Catholic-Protestant Earnings Differentials in Northern Ireland 2011 NISRA BDR Programme

劳动力市场之间的不平等天主教和新教社区在北方爱尔兰和相关的“公平就业”的辩论一直关注的政策制定者，研究人员和北方爱尔兰公众一样。例如，北方爱尔兰平等委员会每年出版一份《公平就业监测报告》，现已进入第31个年头，提供有关这一问题的最新数据。然而，这一辩论和正在进行的监测大多侧重于两个社区之间的失业和就业差异，很少分析两个社区之间的工资和/或收入差异。例如，《公平就业监测报告》没有对工资或收入差异进行分析。这反映出历来和目前都缺乏适当的数据来衡量和设法了解这种工资/收入差异。学术文献中最接近的例外可能是Borooah等人（1995年）利用家庭支出调查的数据对收入差异进行的研究，该研究发现天主教社区的平均家庭收入低于新教社区，这不能用生产特征的差异来解释。在定期监测方面，北方爱尔兰行政部门每年根据LFS发布工资中位数差异的估计值，作为其LFS宗教报告系列的一部分，最近一次是2017年（https：//www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/execoffice/lfs-religion-report-2017.pdf），但现在已经停止。最新的估计（2017年）表明没有工资中位数差异。然而，目前还不清楚我们能从这个或以前的LFS宗教报告估计中学到多少，因为它们不精确，而且随着时间的推移而波动，反映了样本量小，也可能是关于LFS产生的衍生工资变量的测量问题。LFS宗教报告也没有研究天主教徒和新教徒之间相关的可观察特征的差异，这些差异可能有助于解释甚至掩盖工资差异。最重要的是，在北方爱尔兰天主教徒和新教徒之间劳动力市场不平等的这一潜在关键方面，无论是历史上还是现在，都几乎没有可信的证据。尽管缺乏现有证据，但很难排除这种工资差距可能在2011年就已经存在，甚至可能在最近持续存在。失业差异的长期趋势可能说明了这一点。具体而言，尽管在2011年之前的几十年里，天主教徒和新教教徒的失业率差异大幅缩小，但Rowland et al.（2021）表明，当时两个社区之间的失业率差距仍然存在，至少对男性来说是这样。此外，研究表明，这一差距可以部分但不完全由两个社区可观察到的特征的差异来解释，拟议的研究将通过提供比以前可能的工资差异更精确和更详细的定量证据，解决我们对北方爱尔兰天主教和新教社区之间不平等的理解中的这一重要差距。2011年使用新的可用数据（盈利和利润研究（EES）2011）。除了作出重要的学术贡献外，通过提供一个可供比较的历史基准，这一项目将有助于为欧洲核工业委员会等机构正在进行的监测工作提供信息。这种监测可能至关重要。ECNI首席专员Geraldine McGahey曾公开表示：“我们的经验表明，如果某件事没有得到衡量，它就不太可能改变”（https：//www.equalityni.org/Footer-Links/News/Choosing-Equality/31 st-Fair-Employment-Monitoring-Report-published）。

Labour market inequality between the Catholic and Protestant communities in Northern Ireland and the associated 'fair employment' debate have long been of concern to policy makers, researchers and the Northern Ireland public alike. For example, the Equalities Commission for Northern Ireland (ECNI) publishes an annual Fair Employment Monitoring Report, now in its 31st year, presenting up to date data on this issue. However, much of this debate, and ongoing monitoring, focusses on unemployment and employment differentials between the two communities, with little analysis of wage and/or earnings differentials between the two communities. For example, the Fair Employment Monitoring Reports contain no analysis of wage or earnings differentials. This reflects a historical and ongoing lack of suitable data with which to measure and seek to understand such wage/earnings differentials. The closest exception in the academic literature is probably the Borooah et al. (1995) study of income differentials using data from the Family Expenditure Survey, which found lower mean household income among the Catholic community than among the Protestant community, which was not explained by differences in productive characteristics. In terms of regular monitoring, the Northern Ireland Executive published estimates of median wage differentials each year based on the LFS, as part of its series of LFS Religion Reports, most recently for 2017 (https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/execoffice/lfs-religion-report-2017.pdf), but nowdiscontinued. The most recent estimate (for 2017) suggested no median wage differential. It is unclear, however, how much we can learn from this or previous LFS Religion Report estimates given their imprecision and volatility over time, reflecting the small sample size and also likely the measurement problems concerning the derived wage variable produced by the LFS. Nor do the LFS Religion Reports examine differences in relevant observable characteristics between Catholics and Protestants that may help to explain or even obscure wage differentials. The bottom line is that there remains very little credible evidence on this potentially crucial aspect of labour market inequality between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland, both historically and currently.Despite this lack of existing evidence, however, it is difficult to rule out that such a wage gap may have existed as late as 2011, and might perhaps even persist more recently. The trends over time in the unemployment differential may be suggestive of this. Specifically, although there was a substantial narrowing of Catholic-Protestant unemploymentdifferentials in the decades running up to 2011, Rowland et al. (2021) show that an unemployment gap between the two communities still existed at that point, at least for men. Further, the study shows that this gap could be partly but not fully explained by differences in the observable characteristics of the two communities, including where people live.The proposed research will address this important gap in our understanding of inequality between the Catholic and Protestant communities in Northern Ireland by providing more precise and more detailed quantitative evidence than has previously been possible on the wage differential as of 2011 using newly available data (the Earnings and EmployeesStudy (EES) 2011). In addition to making an important academic contribution, by providing a historical benchmark from which to compare, this project will help to inform the ongoing monitoring efforts of, for example, ECNI. Such monitoring can be crucially important. The ECNI Chief Commissioner, Geraldine McGahey, is on record as saying: "Our experiences show that if something is not measured, it is unlikely to be changed" (https://www.equalityni.org/Footer-Links/News/Delivering-Equality/31st-Fair-Employment-Monitoring-Report-published).