Business decision-making in conditions of constitutional and political uncertainty in the UK and Scotland: An inductive study and scenario analysis

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This project involves undertaking up to 60 interviews with senior business leaders in medium and large companies from across a range of strategically important sectors and industries operating in Scotland. The aim of the project is to explore business decision-making in conditions of constitutional and political uncertainty in Scotland and the United Kingdom, and to develop a number of alternative scenarios around the different possible outcomes from the Scottish independence vote. For instance, Scottish vote for independence suggests uncertainties around changes in fiscal and monetary policies, regulation of industries, what currency might be adopted, participation in international economic and political agreements and so on. Equally, a vote for the union could also bring with it other uncertainties including the UK's future participation in the European Union, or chronic uncertainty brought about by the prospect of future votes on Scottish independence. Such uncertainties have implications for businesses operating in Scotland, including whether to invest and expand capacity, withdraw from the market, locate operations elsewhere in the UK, Europe or the world, amongst others. Such implications may also vary depending on individual businesses, or between sectors and industries. At present, however, there is a paucity of research indicating how uncertainties are impacting, or are likely to impact on business activity. This proposal, therefore, addresses a pressing need to conduct independent, objective and systematic research into what key uncertainties are of most concern to business leaders and how they are affecting business decisions, the decisions that business leaders are likely to take under different independence vote outcomes, and flowing from this, alternative scenarios that might unfold as a result of the referendum. This research agenda is aimed at generating evidence that helps business decision-makers, policymaking officials and the public to assess and predict the implications of a Scottish independence referendum for business decision-making. By identifying the key types of uncertainty that are of concern to business leaders, developing a decision-making typology of the possible decisions that business leaders might take against the backdrop of constitutional and political uncertainty in the UK and Scotland, and developing alterative scenarios around possible independence vote outcomes, this research proposal also seeks to provide business decision-makers, policymaking officials and the public with decision-making tools that can improve and support decision-making in such circumstances. Such conceptual tools will also be useful for informing the wider public debate on the implications of a Scottish independence vote for business decision-making by bringing research evidence to, in the case of the implications of business decision-making, what has thus far been largely conjecture. The research methods that this project applies are inductive, semi-structured, qualitative interviews designed to surface those uncertainties that are of most concern to business leaders and the extent to which uncertainties are likely to impact on business decision-making. The development of a decision-making typology of decisions against a backdrop of possible independence vote outcome, and the development of alternative scenarios will help to bring evidence to the wider public debate on the future of the UK and Scotland, and they will also be useful for improving and supporting the decision-making by business leaders and policymakers by helping to clarify and surface assumptions about what the independence vote means for business, policy and the public, and its impact on behaviour. The findings from this research will be disseminated through a combination of a mid-Fellowship briefing, executive style report, web-site, social media, short video, press releases, ESRC engagement, media interviews, and industry presentations.