Female labour supply and the escape from poverty: new evidence from household data

这项研究将利用来自4个非洲和亚洲国家（孟加拉国、埃塞俄比亚、巴基斯坦和卢旺达）的住户调查数据，在可比基础上深入审查过去20至30年来低收入国家女性劳动力供应的演变性质，并分析这与减贫的关系。我们主要讨论征求建议书中的研究问题1，即使家庭摆脱或不陷入贫困的因素，尽管体制因素（问题2）在这一分析中也发挥着重要作用，国家的选择和方法的相似性使非洲和南亚内部和之间具有可比性。妇女的作用，包括与工作有关的作用，往往因国家而异;各国在减贫方面的成功程度也各不相同。分析利用了重复的跨部门住户调查、人口健康调查数据和住户面板数据集，我们研究问题的基础是一个普遍接受的事实，即安全的生产性劳动力市场活动是使家庭摆脱和远离贫困的关键。我们认为，贫困家庭妇女的劳动力市场活动可能在这方面发挥关键作用，无论是作为次要家务劳动者还是作为户主。从历史上看，妇女从事工作或生产力更高的工作的能力较低，这是家庭资源的损失。这种情况在世界各地正在发生变化;女孩现在受到更高水平的教育，限制女性劳动力市场活动的规范现在不那么强了。一个始于现在先进国家的过程也在较贫穷国家发生。这既影响到妇女能够工作的程度，也影响到她们能够从事的活动类型。尽管如此，贫穷国家的情况仍然是，许多女性工作，特别是在较贫穷的家庭中，发挥着缓冲作用，在面临冲击时寻求支持家庭。随着时间的推移，这种情况可能会发生变化。这里的重点是劳动力供应的不同方面，以及它们在20-30年时间内的演变;我们将考虑参与、工作时间、工作性质（工资或自营职业，家庭内部或外部，部门，职业等），以及采取提高生产力的措施。我们将根据许多标准（地理、社会经济地位、家庭规模和组成等）按家庭类型进行分类。我们将利用调查数据，采用群组方法，详细审查所有国家都出现的增加或变化的女性劳动力供应与减贫之间的联系，同时控制许多其他相关因素，我们特别感兴趣的是审查女性工作从缓冲角色向长期创收角色的转变。这一点在描述性分析中部分显而易见;但我们也将通过估计短期和长期女性劳动力供给收入弹性并研究它们在每个国家如何随时间变化来更深入地分析这一点。这可以揭示促进这种过渡的体制和政策因素，与这种过渡可能有关的是，我们研究的所有国家都在实施社会保障干预措施，其中三个国家采取工作福利的形式。虽然这些方案促进了女性劳动力的缓冲作用，但它们也可能帮助妇女获得长期工作。我们将在自2008年以来一直在卢旺达运作的2020年愿景Umurenge计划（VUP）的背景下对此进行调查。我们非常强大的当地合作伙伴团队将与苏塞克斯大学的研究人员密切合作，在这个项目中发挥主导作用。在所有四个国家和国际上，对这些问题都有强烈的政策兴趣;在所有国家，我们将从一开始就与主要利益攸关方一起参与和合作。

This study will utilize household survey data from 4 African and Asian countries (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Rwanda) to examine in depth and on a comparable basis the evolving nature of female labour supply in low income countries over the past 2-3 decades, and to analyse how this has been associated with poverty reduction. We address primarily research question 1 from the call for proposals, the factors enabling households to escape from or stay out of poverty, although institutional factors (question 2) also play an important role in this analysis.The choice of countries and similarity of approach enables comparability within and between Africa and South Asia. The roles of women, including in relation to work, are often quite different between countries; and the countries have varying degrees of success in poverty reduction. The analysis draws on repeated cross section household surveys, Demographic Health Survey (DHS) data and household panel data sets.Underlying our research questions is the widely accepted fact that secure productive labour market activities are key to enable a household to escape from and stay out of poverty. We suggest that the labour market activities of women in poor households may play a key role here, whether as secondary household workers or heads in their own right. Historically females have been less able to engage in work or in more productive forms of work, representing a lost resource for the household. This situation is changing across the world; girls are now educated to higher levels, and norms which constrained female labour market activities are now less strong. A process which started in now-advanced countries is also happening in poorer countries. This affects both the extent to which women are able to work and the type of activities they can undertake. That said, it remains the case in poor countries that much female work, especially in poorer households, plays a buffering role, seeking to support the household in the face of shocks. Over time this is likely to change.The focus here is on different aspects of labour supply and how their evolution over a 20-30 year time period; we will consider participation, hours, nature of work (wage or self-employment, within or outside the household, sector, occupation etc.), and adoption of productivity enhancing measures. We will disaggregate by household type according to many criteria (geographic, socioeconomic status, household size and composition etc.). We will use the survey data to examine in detail, using a cohort approach, the associations between increased or changing female labour supply and poverty reduction, which has taken place in all countries, controlling for many other correlates.We are particularly interested in examining the transition of female work from a buffering role to a longer term income generating role. This will partly be apparent from the descriptive analysis; but we will also consider this more analytically by estimating short and long run female labour supply income elasticities and examining how they have changed over time in each country. This can shed light on the institutional and policy factors that facilitate the transition.Potentially relevant to this transition is that all our study countries are implementing social protection interventions, which in three of the study countries takes the form of workfare. Although such programmes facilitate the buffering role of female labour, they may also help women acquire longer term jobs. We will investigate this in the context of the Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme (VUP) which has been operational in Rwanda since 2008.Our very strong team of local partners will play a leading role in this project, in close partnership with Sussex researchers. And there is strong policy interest in these questions in all four countries and internationally; in all countries we will involve and work alongside key stakeholder from the beginning.