Understanding the complex determinants of teacher shortages: an integrated approach

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Understanding the complex determinants of teacher supply is important for effective workforce planning. The current teacher supply 'crisis' is expected to get worse. Despite the body of work in this area the issue has never been investigated in an integrated way, as this project will. We need to know why: demand for teachers has increased, teacher supply is not sufficient to meet demand and the Teacher Supply Model has failed to predict accurately the number of teachers needed, so that targeted and appropriate initiatives can be used. Teacher shortages are at least partly created by government policies as much as by the mere increase in school intake population. Policy measures, such as raising the education and training leaving age to 18, introduction of the English Baccalaureate, changes in admissions criteria to initial teacher training, caps on intake targets for the different routes into teacher training, the level and method of funding to schools, and the increase in number and diversity of schools, can all influence teacher demand and supply. Modelling cannot anticipate such changes years ahead and these factors are rarely considered in accounts of teacher recruitment and retention. Reanalysis of secondary data suggests that the recent historical patterns of teacher numbers are not closely related to the economic and employment cycles. Therefore, current financial incentives to increase teacher supply are not likely to be effective by themselves. We need to look at alternative approaches to understand why some people are attracted to teaching, and more importantly why some people are not. Much of the evidence so far has focused on the motivations of people who are already in teaching, ignoring those who are not in teaching or who have left. Understanding the reasons for non-participation is important for policy, and this requires a consideration of the motivations and the subjective opportunistic structure of those who do not consider, or even rejected, teaching as a career. This new study will:1. Clarify the complex determinants of teacher demand and supply.2. Identify people's intention to go into teaching, those who might consider teaching and those who are on other paths. 3. Characterise these intending, potential and non- teachers.4. Understand all kinds of barriers to entering teaching.5. Review the impact of policy initiatives to increase teacher supply.6. Identify approaches that have the most promise of success.This new study will use a combination of approaches to look at the issue holistically. We will reanalyze teacher data using various official and other sources, such as the School Workforce Census, DfE, HESA, National College for Teaching and Leadership (NCTL), School Teachers' Review Body, Graduate Teacher Training Registry as well as government reports from 1990 to 2018. We will look at the patterns of teacher demand and supply over time to establish the determinants of teacher supply and demand, and to see how education policies may have an effect on teacher demand and supply. We will review international studies to evaluate the impact of recruitment and retention policies to identify promising ones, giving greater weight to studies with a causal or quasi-experimental design. We will conduct a survey of undergraduates to gather information about their career decisions, plans and motivations. The results will supplement conclusions drawn from the secondary data reanalysis, as well as provide further insights into the impact of policy initiatives. This study will have important implications for workforce planning in the civil service, and for human capital theory about the social determinants of people's choice of career. It will be of interest to non-academic users: teachers' unions, the NCTL and teacher training agency. Eight users,including the DfE and the Chartered College of Teaching, have confirmed support and expressed an urgency for an independent evaluation of the issue.