LTLS: Analysis and simulation of the Long-Term / Large-Scale interactions of C, N and P in UK land, freshwater and atmosphere

在最近的几十年和几个世纪里，英国生态系统中碳、氮和磷的储库和通量已经被农业的扩散和以肥料为基础的集约化、大气污染以及现在由化石燃料引起的气候变化所改变。我们需要了解决定这些影响的过程，以便提高农业的可持续性，保护碳储量，控制陆地和淡水生态系统的富营养化，减少向海洋的养分输送和温室气体排放。当代土壤和沉积物中的碳、氮和磷库反映了在一系列时间尺度（土壤有机质周转可达1000年或更长时间）和一系列空间尺度上发生的过程。我们建议研究解决环境中碳、氮和磷的长期、大规模处理问题。主要目标是根据过去的投入、生物和非生物的相互作用以及运输过程，对可观测到的陆地和水生碳、氮和磷库、浓度和通量进行解释，以便解决下列科学问题；1. 在过去的200年里，英国不同流域的土壤C、N和P库对养分富集的时间响应是什么？2. C、N和P从陆地向大气、淡水和河口的转移有什么影响？陆地和淡水生物多样性如何对不同地点的养分富集所产生的生态系统生产力的增加作出反应？我们的目标是对英国长期以来相互联系的土地和水源以及碳、氮和磷的年通量进行综合定量描述。该项目的核心是应用、开发和参数化适用于长时间尺度和广泛空间尺度的基于机械的模型。这些模型的设计目的是利用英国现有的大量生物地球化学数据，并采用新的有针对性的测量方法来填补重要的空白。土壤和水体中天然有机质的放射性碳数据是一个关键成分，它提供了一种估算有机质长期周转率的独特方法。该项目分为以下七个工作包。WP1数据。这涉及监测和调查数据的整理和管理以及文献检索。驱动和参数化模型将需要数据。WP2新的测量。将获得有关燃料释放的碳和氮、土壤中碳、氮、磷和放射性碳的浓度、植被中碳、氮和磷的含量、土壤反硝化的主要工作、河流有机质包括放射性碳含量等方面的空白填补信息。WP3大气模式。这将使用各种数据和大气物理学，以5平方公里分辨率描述英国从1800年到现在的氮沉降，并考虑到工业和农业的排放。WP4地面模式。将开发模型并将其参数化，以描述(a)自然和农业土壤中碳、氮和磷的生物地球化学循环，模拟气体逃逸和溶质浸出造成的损失，以及(b)物理侵蚀。WP5水生模型。这些将描述有机物（包括碳、氮和磷）的沉积物运输、湖泊处理、反硝化和地下水运输。点源输入将被量化。WP6集成模型。IM将把WP3-5的模型整合到一个基于网格的水文系统中，适用于整个英国。通过IM，我们将回答问题1和2，为具有代表性的集水区生产时间和空间的陆地和水生产出。情景评估将包括对不确定性的估计，并适用于未来情景分析。WP7生物多样性。WP3-6的模型输出将用于分析湖泊沉积物中的陆生植物多样性和硅藻多样性，从而解决问题3。

During recent decades and centuries, pools and fluxes of C, N and P in UK ecosystems have been transformed by the spread and fertiliser-based intensification of agriculture, by atmospheric pollution, and now by fossil-fuel induced climate change. We need to understand the processes that determine these effects, in order to improve the sustainability of agriculture, preserve carbon stocks, control the eutrophication of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, and reduce nutrient delivery to the sea and greenhouse gas emissions. Contemporary pools of C, N and P in soils and sediments reflect processes occurring on a range of timescales (up to 1000 years or more for organic matter turnover in soils) and also over a range of spatial scales. We propose research to address long-term, large scale processing of C, N and P in the environment. The principal objective is to account for observable terrestrial and aquatic pools, concentrations and fluxes of C, N and P on the basis of past inputs, biotic and abiotic interactions, and transport processes, in order to address the following scientific questions; 1. Over the last 200 years, what have been the temporal responses of soil C, N and P pools in different UK catchments to nutrient enrichment? 2. What have been the consequent effects on C, N and P transfers from land to the atmosphere, freshwaters and estuaries?3. How have terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity responded to increases in ecosystem productivity engendered by nutrient enrichment at different locations?We aim at an integrated quantitative description of the interlinked land and water pools and annual fluxes of C, N and P for the UK over time. Central to the project is the application, development and parameterisation of mechanistically-based models applicable over long timescales and at a broad spatial scale. The models will be designed to exploit the large number of existing biogeochemical data for the UK, with new targeted measurements to fill important gaps. A key ingredient is radiocarbon data for natural organic matter in soils and waters, which provide a unique means of estimating longer-term turnover rates of organic matter. The project is organised into seven workpackages, as follows.WP1 Data. This involves the collation and management of monitoring and survey data and literature searches. Data will be required for driving and parameterising models.WP2 New measurements. Gap-filling information will be obtained about C & N releases from fuels, soil concentrations of C, N, P, and radiocarbon, vegetation contents of C, N and P, a major effort on soil denitrification, riverine organic matter including radiocarbon contents.WP3 Atmospheric model. This will use a variety of data, and atmospheric physics, to describe N deposition at 5 km2 resolution for the UK from 1800 to the present, and take into account emissions from industry and agriculture.WP4 Terrestrial models. Models will be developed and parameterised to describe (a) biogeochemical cycling of C, N and P in natural and agricultural soils, simulating losses by gaseous evasion and solute leaching, and (b) physical erosion.WP5 Aquatic models. These will describe sediment transport of organic matter (including C, N and P), lake processing, denitrification, and groundwater transport. Point source inputs will be quantified.WP6 Integrated Model. The IM will bring together the models from WP3-5 within a grid-based hydrological system, applicable to the whole of the UK. Through the IM we will answer Questions 1 and 2, producing temporal and spatial terrestrial and aquatic outputs for representative catchments. The IM will include estimates of uncertainty and be applicable for future scenario analysis.WP7 Biodiversity. Model output from WP3-6 will be used to analyse terrestrial plant diversity and diatom diversity in lake sediments, thereby addressing Question 3.