MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling Renewal

近年来，2003年的SARS疫情、H5N1“禽流感”和2009年的H1N1流感大流行凸显了新传染病的威胁。为这种可能发生的情况做好准备是全世界公共卫生机构和政府的优先事项。此外，由于科学研究提供了控制疟疾、艾滋病毒和小儿麻痹症等现有传染病的新方法，因此有必要确定哪些干预措施可能最有效地限制特定环境中由特定疾病引起的疾病。在这方面，疾病在人群中传播的计算机模型加上科学上严谨的数据分析已被证明是深入了解疾病如何传播以及可以采取哪些措施来限制对传播的控制的有力工具。爆发分析和建模中心对这些科学方法进行研究，并将其应用于令人关注的疾病威胁。该中心的一个主要特点是它与公共卫生机构建立了密切联系，例如英国健康保护局、美国疾病控制和预防中心以及世界卫生组织，这些组织必须制定和实施控制传染病的战略。该中心的资深科学家在传染病建模和分析方面处于世界领先地位。他们在应对真正的流行病（如疯牛病/vCJD、SARS、H5N1禽流感和2009年流感大流行）以及开展地方性疾病（如疟疾、艾滋病毒和脊髓灰质炎）的流行病学研究方面具有广泛的经验。他们的工作通过中心与公共卫生组织和政府的许多互动直接影响疾病控制政策。MRC和帝国理工学院提供的资金已经允许专门投资发展与HPA， CDC和WHO的密切合作伙伴关系，以及与其他致力于改善发展中国家健康的重要组织（特别是比尔和梅林达·盖茨基金会）。我们正在开展大量的研究项目，这些项目既引起中心研究人员的科学兴趣，又有助于为公共卫生决策提供所需的证据基础。中心资金支持所有项目可用的核心技术能力，并支付专门的博士后研究人员的费用，这些研究人员花大量时间在世卫组织（日内瓦）和疾病预防控制中心（亚特兰大）与这些机构的工作人员进行流行病学研究，并促进与中心其他工作人员的合作。医学研究委员会的资金也促进了中心内部更注重合作、培训和职业发展——培训下一代定量传染病流行病学家。我们还参与增加公共卫生机构和更广泛的传染病研究界对先进建模方法的了解，因此在帝国理工学院以及在日内瓦和伦敦的合作地点开设了一些介绍性职业短期课程。所有这些实际应用的活动都取决于该中心就不同疾病的流行动态、疾病如何随时间在遗传上演变以及分析控制或治疗疾病的新方法所进行的更基础的研究。这项研究大部分是多学科的，涉及中心研究人员与世界各地领先的临床和实验科学家合作。继续为该中心提供资金将使过去4年建立的合作伙伴关系得以维持和加强，并与中国和印度等国的研究人员和卫生机构开展新的合作。它还将资助新的优先研究领域，包括将中心工作人员开发的分析和建模方法作为用户友好的计算机程序实施，供世界各地的公共卫生专业人员使用。

The threat from new infectious diseases has been highlighted in recent years by the 2003 SARS epidemic, H5N1 'bird flu' and the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic. Preparing for such eventualities is a priority for public health agencies and governments worldwide. Also, as scientific research delivers new approaches to controlling existing infectious diseases such as malaria, HIV and polio, there is a need to determine what interventions are likely to work best to limit the disease and illness caused by a specific disease in a particular setting.In this context, computer modelling of the spread of diseases in populations coupled with scientifically rigorous data analysis have proven themselves as powerful tools for giving insight into how diseases spread and what can be done to limit that control that spread. The Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling undertakes research on these scientific methods and applies them to disease threats of concern. A key feature of the Centre is the close links it has made with with public health agencies - such as the UK Health Protection Agency, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO) - organisations which have to formulate and implement strategies to control infectious diseases. The senior scientists in the Centre are world-leaders in infectious disease modelling and analysis. They have broad experience in responding to real epidemics (e.g. BSE/vCJD, SARS, H5N1 bird flu and the 2009 flu pandemic), and undertaking epidemiological research on endemic diseases (such as malaria, HIV and polio). Their work directly influences disease control policy through the many interactions the Centre has with public health organisations and governments. The funding provided by MRC and Imperial College have allowed dedicated investment into the development of close collaborative partnerships with HPA, CDC and WHO - as well as with other important organisations who work on improving health in developing countries (notably the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation). With each, we are working on a large number of research projects which have both scientific interest to Centre researchers and are contributing to the evidence base needed for public health decisions. Centre funding supports a core technical capacity available to all projects, and pays for dedicated postdoctoral research staff who spend substantial time at WHO (Geneva) and CDC (Atlanta) undertaking epidemiological research with the staff of those agencies and facilitating collaboration with other Centre staff. MRC funding has also facilitated a greater focus on collaboration, training and career development within the Centre - training the next generation of quantitative infectious disease epidemiologists. We are also involved in increasing knowledge of advanced modelling methods in public health institutions and the wider infectious disease research community, and so have run a number of introductory vocational short courses, both at Imperial College, but also on partner sites in Geneva and London.All of this applied activity depends on the more fundamental research undertaken in the Centre on the epidemic dynamics of different diseases, how diseases evolve genetically over time, and on analysing new approaches to control or treat diseases. Much of this research is multidisciplinary, involving Centre researchers working with leading clinical and experimental scientists around the world.Continued funding for the Centre will allow the collaborative partnerships established in the last 4 years to be sustained and enhanced, and new collaborations with researchers and health agencies in countries such as China and India to be developed. It will also fund new priority research areas, including work to implement the analysis and modelling methods developed by Centre staff as user-friendly computer programs that can be used by public health professionals around the world.