Inequality and the insurance value of transfers across the life cycle

整个生命周期转移的不平等和保险价值

• 批准号: ES/P001831/1
• 负责人: Eric French
• 金额: $ 86.21万
• 依托单位: Institute for Fiscal Studies
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FP001831%2F1
• 关键词: Inequality; insurance; value; transfers; across

Context and motivationThe provision of 'social insurance' (the benefits governments pay to those who are ill, unemployed, disabled, poor or old), accounts for more government expenditure than any other category of public spending. This social insurance is potentially valuable to all households, not just those receiving those benefits at a given point in time. It ensures that, should households find themselves in difficult circumstances, they will be shielded from extremely low living standards. However, the provision of social insurance also brings costs. These costs are both direct (e.g. the financial cost of the transfers) and indirect (e.g. the provision of benefits reduces the incentives to work and save). Balancing these costs and benefits is a challenge for policy-makers.As governments seek to manage the rising costs of providing social insurance and achieve their redistributive objectives in the context of rising inequality, robust evidence is needed on the effects of taxes and transfers on the behaviour and well-being of households.Aims and methodologyOur proposed research will develop and test models of household savings and labour supply to evaluate how reforms to social insurance schemes would impact household behaviour, household well-being, inequality and the public finances.A central challenge is to develop and apply a methodology that can robustly estimate the extent that household behaviour changes when policies change - including both past and potential future reforms. To do this we will develop 'lifecycle' models which link household decisions (such as saving, labour supply, participation in social insurance programs, and intergenerational transfers) in each period with their well-being in that period and their consequent opportunities (and well-being) in future periods. Our models will innovate substantially over those found in existing work, both in terms of their scale and the range of policies whose impact they will be used to quantify. Importantly, this will allow us to study complementary policies in a coherent framework, rather than in isolation. For example, we will examine how public pensions and private pension subsidies interact, and in considering reforms to retirement provision, we will jointly consider the public and private pension systems (rather than separately, as has been the case in previous work). This state-of-the-art methodology brings with it substantial data requirements and large computational burdens, which we will overcome by building on previous ESRC investments at the Institute for Fiscal Studies. We will use new and little-exploited linked survey and administrative data as well as frontier computational methods and computer investments to estimate these models.Applications, benefits and impactOur ultimate aim is to allow policy-makers and the broader user community to better understand how household behaviour responds to government policy on social insurance. The questions that we will answer include:- How should the generosity and the structure of the state pension system respond to demographic pressures? - What are the effects of provision of disability benefits on labour supply and on the health outcomes of those who receive them? - Why do retired households maintain their wealth into their oldest years rather than spend it? How would changes to inheritance taxation change this?- To what extent are inheritances (and the prospect of future receipt of inheritances) affecting household saving behaviour and inequality? We will maximise our impact by producing a range of outputs that will communicate the results to diverse audiences. In addition to a series of academic articles that will be submitted to top economic journals, we will produce a number of non-technical reports, accompanied by press releases, that summarise the key findings directed at non-academic audiences (journalists, policy-makers and other non-academic users).

背景和动机提供“社会保险”（政府向生病、失业、残疾、贫穷或年老的人支付的福利）比任何其他类别的公共支出都要多。这种社会保险对所有家庭都有潜在的价值，而不仅仅是那些在特定时间点领取这些福利的家庭。它确保，如果家庭发现自己处于困难的情况下，他们将不会受到极低生活水平的影响。然而，提供社会保险也带来了成本。这些成本既有直接的（如转移支付的财务成本），也有间接的（如提供福利减少了工作和储蓄的积极性）。平衡这些成本和收益对政策制定者来说是一个挑战。随着政府寻求管理提供社会保险的成本上升并在不平等加剧的背景下实现再分配目标，需要强有力的证据来证明税收和转移支付对行为的影响，目标和方法我们提议的研究将开发和测试家庭储蓄和劳动力供应的模型，以评估改革如何社会保险计划将影响家庭行为、家庭福祉、不平等和公共财政。一个核心挑战是制定和应用一种方法，能够可靠地估计政策变化时家庭行为的变化程度-包括过去和未来可能的改革。为此，我们将开发“生命周期”模型，将每个时期的家庭决策（如储蓄，劳动力供应，参与社会保险计划和代际转移）与该时期的福祉以及未来时期的机会（和福祉）联系起来。我们的模型将在现有工作中发现的模型上进行重大创新，无论是在规模上还是在政策范围上，都将被用来量化政策的影响。重要的是，这将使我们能够在一个连贯的框架内而不是孤立地研究互补政策。例如，我们将研究公共养老金和私人养老金补贴如何相互作用，在考虑退休制度改革时，我们将共同考虑公共和私人养老金制度（而不是像以前的工作那样单独考虑）。这种最先进的方法带来了大量的数据需求和巨大的计算负担，我们将通过建立在财政研究所以前的ESRC投资来克服这一点。我们将使用新的和很少利用的关联调查和行政数据以及前沿计算方法和计算机投资来估计这些models.Applications，benefits和impactOur的最终目的是让政策制定者和更广泛的用户社区更好地了解家庭行为如何响应政府的社会保险政策。我们将回答的问题包括：-国家养老金制度的慷慨和结构应该如何应对人口压力？- 提供残疾福利对劳动力供应和领取者的健康结果有何影响？- 为什么退休的家庭会把他们的财富保留到最老的时候，而不是花掉？遗产税的变化将如何改变这一点？遗产（以及将来获得遗产的前景）在多大程度上影响家庭储蓄行为和不平等？我们将通过制作一系列将结果传达给不同受众的输出来最大限度地发挥我们的影响力。除了将提交给顶级经济期刊的一系列学术文章外，我们还将制作一些非技术性报告，并附有新闻稿，总结针对非学术受众（记者，政策制定者和其他非学术用户）的主要研究结果。

项目成果

How should we fund end-of-life care in the US?

• DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2022.100359
• 发表时间: 2022-11
• 期刊: LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-AMERICAS
• 作者: Arapakis, Karolos;French, Eric;Jones, John;McCauley, Jeremy
• 通讯作者: McCauley, Jeremy

How Should We Fund End-of-Life Care in the USA?

我们应该如何为美国的临终关怀提供资金？

• DOI: 10.17863/cam.89413
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Arapakis K

The Impact of Health on Labor Supply near Retirement

• DOI: 10.3368/jhr.58.3.1217-9240r4
• 发表时间: 2023-01-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF HUMAN RESOURCES
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Blundell, Richard;Britton, Jack;French, Eric
• 通讯作者: French, Eric

Dementia and disadvantage in the USA and England: population-based comparative study.

• DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045186
• 发表时间: 2021-10-06
• 期刊: BMJ open
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Arapakis K;Brunner E;French E;McCauley J
• 通讯作者: McCauley J

INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND THE MINIMUM WAGE: A PUTTY-CLAY APPROACH

• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12262
• 发表时间: 2018-02-01
• 期刊: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• 影响因子: 1.5
• 作者: Aaronson, Daniel;French, Eric;To, Ted
• 通讯作者: To, Ted