Modelling disease, demography and dispersal in the Woodchester badger society.

我们的总体目标是估计獾和牛之间牛结核病（bTB）的传播率，并确定影响这一关键流行病学参数的獾种群人口统计学过程的关键环境压力源。目前的观点认为，獾之间的bTB传播是由行为参数（运动和殖民化）驱动的，而不是人口密度本身。为了验证这一假设，我们将使用基于伍德彻斯特公园长期数据集的獾人口统计学经验模型，以及地方和国家规模的牛群崩溃率数据库。关键的流行病学参数将从这些耦合数据集的贝叶斯统计分析中逆向工程。学生将接受模拟和投影矩阵人口模型、空间和贝叶斯统计以及野生动物流行病学方面的培训。结果应该为牛结核病管理战略的政策提供信息。其他产出将包括对表型特征（例如疾病易感性）、人口学（人口和设定年龄/阶段结构）和人口动态之间的统计联系的文献作出重要贡献。伍彻斯特公园项目始于1976年，是纵向人口研究和标准化临床抽样的独特结合。该项目基于bb1000 000只个体獾和bb1000 000只抽样事件的历史。它产生了100多篇同行评议的出版物。

Our overarching goal is to estimate the rate of transmission of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) between badgers and cattle, and to identify the key environmental stressors demographic processes of badger populations that influence this critical epidemiological parameter. Current wisdom states that bTB transmission between badgers is driven by behavioural parameters (movement and colonisation) rather than population densities per se. To test this hypothesis we will use empirical models of badger demography based on the Woodchester Park longterm dataset, coupled with local- and national-scale databases of cattle herd breakdown rates. Key epidemiological parameters will be reverse-engineered from Bayesian statistical analyses of these coupled datasets. The student will receive training in simulation and projection matrix population modelling, in spatial and Bayesian statistics and in wildlife epidemiology. Results should inform policy on strategies for the management of bovine TB. Other outputs will include key contributions to the literature on statistical links between phenotypic traits (e.g. disease susceptibility), demography (population and sett age/stage structure) and population dynamics. The Woodchester Park project was initiated in 1976 and is a unique combination of longitudinal demographic study and standardised clinical sampling. The project is based on the histories of >3000 individual badgers and >14000 sampling events. It has resulted in >100 peer-reviewed publications.