Shifting climate as a predictor for change in marine biodiversity at local, regional and global scales

气候变化是地方、区域和全球范围内海洋生物多样性变化的预测因素

• 批准号: NE/J021938/1
• 负责人: Pippa Moore
• 金额: $ 3.28万
• 依托单位: Aberystwyth University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ021938%2F1
• 关键词: Shifting; climate; predictor; change; marine

Climate change affects everyone and every living thing on the planet. There is a general agreement among scientists that the world is warming, and that burning coal, gas and oil by people is the main reason for this, through the production of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide. As people living in poverty are vulnerable to the effects of change, so are those organisms living near their tolerance limits for temperature, and other environmental factors, at the edges of their geographical ranges on the planet. A small increase in temperature might mean little to those in the middle of their comfort zone but, to those animals and plants already at their extreme limits, this can mean the difference between life and death. Small warming in global and regional temperatures will mean that new environments, that were previously too cold, will become habitable thus extending current distributions whereas, at the other end of the scale, some areas will start to experience temperatures that are too warm and the organism dies out in the region. Thus, the patterns of temperature change can be used to show how species' boundaries could shift as a consequence of climate change.Similarly, temperature can be the signal for when many animals breed, start migrating and for when plants grow, flower, and fruit. In a warming world spring temperatures are becoming earlier and autumn temperatures are delayed, so if animals or plants are to operate best in their new climates they should adjust when they undertake their seasonal events like mating or producing leaves and flowers.We have developed a way of turning measurements and projections for climate change into expectations for changes in animals and plant distributions, using an existing measurement called the 'velocity of climate change', and for changes in seasonal events, using a new approach developed by ourselves called the 'seasonal climate shift'. These measures show by how much life should have shifted its operations over the last 50 years to stay in the same temperatures. In this project we wish to see how well this new approach matches up with observed responses of marine life to climate change in order that it can be used by conservation and wildlife decision makers. The sources of biological evidence have already been compiled into a database, but the detailed comparisons have not yet been made.Our project has six aims:1. We wish to compare patterns of velocity and biodiversity across the globe, and see how life in fast moving climates differs from that in slow moving climates.2. We want to see whether there will be a loss of species in some areas and a gain in others, for example where land obstructs the climate-driven movement of life in the ocean, as predicted by the patterns of movement of average temperatures. 3. Velocity of climate change allows us to predict by how far and at what rate life should have moved over particular periods. We want to compare our predictions with observed changes, and see how well these match up.4. In a similar way, our 'seasonal climate shift' will be used to predict the changes in timing of seasonal events for those changes in timing already reported and for changes in timing that have not yet been analysed in this way.5. We will make predictions on the effects of future climate-related change by applying our methods to the ocean temperatures predicted by global climate models for 2010-2100. 6. Finally, we want to make the findings of the project as widely applicable as possible. We will start this process by preparing recommendations for the layout of protected areas in the ocean to allow for the longest possible effects of any protection, to help life move from one place to another while still enjoying protection, and to help manage change in seasonal efforts like fishing.

气候变化影响着地球上的每一个人和每一种生物。科学家们普遍认为，世界正在变暖，人们燃烧煤炭、天然气和石油是造成这一现象的主要原因，因为它们产生了温室气体，主要是二氧化碳。 由于生活在贫困中的人们很容易受到变化的影响，那些生活在地球地理范围边缘、接近温度和其他环境因素耐受极限的生物体也很容易受到影响。温度的小幅上升对于那些处于舒适区中间的动物来说可能意义不大，但对于那些已经处于极限的动植物来说，这可能意味着生与死的区别。全球和区域气温的小幅变暖将意味着以前太冷的新环境将变得适合居住，从而扩大目前的分布范围，而在规模的另一端，一些地区将开始经历太热的温度，该地区的生物体就会灭绝。因此，温度变化的模式可以用来显示物种边界如何因气候变化而发生变化。同样，温度可以作为许多动物何时繁殖、开始迁徙以及植物何时生长、开花和结果的信号。在一个变暖的世界中，春季气温变得更早，秋季气温推迟，因此，如果动物或植物要在新的气候中保持最佳状态，它们就应该在进行季节性活动（如交配或生叶和开花）时进行调整。我们开发了一种方法，可以利用称为“气候变化速度”的现有测量方法，将气候变化的测量和预测转化为对动植物分布变化的预期，并使用新的方法将气候变化的测量和预测转化为对动物和植物分布变化的预期。 我们自己开发的方法称为“季节性气候变化”。这些措施表明，在过去 50 年里，为了保持相同的温度，生命应该改变多少运作方式。在这个项目中，我们希望了解这种新方法与观察到的海洋生物对气候变化的反应如何匹配，以便保护和野生动物决策者可以使用它。生物证据的来源已经被编入数据库，但尚未进行详细的比较。我们的项目有六个目标：1。我们希望比较全球范围内的速度模式和生物多样性，并了解快速变化气候中的生命与缓慢变化气候中的生命有何不同。2。我们想了解某些地区的物种是否会减少，而另一些地区的物种则会增加，例如，正如平均气温变化模式所预测的那样，陆地阻碍了海洋中由气候驱动的生命运动。 3. 气候变化的速度使我们能够预测生命在特定时期内移动的距离和速度。我们希望将我们的预测与观察到的变化进行比较，看看它们的匹配程度如何。4。以类似的方式，我们的“季节性气候变化”将用于预测已经报告的时间变化和尚未以这种方式分析的时间变化的季节性事件的时间变化。5。我们将通过将我们的方法应用于全球气候模型预测的 2010-2100 年海洋温度来预测未来气候相关变化的影响。 6. 最后，我们希望使该项目的研究成果尽可能广泛地适用。我们将通过为海洋保护区的布局提出建议来开始这一进程，以允许任何保护的效果尽可能最长，帮助生命从一个地方迁移到另一个地方，同时仍然享受保护，并帮助管理捕鱼等季节性活动的变化。

项目成果

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas

提高气候景观指标的可解释性：日本海洋保护区的生态风险分析

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13665
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Global Change Biology
• 影响因子: 11.6
• 作者: García Molinos J

Categorizing and Naming MARINE HEATWAVES

• DOI: 10.5670/oceanog.2018.205
• 发表时间: 2018-06-01
• 期刊: OCEANOGRAPHY
• 影响因子: 2.8
• 作者: Hobday, Alistair J.;Oliver, Eric C. J.;Smale, Dan A.
• 通讯作者: Smale, Dan A.

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13635
• 发表时间: 2017-05-01
• 期刊: GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
• 影响因子: 11.6
• 作者: Fogarty, Hannah E.;Burrows, Michael T.;Poloczanska, Elvira S.
• 通讯作者: Poloczanska, Elvira S.

Ocean community warming responses explained by thermal affinities and temperature gradients

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0631-5
• 发表时间: 2019-12-01
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Burrows, Michael T.;Bates, Amanda E.;Poloczanska, Elvira S.
• 通讯作者: Poloczanska, Elvira S.