Adaptation for future climate warming: the role of habitat creation in promoting species' range shifts.

一个正在形成的共识是，许多动物物种正在通过将它们的分布向北转移来应对当前的气候变暖。然而，为了跟踪气候，物种必须能够在人类活动极大改变的景观中扩散，在这些景观中，繁殖栖息地往往是分散的，分散在不适宜居住的城市和农业景观中。由于栖息地的丧失，一些物种无法转移，并且落后于气候变化，因为它们无法到达超出范围边缘的新地点。这种未能改变的情况令人非常担忧，因为许多落后于气候的物种是高度受保护关注的濒危物种。即使温室气体排放量立即大幅减少，由于地球气候系统的惯性，更多的变暖仍然会发生。因此，无论任何缓解措施，都有对未来变暖的承诺，因此迫切需要采取适应措施。一种通常被建议的适应措施是创造新的栖息地，作为“走廊”或“垫脚石”，允许物种在不合适的景观中迁徙，并帮助它们殖民新的地点。然而，这种创造栖息地的概念基本上是未经检验的，也没有关于这种适应方法是否成功或如何实施的全面研究。这项拟议的工作将首次对栖息地可用性对整个昆虫(蝴蝶)种群分布滞后的重要性进行系统分析。我们将开发新的动态计算机模型，通过现实的英国风景来模拟射程扩大。这些模型考虑了栖息地的可用性和适宜的气候，还包括生物过程，如扩散、出生和死亡率。我们将(1)开发和验证所有46种栖息在南方的英国蝴蝶物种的动态模型。我们将(2)使用这些模型来量化栖息地限制物种范围扩展的程度。我们将(3)使用模型来检查不同栖息地创建方案的成功，以检查哪些方案(如果有的话)足以允许范围扩大，以及哪种适应策略是最好的。该项目将产生具有相当大实用价值的成果，并解决有关物种范围限制的根本问题。它将开辟一条研究气候变化对生物多样性影响的新途径。保护战略必须包括适应战略，但环保主义者不确定该怎么做。拟议的工作将为这场辩论提供具体的科学证据。

There is an emerging consensus that many animal species are responding to current climate warming by shifting their distributions northwards. However, in order to track climate, species must be able to disperse through landscapes that have been greatly altered by human activities, and where breeding habitats are often fragmented and scattered across inhospitable urban and agricultural landscapes. Because of this habitat loss, some species are failing to shift and are lagging behind climate changes because they are unable to reach new sites beyond the range margin. This failure to shift is of great concern because many species that are lagging behind climate are endangered species of high conservation concern. Even if greenhouse gas emissions were greatly reduced immediately, more warming would still occur because of inertia in the Earth's climate system. Thus there is a commitment to future warming regardless of any mitigation, and so adaptation measures are required urgently. One commonly suggested adaptation measure is the creation of new habitats as 'corridors' or 'stepping stones' to allow species to move through unsuitable landscapes, and to help them colonise new sites. However, this notion of habitat creation is essentially untested, and there is no comprehensive study of whether such adaptation methods might be successful, or how they might be implemented. The proposed work will provide the first systematic analysis of the importance of habitat availability on distribution lags in an entire group of insects (butterflies). We will develop new dynamic computer models that simulate range expansion through realistic British landscapes. The models take account of the availability of habitat and suitable climate, and also include biological processes such as dispersal, birth and death rates. We will (1) develop and validate dynamic models for all 46 resident, southerly-distributed British butterfly species. We will (2) use these models to quantify the degree to which habitat limits species' range expansion. We will (3) use models to examine the success of different habitat creation scenarios to examine which, if any, scenarios would be sufficient to allow range expansion, and which adaptation strategy is the best. The project will produce results of considerable practical value, as well as addressing fundamental questions about limits to species ranges. It will open up a new avenue of research on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Conservation strategies must include adaptation strategies, but conservationists are uncertain about what to do. The proposed work will provide a concrete body of scientific evidence to inform this debate.