Modelling disease, demography and dispersal in the Woodchester badger society.

对伍德切斯特獾社会的疾病、人口统计和传播进行建模。

• 批准号: NE/H018069/1
• 负责人: David Hodgson
• 金额: $ 9.15万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Training Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2010 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FH018069%2F1
• 关键词: Modelling; disease; demography; dispersal; Woodchester

Our overarching goal is to estimate the rate of transmission of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) between badgers and cattle, and to identify the key environmental stressors demographic processes of badger populations that influence this critical epidemiological parameter. Current wisdom states that bTB transmission between badgers is driven by behavioural parameters (movement and colonisation) rather than population densities per se. To test this hypothesis we will use empirical models of badger demography based on the Woodchester Park longterm dataset, coupled with local- and national-scale databases of cattle herd breakdown rates. Key epidemiological parameters will be reverse-engineered from Bayesian statistical analyses of these coupled datasets. The student will receive training in simulation and projection matrix population modelling, in spatial and Bayesian statistics and in wildlife epidemiology. Results should inform policy on strategies for the management of bovine TB. Other outputs will include key contributions to the literature on statistical links between phenotypic traits (e.g. disease susceptibility), demography (population and sett age/stage structure) and population dynamics. The Woodchester Park project was initiated in 1976 and is a unique combination of longitudinal demographic study and standardised clinical sampling. The project is based on the histories of >3000 individual badgers and >14000 sampling events. It has resulted in >100 peer-reviewed publications.

我们的总体目标是估计獾和牛之间的牛结核病（bTB）的传播率，并确定影响这一关键流行病学参数的獾种群的关键环境压力因素的人口过程。目前的观点认为，獾之间的bTB传播是由行为参数（运动和殖民）而不是人口密度本身驱动的。为了验证这一假设，我们将使用獾人口统计学的经验模型的基础上，伍德切斯特公园长期数据集，再加上当地和国家规模的牛群分解率的数据库。关键流行病学参数将从这些耦合数据集的贝叶斯统计分析中进行逆向工程。学生将接受模拟和投影矩阵人口建模，空间和贝叶斯统计以及野生动物流行病学方面的培训。研究结果应告知牛结核病管理战略的政策。其他产出将包括对有关表型性状（如疾病易感性）、人口统计学（人口和出生年龄/阶段结构）和人口动态之间统计联系的文献的重要贡献。伍德切斯特公园项目于1976年启动，是纵向人口统计学研究和标准化临床抽样的独特组合。该项目基于>3000只獾和>14000次抽样事件的历史。它产生了超过100篇同行评审的出版物。