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Business decision-making in conditions of constitutional and political uncertainty in the UK and Scotland: An inductive study and scenario analysis

英国和苏格兰宪法和政治不确定性条件下的商业决策：归纳研究和情景分析

基本信息

批准号：
ES/L005301/1
负责人：
Robert MacKay
金额：
$ 21.37万
依托单位：
University of Edinburgh
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Fellowship
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2013 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FL005301%2F1
关键词：
Business decision making conditions constitutional

项目摘要

This project involves undertaking up to 60 interviews with senior business leaders in medium and large companies from across a range of strategically important sectors and industries operating in Scotland. The aim of the project is to explore business decision-making in conditions of constitutional and political uncertainty in Scotland and the United Kingdom, and to develop a number of alternative scenarios around the different possible outcomes from the Scottish independence vote. For instance, Scottish vote for independence suggests uncertainties around changes in fiscal and monetary policies, regulation of industries, what currency might be adopted, participation in international economic and political agreements and so on. Equally, a vote for the union could also bring with it other uncertainties including the UK's future participation in the European Union, or chronic uncertainty brought about by the prospect of future votes on Scottish independence. Such uncertainties have implications for businesses operating in Scotland, including whether to invest and expand capacity, withdraw from the market, locate operations elsewhere in the UK, Europe or the world, amongst others. Such implications may also vary depending on individual businesses, or between sectors and industries. At present, however, there is a paucity of research indicating how uncertainties are impacting, or are likely to impact on business activity. This proposal, therefore, addresses a pressing need to conduct independent, objective and systematic research into what key uncertainties are of most concern to business leaders and how they are affecting business decisions, the decisions that business leaders are likely to take under different independence vote outcomes, and flowing from this, alternative scenarios that might unfold as a result of the referendum. This research agenda is aimed at generating evidence that helps business decision-makers, policymaking officials and the public to assess and predict the implications of a Scottish independence referendum for business decision-making. By identifying the key types of uncertainty that are of concern to business leaders, developing a decision-making typology of the possible decisions that business leaders might take against the backdrop of constitutional and political uncertainty in the UK and Scotland, and developing alterative scenarios around possible independence vote outcomes, this research proposal also seeks to provide business decision-makers, policymaking officials and the public with decision-making tools that can improve and support decision-making in such circumstances. Such conceptual tools will also be useful for informing the wider public debate on the implications of a Scottish independence vote for business decision-making by bringing research evidence to, in the case of the implications of business decision-making, what has thus far been largely conjecture. The research methods that this project applies are inductive, semi-structured, qualitative interviews designed to surface those uncertainties that are of most concern to business leaders and the extent to which uncertainties are likely to impact on business decision-making. The development of a decision-making typology of decisions against a backdrop of possible independence vote outcome, and the development of alternative scenarios will help to bring evidence to the wider public debate on the future of the UK and Scotland, and they will also be useful for improving and supporting the decision-making by business leaders and policymakers by helping to clarify and surface assumptions about what the independence vote means for business, policy and the public, and its impact on behaviour. The findings from this research will be disseminated through a combination of a mid-Fellowship briefing, executive style report, web-site, social media, short video, press releases, ESRC engagement, media interviews, and industry presentations.

该项目涉及对苏格兰运营的一系列具有重要战略意义的部门和行业的大中型公司的高级商业领袖进行多达 60 次采访。该项目的目的是探索苏格兰和英国宪法和政治不确定性条件下的商业决策，并围绕苏格兰独立公投可能出现的不同结果制定多种替代方案。例如，苏格兰独立公投表明财政和货币政策变化、行业监管、可能采用何种货币、参与国际经济和政治协议等方面存在不确定性。同样，对欧盟的投票也可能带来其他不确定性，包括英国未来加入欧盟的情况，或未来苏格兰独立投票前景带来的长期不确定性。这种不确定性对在苏格兰经营的企业产生影响，包括是否投资和扩大产能、退出市场、将业务转移到英国、欧洲或世界其他地方等。这种影响也可能因个体企业或部门和行业的不同而有所不同。然而，目前很少有研究表明不确定性如何影响或可能影响商业活动。因此，该提案解决了迫切需要进行独立、客观和系统的研究，了解哪些关键不确定性是企业领导人最关心的，以及它们如何影响企业决策，企业领导人在不同的独立投票结果下可能做出的决策，以及由此产生的公投结果可能出现的替代方案。该研究议程旨在生成证据，帮助商业决策者、政策制定官员和公众评估和预测苏格兰独立公投对商业决策的影响。通过确定企业领导人关心的关键不确定性类型，制定企业领导人在英国和苏格兰宪法和政治不确定性背景下可能采取的决策的决策类型，并围绕可能的独立投票结果制定替代方案，本研究提案还旨在为企业决策者、政策制定官员和公众提供决策工具，以改进和支持此类情况下的决策。这些概念工具还将有助于为更广泛的公众辩论提供信息，以了解苏格兰独立公投对商业决策的影响，就商业决策的影响而言，通过提供研究证据，到目前为止，这在很大程度上只是猜测。该项目采用的研究方法是归纳式、半结构化、定性访谈，旨在揭示企业领导者最关心的不确定性以及不确定性可能影响业务决策的程度。在可能的独立投票结果的背景下制定决策类型，以及替代方案的制定，将有助于为有关英国和苏格兰未来的更广泛的公众辩论提供证据，并且通过帮助澄清和浮现关于独立投票对企业、政策和公众意味着什么及其对行为的影响的假设，也将有助于改善和支持商界领袖和政策制定者的决策。这项研究的结果将通过奖学金中期简报、高管风格报告、网站、社交媒体、短视频、新闻稿、ESRC 参与、媒体采访和行业演示等方式进行传播。