MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling Renewal

MRC 疫情分析和模型更新中心

• 批准号: MR/K010174/1
• 负责人: Neil Ferguson
• 金额: $ 296.37万
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FK010174%2F1
• 关键词: MRC; Centre; Outbreak; Analysis; Modelling

The threat from new infectious diseases has been highlighted in recent years by the 2003 SARS epidemic, H5N1 'bird flu' and the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic. Preparing for such eventualities is a priority for public health agencies and governments worldwide. Also, as scientific research delivers new approaches to controlling existing infectious diseases such as malaria, HIV and polio, there is a need to determine what interventions are likely to work best to limit the disease and illness caused by a specific disease in a particular setting.In this context, computer modelling of the spread of diseases in populations coupled with scientifically rigorous data analysis have proven themselves as powerful tools for giving insight into how diseases spread and what can be done to limit that control that spread. The Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling undertakes research on these scientific methods and applies them to disease threats of concern. A key feature of the Centre is the close links it has made with with public health agencies - such as the UK Health Protection Agency, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO) - organisations which have to formulate and implement strategies to control infectious diseases. The senior scientists in the Centre are world-leaders in infectious disease modelling and analysis. They have broad experience in responding to real epidemics (e.g. BSE/vCJD, SARS, H5N1 bird flu and the 2009 flu pandemic), and undertaking epidemiological research on endemic diseases (such as malaria, HIV and polio). Their work directly influences disease control policy through the many interactions the Centre has with public health organisations and governments. The funding provided by MRC and Imperial College have allowed dedicated investment into the development of close collaborative partnerships with HPA, CDC and WHO - as well as with other important organisations who work on improving health in developing countries (notably the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation). With each, we are working on a large number of research projects which have both scientific interest to Centre researchers and are contributing to the evidence base needed for public health decisions. Centre funding supports a core technical capacity available to all projects, and pays for dedicated postdoctoral research staff who spend substantial time at WHO (Geneva) and CDC (Atlanta) undertaking epidemiological research with the staff of those agencies and facilitating collaboration with other Centre staff. MRC funding has also facilitated a greater focus on collaboration, training and career development within the Centre - training the next generation of quantitative infectious disease epidemiologists. We are also involved in increasing knowledge of advanced modelling methods in public health institutions and the wider infectious disease research community, and so have run a number of introductory vocational short courses, both at Imperial College, but also on partner sites in Geneva and London.All of this applied activity depends on the more fundamental research undertaken in the Centre on the epidemic dynamics of different diseases, how diseases evolve genetically over time, and on analysing new approaches to control or treat diseases. Much of this research is multidisciplinary, involving Centre researchers working with leading clinical and experimental scientists around the world.Continued funding for the Centre will allow the collaborative partnerships established in the last 4 years to be sustained and enhanced, and new collaborations with researchers and health agencies in countries such as China and India to be developed. It will also fund new priority research areas, including work to implement the analysis and modelling methods developed by Centre staff as user-friendly computer programs that can be used by public health professionals around the world.

