Integrating Ancient DNA and Ecological Modelling to Quantify the Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity

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There is currently widespread concern for the survival of many mammal species in Europe. This concern is to a large extent derived from model-based predictions on how future climate change will affect European biodiversity. Current species distribution models suggest that climate change will cause habitats to shift or contract northwards, and will result in high rates of extinction for the coming 100 years. However, such predictions are controversial, due largely to the uncertainties in how species respond to changes in habitat availability. Central to this problem is the habitat tracking hypothesis, which states that populations will respond to changes in habitat availability by altering their distributions accordingly. Here, we propose a novel and multi-disciplinary approach to investigate the underlying mechanisms that determine the probability and extent of climate-induced habitat tracking in European mammals. We will combine recently developed ancient DNA approaches with species distribution models to construct a detailed investigation of habitat tracking in nine model species in real time through the last 40,000 years. This will allow us to establish the tempo and mode of population response to climate change, as well as to evaluate, adjust and employ existing forecasting models to more accurately predict future responses.