[WATER] Development of a quantitative risk assessment model for diffuse pollution from estuarine landfill sites associated with climate change

[水] 开发与气候变化相关的河口垃圾填埋场扩散污染的定量风险评估模型

• 批准号: NE/I018212/1
• 负责人: Kate Spencer
• 金额: $ 9.88万
• 依托单位: Queen Mary University of London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Training Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI018212%2F1
• 关键词: WATER; Development; quantitative; risk; assessment

Under current predictions for climate change the hydrology of rivers and estuaries is likely to change with sea level rise, coastal flooding and increased precipitation, resulting in saline incursion and bank erosion in the upper estuaries of many river systems (IPCC 2007). This poses a significant threat to the many landfill sites situated on/near river and estuary banks, where the potential for diffuse discharge of pollutants has not been quantified and is poorly understood. Landfill managers have a duty of care towards the adjacent aquatic environment. Yet, currently there are few tools for assessing the risk to rivers and estuaries associated with changes to hydrological regime due to climate change. The main aim of the PhD project will be: To develop a quantitative risk assessment model (RAM) for diffuse pollution from estuarine landfill sites associated with climate change. Research objectives (ROs): 1. To assess the current release of diffuse pollution and potential for landfill failure in upper estuarine landfill sites 2. To understand the change in contaminant behaviour following saline intrusion 3. To understand the change in geotechnical properties of landfill materials and landfill stability following saline intrusion 4. To develop a quantitative RAM to assess the release of diffuse pollutants to the aquatic environment following saline intrusion of landfill sites Methodological approach: ROs 1-3 will be addressed by combining field- and laboratory- based investigations. This will improve fundamental understanding of diffuse pollution from bankside landfill sites and will also provide baseline data and input parameters for model development under RO 4. 1) Field-based investigations (Year 1): To address RO 1, the student will conduct environmental quality and geotechnical investigations of the historic Crossways landfill site on Rainham Marshes in the Thames Estuary. Sampling, environmental analysis of soil/sediment and pore water, and a geotechnical assessment of landfill failure will be carried out following EA guidelines, based on current conditions. Datasets will be examined to explore relationships between environmental and geotechnical parameters and to determine pathways of diffuse pollutant release. 2) Laboratory-based investigations (Year 2): To address RO 2, sorption behaviour of pollutants, under current and saline conditions, will be determined using batch sorption experiments. To address RO 3 changes to soil structure, geotechnical properties and mineralogy will be observed before and after saline intrusion using a monolith test, where landfill material will be suspended in a seawater solution. Temporal changes to analyte concentrations will be measured in the surrounding solution, soil structure and mineralogy will be observed using scanning electron microscopy. 3) Risk assessment modelling (Year 3): Geotechnical models assess the risk of failure of a structure (such as the current Hungary wall collapse), but cannot predict the behaviour of the contaminants in the released sediments. Here, an environmental RAM, coupled to a geotechnical and hydrodynamic model, will allow for a better assessment of risk and a determination of controls on potential contaminant release. Training: Research training and PPD are offered through formal taught courses within QMUL. The student will also receive subject specific training; sample collection, environmental analysis, field/survey techniques, regulatory approach to landfill*, geotechnical site investigations* and risk assessment modelling* (*at Arcadis). The student will attend two PG taught courses in 1) multivariate stats (UCL) and 2) Biogeochemical cycling (QMUL). Outputs: Outputs will include; an improved understanding of the potential for landfill failure and release of diffuse pollutants following climate change, protocols for risk assessment associated with climate change, and a quantitative RAM.

根据目前对气候变化的预测，河流和河口的水文可能会随着海平面上升、沿海洪水和降水增加而发生变化，从而导致许多河流水系上游河口的盐水入侵和河岸侵蚀（IPCC 2007）。这对位于河流和河口岸边/附近的许多垃圾填埋场构成了重大威胁，在这些地方，污染物扩散排放的可能性尚未量化，而且人们对其了解甚少。填埋管理人员有责任对邻近的水生环境予以注意。然而，目前很少有工具可以评估气候变化引起的水文状况变化对河流和河口的风险。博士项目的主要目标是：开发与气候变化相关的河口垃圾填埋场弥漫性污染的定量风险评估模型（RAM）。研究目标（ROs）：评估目前河口上游堆填区的扩散污染排放情况及堆填失败的可能性。了解盐水侵入后污染物行为的变化。了解盐侵后填埋材料岩土力学特性及填埋稳定性的变化。开发定量RAM，以评估垃圾填埋场盐水入侵后弥漫性污染物向水生环境的释放。方法学方法：ROs 1-3将通过结合现场和实验室调查来解决。这将提高对河岸堆填区的扩散污染的基本认识，并将为RO 4下的模型开发提供基线数据和输入参数。1)实地调查（一年级）：为了解决RO 1的问题，学生将对泰晤士河口雷纳姆沼泽的历史十字路口垃圾填埋场进行环境质量和岩土工程调查。我们会按照环境评估指引，根据现时情况，对土壤/沉积物和孔隙水进行抽样、环境分析，以及对堆填区失效情况进行岩土工程评估。将检查数据集，以探索环境和岩土参数之间的关系，并确定扩散污染物释放的途径。2)基于实验室的调查（二年级）：为了解决RO 2，污染物在当前和盐水条件下的吸附行为，将使用批量吸附实验来确定。为了研究RO - 3对土壤结构的影响，将采用整体测试来观察盐水侵入前后的岩土力学特性和矿物学，将堆填材料悬浮在海水溶液中。将测量周围溶液中分析物浓度的时间变化，使用扫描电子显微镜观察土壤结构和矿物学。3)风险评估模型（3年级）：岩土工程模型评估结构失效的风险（如当前匈牙利墙倒塌），但不能预测释放沉积物中污染物的行为。在这里，环境RAM与岩土和流体动力学模型相结合，可以更好地评估风险，并确定对潜在污染物释放的控制。培训：通过QMUL的正式授课课程提供研究培训和PPD。学生还将接受特定学科的培训；样本收集、环境分析、实地/调查技术、堆填区的监管方法*、岩土工地调查*和风险评估模型*（*在Arcadis）。该学生将参加两门研究生授课课程：1)多元统计（UCL）和2)生物地球化学循环（QMUL）。产出：产出将包括；提高对气候变化后垃圾填埋失败和扩散污染物释放的可能性的认识，与气候变化相关的风险评估方案，以及定量RAM。