Supporting fiscal policy decisions in the crisis

支持危机中的财政政策决策

基本信息

批准号：
ES/V00381X/1
负责人：
Paul Johnson
金额：
$ 15.51万
依托单位：
Institute for Fiscal Studies
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV00381X%2F1
关键词：
Supporting fiscal policy decisions crisis

项目摘要

We are going through an economic crisis. The government has responded with an unprecedented policy package, costing many tens of billions of pounds over just a few months - paying for employees to be furloughed, making payments to the self-employed, forgiving business rates, increasing public service spending and making the benefit system much more generous. Over the coming year, the government will have to decide whether to do more to insure households' incomes and prevent business failure, whether to use fiscal policy to kickstart the economy as the health crisis subsides and, ultimately, how to unwind these measures or whether to make some of them permanent. To guide these momentous decisions we propose targeted new analysis of new data sources, including a soon-to-be-available covid-19 module in a large-scale longitudinal household survey and real-time bank account data from a budgeting app. Combined with IFS' world-leading expertise on tax and benefit policy design and unrivalled familiarity with the institutional and policy context around the UK's labour market, taxes and benefits and the public finances, will inform how fiscal policies should be adjusted in the coming 12 months. We are having regular discussions and seminars with civil servants and policy advisors at the top of government through this crisis. The new work proposed here would feed in to this engagement directly, allowing us to help policy-makers take difficult decisions in this highly unusual and fast-moving economic environment, including through taking advantage of novel and timely data sources to produce the best possible empirical evidence.

我们正在经历经济危机。政府做出了前所未有的政策计划的回应，在短短几个月内耗资了数百亿英镑 - 支付了雇员的休假，向自雇人士付款，宽容的商业费率，提高公共服务支出并使福利制度更加慷慨。在来年，政府将不得不决定是否做更多的事情来确保家庭的收入并防止商业失败，是否使用财政政策来启动经济，因为健康危机消退，并最终如何放松这些措施，还是将其中一些措施永久性。为了指导这些重大决定，我们提出了针对新数据源的新分析，包括在大规模的纵向家庭调查和预算应用程序中实时银行帐户数据中即将确定的COVID-19模块。结合IFS的税收和福利政策设计的世界领先的专业知识，以及对英国劳动力市场，税收和福利以及公共财政的机构和政策环境无关的熟悉，将告知如何在未来12个月内调整财政政策。通过这场危机，我们定期与公务员和政策顾问进行了讨论和研讨会。这里提出的新作品将直接加入这种参与，使我们能够帮助决策者在这种高度不寻常且迅速发展的经济环境中做出艰难的决定，包括利用新颖和及时的数据源来提供最佳的经验证据。