近年来，2003年SARS疫情、H5N1禽流感和2009年H1N1流感大流行突显了新传染病的威胁。为这种可能发生的情况做好准备是世界各地公共卫生机构和政府的优先事项。此外，随着科学研究提供控制疟疾、艾滋病毒和脊髓灰质炎等现有传染病的新方法，需要确定哪些干预措施可能最有效地限制特定环境下的疾病和由特定疾病引起的疾病。在这种情况下，对人口中疾病传播的计算机模拟加上科学上严格的数据分析已证明自己是了解疾病如何传播以及可以做些什么来限制这种传播的强大工具。疫情分析和建模中心对这些科学方法进行研究，并将其应用于令人关切的疾病威胁。该中心的一个主要特点是与公共卫生机构--如英国卫生保护局、美国疾病控制和预防中心(CDC)和世界卫生组织(WHO)--建立了密切的联系，这些组织必须制定和实施控制传染病的战略。该中心的资深科学家在传染病建模和分析方面处于世界领先地位。他们在应对真正的流行病(如疯牛病/vCJD、SARS、H5N1禽流感和2009年流感大流行)以及开展地方性疾病(如疟疾、艾滋病毒和脊髓灰质炎)的流行病学研究方面拥有广泛的经验。他们的工作通过该中心与公共卫生组织和政府的许多互动直接影响疾病控制政策。MRC和帝国理工学院提供的资金允许专门投资于发展与HPA、CDC和世卫组织以及其他致力于改善发展中国家健康的重要组织(特别是比尔和梅林达·盖茨基金会)的密切合作伙伴关系。在每个项目中，我们都在致力于大量的研究项目，这些项目既对中心的研究人员具有科学价值，又为公共卫生决策所需的证据基础做出贡献。中心的资金支持所有项目可利用的核心技术能力，并支付在世卫组织(日内瓦)和疾控中心(亚特兰大)花费大量时间与这些机构的工作人员进行流行病学研究并促进与中心其他工作人员合作的博士后研究人员。管理资源中心的资助还促进了对中心内合作、培训和职业发展的更多关注--培训下一代定量传染病流行病学家。我们还参与在公共卫生机构和更广泛的传染病研究界增加对先进建模方法的了解，因此在帝国理工学院以及日内瓦和伦敦的合作伙伴网站上举办了一些职业入门短期课程。所有这些应用活动都依赖于中心进行的关于不同疾病的流行动态、疾病如何随着时间遗传演变以及分析控制或治疗疾病的新方法的更基本的研究。这项研究的大部分是多学科的，涉及中心研究人员与世界各地领先的临床和实验科学家合作。对该中心的持续资助将使过去4年建立的合作伙伴关系得到持续和加强，并与中国和印度等国家的研究人员和卫生机构发展新的合作关系。它还将资助新的优先研究领域，包括将中心工作人员开发的分析和建模方法实施为可供世界各地公共卫生专业人员使用的用户友好的计算机程序的工作。

项目成果

Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission: strategies for analyzing transmission systems using genetic data.

可检测的情节风险影响对急性HIV传播的影响：使用遗传数据分析传输系统的策略。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2012.11.003
• 发表时间: 2013-03
• 期刊: EPIDEMICS
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Alam, Shah Jamal;Zhang, Xinyu;Romero-Severson, Ethan Obie;Henry, Christopher;Zhong, Lin;Volz, Erik M.;Brenner, Bluma G.;Koopman, James S.
• 通讯作者: Koopman, James S.

'Pre-entry screening for tuberculosis' commentary: authors' response.

“入境前结核病筛查”评论：作者的回应。

• DOI: 10.1179/2047772415z.000000000278
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: Pathogens and global health
• 影响因子: 3.4
• 作者: Aldridge RW

Feature selection methods for identifying genetic determinants of host species in RNA viruses.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003254
• 发表时间: 2013
• 期刊: PLoS computational biology
• 影响因子: 4.3
• 作者: Aguas R;Ferguson NM
• 通讯作者: Ferguson NM

Design and methods of a social network isolation study for reducing respiratory infection transmission: The eX-FLU cluster randomized trial.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.01.001
• 发表时间: 2016-06
• 期刊: Epidemics
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Aiello AE;Simanek AM;Eisenberg MC;Walsh AR;Davis B;Volz E;Cheng C;Rainey JJ;Uzicanin A;Gao H;Osgood N;Knowles D;Stanley K;Tarter K;Monto AS
• 通讯作者: Monto AS

Within-host and between-host evolutionary rates across the HIV-1 genome.

• DOI: 10.1186/1742-4690-10-49
• 发表时间: 2013-05-02
• 期刊: Retrovirology
• 影响因子: 3.3
• 作者: Alizon S;Fraser C
• 通讯作者: Fraser C