权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

Modelling the effects of realistic polar stratospheric clouds on past climate and future ozone

模拟现实极地平流层云对过去气候和未来臭氧的影响

基本信息

批准号：
NE/H024778/1
负责人：
Peter Braesicke
金额：
$ 14.83万
依托单位：
University of Cambridge
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2011 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FH024778%2F1
关键词：
Modelling effects realistic polar stratospheric

项目摘要

Climate change and its attribution to human activity is the most important global environmental challenge of the 21st Century. Stratospheric ozone depletion due to reactive chlorine from CFCs was one of the most important of the 20th Century. Any unexplained climate change would lead to severe loss of confidence in science-based advice when priorities for implementing the Kyoto Protocol or its successors are being debated. Any unexplained delay in the recovery of ozone depletion, expected because of the Montreal Protocol, could lead to similar loss of confidence by opinion formers and policy makers. Here we propose to investigate a large unexplained change in Antarctic climate and a strong possibility of delayed recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, and proffer explanations. The largest warming observed in the troposphere in the last 30 years occurred in the mid- troposphere in Antarctic winter. This recent discovery cannot yet be explained - computer modelling with increased greenhouse gases shows too small a warming - but recent work has implicated increased Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs). We propose to test the hypothesis that a combination of increased greenhouse gases and increased PSCs has caused the warming. We would conduct a thorough modelling study, after inserting a comprehensive PSC growth scheme, and an improved calculation of the stratospheric cold points induced by atmospheric waves above mountains, into the premier UK atmospheric model. The improved model will also be used to forecast the future evolution of the ozone hole. During the 21st Century, CFCs are expected to reduce. But greenhouse gases will continue to increase, which will act to cool the stratosphere and so produce more PSCs. This latter process may significantly delay the expected recovery of the ozone hole. This proposal combines world leaders in PSC and atmospheric chemistry modelling at Leeds and Cambridge Universities with BAS expertise in Antarctic climate attribution and publicity, to create an exceptionally strong team. This work should be done now before the unexplained change in Antarctic climate comes to the attention of the wider media and public.

气候变化及其对人类活动的影响是21世纪最重要的全球环境挑战。由氟氯化碳产生的活性氯造成的平流层臭氧消耗是 20 世纪最严重的问题之一。在讨论实施《京都议定书》或其后续协议的优先事项时，任何无法解释的气候变化都将导致人们对基于科学的建议严重丧失信心。由于《蒙特利尔议定书》而预计的臭氧消耗恢复过程中任何无法解释的延迟都可能导致舆论形成者和政策制定者同样失去信心。在这里，我们建议调查南极气候的巨大无法解释的变化以及南极臭氧空洞延迟恢复的强烈可能性，并提供解释。过去30年观测到的对流层最大变暖发生在南极冬季的对流层中层。最近的这一发现尚无法解释——温室气体增加的计算机模型显示变暖幅度太小——但最近的工作表明极地平流层云（PSC）增加。我们建议检验温室气体增加和 PSC 增加共同导致变暖的假设。在将全面的 PSC 增长方案以及对山脉上方大气波引起的平流层冷点的改进计算插入到英国首要大气模型中之后，我们将进行彻底的建模研究。改进后的模型还将用于预测臭氧空洞的未来演变。在 21 世纪，CFC 预计会减少。但温室气体将继续增加，这将导致平流层变冷，从而产生更多的PSC。后一个过程可能会大大延迟臭氧空洞的预期恢复。该提案将利兹大学和剑桥大学的 PSC 和大气化学建模方面的世界领先者与 BAS 在南极气候归因和宣传方面的专业知识结合起来，组建了一支异常强大的团队。这项工作应该在南极气候无法解释的变化引起更广泛的媒体和公众的关注之前完成。