通信技术的消费者，以及由此带来的虚拟零售渠道，来定义零售电子弹性。因此，这项研究有三个主要方面：(A)创建英国零售中心的传统集水区；(B)在小区域一级衡量信息和通信技术的参与度，并为传统集水区制定综合的“电子复原力”措施；(C)对零售中心集水区及其电子复原力进行敏感性分析。这一项目的产出将包括一系列派生数据集，这些数据集可用于确定零售方案范围内已获资金资助的KEO和KTP项目组合，其中包括：关于LSOA一级电子复原力的全国分类；利用现有关于零售结构和空置单位的最佳现有数据建立的全国零售中心传统集水区数据库；以及考虑到电子复原力及当前结构和空置率的全国零售中心集水区数据库。

Despite actions following the Portas Review (Portas 2011), it is clear that UK retailing remains in crisis. This is most obviously manifest in the unprecedented vacancy rates of retail premises that have arisen following the onset of the longest economic downturn since the 1930s (at least). Within Great Britain, estimates of vacancy rates stand at 14.2% (LDC, 2013), although this national figure masks very considerable local variation. For example, between the Government Office Regions of England, rates vary from a low of 7.5% (London) through to 17.5% (North West); with some town centre vacancy rates as high as 34% (Morecambe West End: LDC, 2013). There is increasing evidence that the effects of local economic conditions upon conventional retailing are being compounded by the emergence and consolidation of different forms of e-commerce - which is estimated to have accounted for nearly half of all retail sales growth in the UK between 2003 and 2010 (Javelin Group, 2011) - and the emergence of m-commerce (using mobile technologies).This proposal builds upon successful research that was concluded as part of the ESRC e-Society Programme in 2005, however, since this work was completed, the use of the Internet has grown from 60% to 73%, and more significantly, the percentage of users with access to broadband has increased from 31% to 71% (ONS 2010) - with consequences for adoption of new and increasingly media rich user experiences. Over the same period the availability of wireless broadband (3G or WiFi) has increased and its costs have fallen, while new generation mobile handsets (often with geolocation functionality) have been widely adopted (Haklay et al 2008). The project involves an innovative collaboration with the Local Data Company (LDC) who collect numerous unique data on the composition and health of British retailing. The project concerns the measurement of "e-Resilience" in relation to retail catchment areas. We define retail e-Resilience in terms of the extent to which retail centres are exposed to consumers who are heavily engaged with information and communication technologies, and the virtual retail channels that these enable. As such, there are three main strands to this research: (a) to create conventional catchment areas of British retail centres; (b) to measure engagement with information and communication technologies at a small area level and create a summary "e-Resilience" measure for the conventional catchments; (c) to conduct sensitivity analysis on retail centre catchments and their e-Resilience. Outputs from the project will include a series of derived datasets, that can be used to give shape to the funded portfolio of KEO and KTP projects within the Retail Programme including: A nationwide classification of e-Resilience at the LSOA level; a nationwide database of conventional catchments for retail centres, built using the best available data on retail structure and vacant units; and, a nationwide database of retail centre catchments that takes into account e-Resilience and current structure and vacancy rates.