Rethinking Climate Change in the Cauvery Delta Through Long Term Historical Data

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According to the 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 230 million people in South Asia are at risk fromClimate Change, the largest of any single region. Recent studies of the Cauvery delta, and more generally climatechange in India, begin largely with World Bank and Indian Space Research Organization (satellite) data from the1970s, showing the ways in which the climate is acutely changing since then. However, these studies are based onthirty years of data. This project uses historical data to comprehend the scale of space specific climate change, thethreats posed, effectively predict long-term trends and prepare adaptation strategies. (Mahony and Endfield 2018;Amrith 2016). Using long term historical data allows researchers to a) eliminate cyclical patterns not as effects ofimmediate climate change b) identify long term patterns of change (whether this is a sudden increase, decrease orgradual) c) identify how older regimes adapted to change in temperature or disasters.The project will curate a detailed dataset collected from reports that were published by the colonial provincialgovernment and continued into the postcolonial era. The first is the Seasonal and Crop report of the Madras presidency(1905-1954). This report contains district wise monthly statistics and qualitative information on rainfall compared tothe average rainfall for the district, the prevalent temperature, level of silt deposits, the crops grown in differentseasons and any shortfall or excess of rain. Data prior to 1905 is not systematic, but data has been gathered throughthree sources including the Meteorological Observations Recorded at Six Stations in India (1879-1894);Meteorological Observations made at the East India Company's Observatory at Madras (1841-1890); Rainfall ofIndia (1891-1950) and Cyclone Memoirs (1888-1893). The dataset will comprise of a searchable year-wise monthlyindex of rainfall, temperature, silt deposit, crops grown, in a systematic manner from 1905-1950, and in a lesssystematic manner from 1860-1905.I will work with GIS technicians at the French Institute of Pondicherry (IFP) to transfer the data on to maps of twokinds. First, three historical maps (from 1888, 1917 and 1945, all georeferenced) created will include still images ofthese years and contain multiple variables (colour coded), to visualize change clearly. Variables will be added ascolour coded graphics which users can then use to simultaneously picture rainfall, temperature and vegetationchanging over a close to a hundred years. Second, certain maps will picture years of floods or drought (for instance1872 and 1924), to show how extreme weather events have occurred historically (Knowles and Hillier 2008). Thedataset will allow researchers to ask the following questionsWhat are the patterns in temperature and rainfall from 1860-1950? Is there evidence of increasing heatwaves andfloods up until 1950? Is there any evidence of cyclical weather patterns? At which time period (under what weatherconditions) was agriculture relatively stable? Which regions have seen the greatest change in crop-type? Is this due toclimate conditions or other factors? (hybrid seeds, use of nitrogen based fertilizer etc.)Alongside the dataset, I will write the life histories of two farmers to tell a story around climate change, adaptationand economic precarity over the life-course of farmers in the Cauvery delta. The chosen farmers are Octogenarians,inhabiting different parts of the Cauvery delta. I will record their life stories from the perspective of changingclimate, how they have adapted and the challenges they have faced. The questions asked will pertain to temperaturerise or decline, water quality and availability, change in crops sown, changing levels of silt deposits, coastal erosionand how these have affected social relations, and findings curated accordingly (Adamson, Hannaford, and Rohland 2018; Singh 2019).