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Supporting fiscal policy decisions in the crisis

支持危机中的财政政策决策

基本信息

批准号：
ES/V00381X/1
负责人：
Paul Johnson
金额：
$ 15.51万
依托单位：
Institute for Fiscal Studies
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV00381X%2F1
关键词：
Supporting fiscal policy decisions crisis

项目摘要

We are going through an economic crisis. The government has responded with an unprecedented policy package, costing many tens of billions of pounds over just a few months - paying for employees to be furloughed, making payments to the self-employed, forgiving business rates, increasing public service spending and making the benefit system much more generous. Over the coming year, the government will have to decide whether to do more to insure households' incomes and prevent business failure, whether to use fiscal policy to kickstart the economy as the health crisis subsides and, ultimately, how to unwind these measures or whether to make some of them permanent. To guide these momentous decisions we propose targeted new analysis of new data sources, including a soon-to-be-available covid-19 module in a large-scale longitudinal household survey and real-time bank account data from a budgeting app. Combined with IFS' world-leading expertise on tax and benefit policy design and unrivalled familiarity with the institutional and policy context around the UK's labour market, taxes and benefits and the public finances, will inform how fiscal policies should be adjusted in the coming 12 months. We are having regular discussions and seminars with civil servants and policy advisors at the top of government through this crisis. The new work proposed here would feed in to this engagement directly, allowing us to help policy-makers take difficult decisions in this highly unusual and fast-moving economic environment, including through taking advantage of novel and timely data sources to produce the best possible empirical evidence.

我们正在经历一场经济危机。政府采取了前所未有的一揽子政策，在短短几个月内花费了数百亿英镑-支付员工休假，支付自营职业者，免除商业费率，增加公共服务支出并使福利制度更加慷慨。在未来一年，政府将不得不决定是否采取更多措施来确保家庭收入和防止企业倒闭，是否在健康危机消退时使用财政政策来刺激经济，以及最终如何取消这些措施，或者是否将其中一些措施永久化。为了指导这些重大决策，我们建议对新数据源进行有针对性的新分析，包括即将推出的大规模纵向家庭调查中的新冠病毒模块和预算应用程序中的实时银行账户数据。结合IFS在税收和福利政策设计方面的世界领先专业知识以及对英国劳动力市场制度和政策背景的无与伦比的熟悉，税收和福利以及公共财政，将为未来12个月财政政策的调整提供信息。在这场危机中，我们定期与公务员和政府高层的政策顾问进行讨论和研讨会。本文提出的新工作将直接促进这种参与，使我们能够帮助政策制定者在这种极不寻常和快速变化的经济环境中做出艰难的决定，包括利用新颖和及时的数据来源来产生最佳的经验证据。