Spatial heterogeneity in transmission and the impact of interventions: a mathematical modelling approach

传播的空间异质性和干预措施的影响：数学建模方法

• 批准号: MC_PC_19067
• 负责人: Leon Danon
• 金额: $ 7.49万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Intramural
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MC_PC_19067
• 关键词: Spatial; heterogeneity; transmission; impact; interventions

A new strain of Coronavirus appeared in China at the end of 2019 and is spreadingbeyond Chinese borders. The purpose of this project is to minimise the number of seriouscases and deaths caused by the virus, following spread in the United Kingdom. We willuse the latest information about the UK population, the best biological information aboutthe virus to inform mathematical models that predict where and when the disease willspread and in what numbers. This information, rapidly communicated to the NHS willprovide the best opportunity to manage care and allocate resources proactively, inadvance of the arrival of new cases of Coronavirus.

2019年底，中国出现了一种新型冠状病毒，并正在向中国境外蔓延。该项目的目的是尽量减少该病毒在联合王国传播后造成的严重病例和死亡人数。我们将使用关于英国人口的最新信息，关于病毒的最好的生物信息，来建立数学模型，预测疾病将在何时何地传播，传播的人数是多少。这些信息迅速传达给NHS，将为在新冠病毒病例到来之前主动管理护理和分配资源提供最佳机会。

项目成果

The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

• DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0273
• 发表时间: 2021-07-19
• 期刊: Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
• 作者: Brooks-Pollock E;Read JM;House T;Medley GF;Keeling MJ;Danon L
• 通讯作者: Danon L

Estimating the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory and hospital capacity requirements in South West England: a mathematical modelling framework.

• DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-041536
• 发表时间: 2021-01-07
• 期刊: BMJ open
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Booton RD;MacGregor L;Vass L;Looker KJ;Hyams C;Bright PD;Harding I;Lazarus R;Hamilton F;Lawson D;Danon L;Pratt A;Wood R;Brooks-Pollock E;Turner KME
• 通讯作者: Turner KME

Voluntary risk mitigation behaviour can reduce impact of SARS-CoV-2: a real-time modelling study of the January 2022 Omicron wave in England.

• DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02714-5
• 发表时间: 2023-01-19
• 期刊: BMC MEDICINE
• 影响因子: 9.3
• 作者: Brooks-Pollock, Ellen;Northstone, Kate;Pellis, Lorenzo;Scarabel, Francesca;Thomas, Amy;Nixon, Emily;Matthews, David A.;Bowyer, Vicky;Garcia, Maria Paz;Steves, Claire J.;Timpson, Nicholas J.;Danon, Leon
• 通讯作者: Danon, Leon

Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK.

• DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0001
• 发表时间: 2021-07-19
• 期刊: Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
• 作者: Brooks-Pollock E;Danon L;Jombart T;Pellis L
• 通讯作者: Pellis L

Clinical decision-making and algorithmic inequality.

临床决策和算法不平等。

• DOI: 10.1136/bmjqs-2022-015874
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: BMJ quality & safety
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Challen R