The development of episodic future thinking and future-oriented decision making

情景未来思维和面向未来的决策的发展

• 批准号: ES/N01281X/1
• 负责人: Teresa McCormack
• 金额: $ 35.46万
• 依托单位: Queen's University Belfast
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FN01281X%2F1
• 关键词: development; episodic; future; thinking; oriented

We are often faced with a choice between doing something that has an immediate reward (e.g., spending money on a treat) and doing something that has no immediate benefit but is in the longer-term more advantageous (e.g., saving to buy a house). Choosing the smaller immediate reward over the larger, future reward has been described as "discounting" the larger future reward (i.e., the value of the delayed reward is seen as lower because of how far away in time it is). Such discounting has been extensively studied by psychologists, not least because the choices people make in experiments are predictive of various sorts of potentially harmful real-world behavior (e.g., overeating, gambling, substance abuse). Psychologists are particularly interested in finding out which psychological processes may reduce discounting because this can help them develop appropriate interventions. It has been claimed that a particular sort of thought about the future plays a special role in supporting prudent decision making: what is termed episodic future thinking (EFT). EFT involves imagining in one's mind's eye specific events in one's own future, i.e., mentally "pre-experiencing" events before they happen. Indeed, studies with adults have suggested that encouraging people to think episodically about the future can help reduce discounting, with these findings beginning to form the basis of some novel interventions. Young children have difficulty making prudent choices. The tendency to discount future rewards decreases gradually across childhood and also changes over adolescence, with 16-year-olds being more likely to make prudent choices than 14-year-olds. However, as yet, we do not fully understand the developmental changes that lie behind these important improvements in future-oriented decision making. EFT skills first emerge around 4 to 5 years, and, like future-oriented decision making, EFT continues to improve into adolescence. However, nothing is currently known about how the development of EFT and the development of decision making are linked. This project will examine this issue for the first time in a series of experiments that explore whether children's and adolescents' EFT abilities are linked to their tendency to discount future rewards. We will also test whether encouraging children and adolescents to think episodically about the future enhances their decision making, by contrasting the effects of EFT versus other sorts of thinking on discounting behavior. Finally, the project will examine a further untested hypothesis regarding developmental changes in future-oriented decision making: that younger children are more likely to discount future rewards because times in the future feel farther away to them than to older children. Existing research suggests that adults may differ in their tendency to discount future rewards in part because of differences in how far away the distant future feels to them. However, we do not know if this can explain age differences. We will thus examine whether any developmental differences in how far away the future feels are linked to EFT skills and, more specifically, the idea that difficulties younger children have in imagining events in their futures means that future rewards seem very distant in time. This project will not only shed light on important developmental changes in decision making, it will also help psychologists understand the processes underlying prudent choice and the function of EFT. Such understanding is crucial for developing interventions to enhance future-oriented decision making in children, adolescents, and adults.

我们经常面临一个选择：要么做一些有立竿见影的回报的事情（例如，花钱请客），要么做一些没有立竿见影的好处但从长远来看更有利的事情（例如，存钱买房子）。选择较小的即时奖励而不是较大的未来奖励被描述为“折扣”较大的未来奖励（即，延迟奖励的价值被视为较低，因为它距离时间有多远）。心理学家对这种折扣进行了广泛的研究，尤其是因为人们在实验中做出的选择可以预测现实世界中各种潜在有害的行为（例如暴饮暴食、赌博、药物滥用）。心理学家特别感兴趣的是找出哪些心理过程可以减少折扣，因为这可以帮助他们制定适当的干预措施。有人声称，一种关于未来的特殊想法在支持审慎决策方面发挥着特殊作用：即所谓的情景未来思维（EFT）。 EFT 涉及在脑海中想象自己未来的特定事件，即在事件发生之前在心理上“预先经历”事件。事实上，针对成年人的研究表明，鼓励人们偶尔思考未来有助于减少折扣，这些发现开始成为一些新颖干预措施的基础。年幼的孩子很难做出谨慎的选择。在整个童年时期，对未来奖励打折的倾向逐渐减弱，并且在青春期也发生变化，16 岁的人比 14 岁的人更有可能做出谨慎的选择。然而，到目前为止，我们还没有完全理解这些面向未来的决策的重要改进背后的发展变化。 EFT 技能首先在 4 到 5 岁左右出现，并且与面向未来的决策一样，EFT 会在青春期继续提高。然而，目前对于 EFT 的发展和决策的发展如何联系起来一无所知。该项目将在一系列实验中首次研究这个问题，探索儿童和青少年的 EFT 能力是否与他们对未来奖励打折扣的倾向有关。我们还将通过对比电子转帐与其他思维方式对贴现行为的影响，测试鼓励儿童和青少年对未来进行情景性思考是否可以增强他们的决策能力。最后，该项目将进一步检验一个未经检验的关于面向未来决策的发展变化的假设：年幼的孩子更有可能对未来的奖励打折扣，因为与年长的孩子相比，未来的时光对他们来说更遥远。现有研究表明，成年人对未来奖励打折的倾向可能有所不同，部分原因是他们对遥远未来的感觉存在差异。然而，我们不知道这是否可以解释年龄差异。因此，我们将研究未来感觉有多远的任何发展差异是否与 EFT 技能有关，更具体地说，年幼的孩子在想象未来事件时遇到困难意味着未来的奖励在时间上似乎非常遥远。该项目不仅将揭示决策过程中重要的发展变化，还将帮助心理学家了解审慎选择背后的过程和 EFT 的功能。这种理解对于制定干预措施以增强儿童、青少年和成人面向未来的决策至关重要。

项目成果

The Effect of Episodic Future Thinking on Young Children's Future-Oriented Decision Making

• DOI: 10.1037/dev0001179
• 发表时间: 2021-06-01
• 期刊: DEVELOPMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: Burns, Patrick;McCormack, Teresa;Atance, Cristina
• 通讯作者: Atance, Cristina

The Development of Temporal Concepts: Learning to Locate Events in Time

时间概念的发展：学习及时定位事件

• DOI: 10.1163/22134468-00002094
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Timing & Time Perception
• 影响因子: 1.4
• 作者: McCormack T

Saving for the future: episodic future thinking and delay of gratification in children

为未来储蓄：情景式未来思考和儿童延迟满足

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: McCormack T

The effects of cueing episodic future thinking on delay discounting in children, adolescents, and adults.

提示情景未来思维对儿童、青少年和成人延迟贴现的影响。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104934
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Cognition
• 影响因子: 3.4
• 作者: Burns P

Subjective time perception and episodic future thinking in children's delay of gratification

儿童延迟满足的主观时间感知和情景未来思维

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Burns P