Rethinking Climate Change in the Cauvery Delta Through Long Term Historical Data

通过长期历史数据重新思考高韦里三角洲的气候变化

• 批准号: ES/T006196/1
• 负责人: Aditya Ramesh
• 金额: $ 11.93万
• 依托单位: University of Manchester
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FT006196%2F1
• 关键词: Rethinking; Climate; Change; Cauvery; Delta

According to the 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 230 million people in South Asia are at risk fromClimate Change, the largest of any single region. Recent studies of the Cauvery delta, and more generally climatechange in India, begin largely with World Bank and Indian Space Research Organization (satellite) data from the1970s, showing the ways in which the climate is acutely changing since then. However, these studies are based onthirty years of data. This project uses historical data to comprehend the scale of space specific climate change, thethreats posed, effectively predict long-term trends and prepare adaptation strategies. (Mahony and Endfield 2018;Amrith 2016). Using long term historical data allows researchers to a) eliminate cyclical patterns not as effects ofimmediate climate change b) identify long term patterns of change (whether this is a sudden increase, decrease orgradual) c) identify how older regimes adapted to change in temperature or disasters.The project will curate a detailed dataset collected from reports that were published by the colonial provincialgovernment and continued into the postcolonial era. The first is the Seasonal and Crop report of the Madras presidency(1905-1954). This report contains district wise monthly statistics and qualitative information on rainfall compared tothe average rainfall for the district, the prevalent temperature, level of silt deposits, the crops grown in differentseasons and any shortfall or excess of rain. Data prior to 1905 is not systematic, but data has been gathered throughthree sources including the Meteorological Observations Recorded at Six Stations in India (1879-1894);Meteorological Observations made at the East India Company's Observatory at Madras (1841-1890); Rainfall ofIndia (1891-1950) and Cyclone Memoirs (1888-1893). The dataset will comprise of a searchable year-wise monthlyindex of rainfall, temperature, silt deposit, crops grown, in a systematic manner from 1905-1950, and in a lesssystematic manner from 1860-1905.I will work with GIS technicians at the French Institute of Pondicherry (IFP) to transfer the data on to maps of twokinds. First, three historical maps (from 1888, 1917 and 1945, all georeferenced) created will include still images ofthese years and contain multiple variables (colour coded), to visualize change clearly. Variables will be added ascolour coded graphics which users can then use to simultaneously picture rainfall, temperature and vegetationchanging over a close to a hundred years. Second, certain maps will picture years of floods or drought (for instance1872 and 1924), to show how extreme weather events have occurred historically (Knowles and Hillier 2008). Thedataset will allow researchers to ask the following questionsWhat are the patterns in temperature and rainfall from 1860-1950? Is there evidence of increasing heatwaves andfloods up until 1950? Is there any evidence of cyclical weather patterns? At which time period (under what weatherconditions) was agriculture relatively stable? Which regions have seen the greatest change in crop-type? Is this due toclimate conditions or other factors? (hybrid seeds, use of nitrogen based fertilizer etc.)Alongside the dataset, I will write the life histories of two farmers to tell a story around climate change, adaptationand economic precarity over the life-course of farmers in the Cauvery delta. The chosen farmers are Octogenarians,inhabiting different parts of the Cauvery delta. I will record their life stories from the perspective of changingclimate, how they have adapted and the challenges they have faced. The questions asked will pertain to temperaturerise or decline, water quality and availability, change in crops sown, changing levels of silt deposits, coastal erosionand how these have affected social relations, and findings curated accordingly (Adamson, Hannaford, and Rohland 2018; Singh 2019).

根据第五届政府间气候变化专门委员会的数据，南亚有2.3亿人面临气候变化的风险，是任何单一地区中最大的。最近对考韦里三角洲的研究，以及更普遍的印度气候变化的研究，开始主要是从世界银行和印度空间研究组织（卫星）20世纪70年代的数据开始的，显示了自那时以来气候急剧变化的方式。然而，这些研究是基于三十年的数据。该项目利用历史数据来了解空间特有气候变化的规模、所构成的威胁、有效预测长期趋势和制定适应战略。（Mahony and Endfield 2018; Amrith 2016）。使用长期的历史数据使研究人员能够a）消除周期性模式，而不是短期气候变化的影响B）识别长期的变化模式（这是否是突然增加，（c）确定旧政权如何适应温度或灾害的变化。该项目将整理从殖民地省政府发布的报告中收集的详细数据集，并持续到后殖民时期。时代第一份是马德拉斯总统任期（1905 - 1954年）的季节和作物报告。本报告载有各区每月的统计数字，以及与该区平均降雨量比较的降雨量、普遍气温、淤泥沉积水平、不同季节种植的农作物，以及降雨量不足或过多的定性资料。1905年之前的数据并不系统，但数据是通过三个来源收集的，包括在印度六个站记录的气象观测（1879 - 1894）;在东印度公司的马德拉斯天文台进行的气象观测（1841 - 1890）;印度的降雨量（1891 - 1950）和气旋回忆录（1888 - 1893）。该数据集将包括一个可搜索的逐年、逐月的降雨量、温度、淤泥存款、作物种植指数，以系统的方式从1905 - 1950年，以不太系统的方式从1860 - 1905年。我将与法国本地治里研究所（IFP）的GIS技术人员合作，将数据转移到两种地图上。首先，创建的三幅历史地图（分别来自1888年、1917年和1945年，均配有地理参考）将包括这些年份的静态图像，并包含多个变量（彩色编码），以清晰地显示变化。变量将被添加为彩色编码图形，用户可以使用这些图形同时描绘近百年来的降雨量、温度和植被变化。第二，某些地图将描绘洪水或干旱年份（例如1872年和1924年），以显示历史上极端天气事件是如何发生的（Knowles和Hillier 2008）。该数据集将允许研究人员提出以下问题：1860 - 1950年的温度和降雨模式是什么？有证据表明1950年之前热浪和洪水的增加吗？是否有任何证据表明周期性的天气模式？农业在哪个时期（在什么气候条件下）相对稳定？哪些地区的作物类型变化最大？这是由于气候条件或其他因素？（杂交种子、氮基肥料的使用等）除了数据集，我还将写两个农民的生活史，讲述一个关于气候变化、适应和经济不稳定的故事。被选中的农民是居住在Cauvery三角洲不同地区的马达加斯加人。我将从气候变化的角度记录他们的生活故事，他们是如何适应的，他们面临的挑战。提出的问题将涉及温度上升或下降，水质和可用性，作物播种的变化，淤泥沉积物的变化水平，海岸侵蚀以及这些如何影响社会关系，以及相应的研究结果（Adamson，汉纳福德和Rohland 2018; Singh 2019）。

项目成果

INDIAN RIVERS, 'PRODUCTIVE WORKS', AND THE EMERGENCE OF LARGE DAMS IN NINETEENTH-CENTURY MADRAS

印度河流、“生产性工程”以及 19 世纪马德拉斯大型水坝的出现

• DOI: 10.1017/s0018246x20000163
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: The Historical Journal
• 作者: RAMESH A

Dam It: An Exploration of the Potential of Digital Humanities Methods in Studying Environmental Pasts and Presents in South India

Dam It：数字人文方法在印度南部环境过去和现在研究中的潜力探索

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Charlotte Evans

Bloomsbury Studies in Cultural and Social History: History of Technology (Volume v)

布鲁姆斯伯里文化和社会史研究：技术史（第五卷）

• 作者: Ramesh, A