Using Triple Access Planning to Enhance Urban Accessibility and Connectivity in the Face of Deep Uncertainty (TAP for uncertain futures)

基于预测导向范式的传统交通规划方法，导致了在缓解拥堵等问题以及实现经济、社会和环境成果方面未能实现的期望。有证据表明，计划很快就会过时，而且对未来的发展缺乏弹性。本项目旨在通过两个重要的新考虑来改进可持续城市交通规划（SUMPs），解决人员和货物的流动问题：(1)三通道规划(TAP) -未来可持续城市可达性可以通过交通系统（物理机动性）、土地利用系统（空间接近性）和电信系统（数字连接）来实现；共同构成三网接达系统。(2)适应不确定性——在规划的制定和实施方面，可以明确考虑不可预测的变化动态，如人口统计、经济发展、地点选择、监管环境、技术突破、旅行需求和利益相关者行为。这个研究项目是高度协作的，涉及五个国家的七个案例研究城市。通过按顺序处理理论、实践、设计和应用的方法学方法，将开发和发展针对不确定未来的TAP指南，以补充现有的SUMP指南。该项目将通过推进理论并将其转化为可获取的、最先进的实用指导，加强sump的复原力和适应性。

Conventional approaches to mobility planning, based on the forecast-led paradigm, have led to unrealised expectations concerning alleviating problems such as congestion and delivering economic, social and environmental outcomes. Evidence shows plans become rapidly obsolete and lack resilience with regard to future developments. This project aims to improve Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs), addressing both the movement of people and goods, through two significant new considerations:(1) Triple Access Planning (TAP) - future sustainable urban accessibility can be achieved through the transport system (physical mobility), the land-use system (spatial proximity) and the telecommunications system (digital connectivity); together constituting a Triple Access System (TAS).(2) Accommodating uncertainty - unpredictable change dynamics such as demographics, economic developments, locational choices, regulatory context, technological breakthroughs, travel demand, and stakeholder behaviour can be explicitly taken into account in the plan, in terms of development and implementation.This research project is highly collaborative and involves seven case study cities in five countries. Through a methodological approach that sequentially addresses theory, practice, design and application, TAP for uncertain futures guidance will be developed and evolved that complements existing SUMP guidelines. The project will strengthen resilience and adaptiveness in SUMPs by advancing theory and translating it into accessible, state-of-the-art, practical guidance.