Driving space weather forecasts with real data

用真实数据进行空间天气预报

• 批准号: NE/J024678/1
• 负责人: Christopher Scott
• 金额: $ 35.66万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ024678%2F1
• 关键词: Driving; space; weather; forecasts; real

Space weather, the result of variable conditions in the near-Earth solar wind, has a number of adverse effects on Earth- and space-based technologies, particularly power infrastructure, and communication, Earth-observation and GPS satellites. Our increasing reliance on such technologies drives an increasing need to reliably forecast space weather. NERC has a central role in the science of forecasting and mitigating such natural hazards, and the UK Met Office (UKMO) is currently developing its own space-weather forecasting system.Advanced space-weather forecasting relies on a chain of numerical models to simulate the propagation of disturbances from the Sun to the Earth. Currently, this coupled system of models is driven by observations of the magnetic field at the solar photosphere. This is used to model the magnetic field structure in the solar corona. Unfortunately this provides only very indirect information about the speed or density of disturbances, meaning estimates of their arrival time and characteristics are not well constrained. The recently developed Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments allow the first continual observations of the solar wind structure between the Sun and the Earth. We propose to use these direct solar wind measurements to drive the chain of space-weather forecast models, which should provide a vast improvement of the skill in which the forecast of near-Earth solar wind conditions. This new forecast scheme will require the solar wind speed and density to be estimated from HI data. Solar wind magnetic field information will still be derived by the existing method of coronal magnetic field modelling. Density will be derived from the absolute brightness of structures observed by HI. Speed will require solar wind features to be tracked through consecutive HI images. This will initially be performed by human observers, as part of the citizen science project, Solar Stormwatch. Later in the project, this tracking process will be fully automated, allowing analysis of a much greater quantity of HI data and for the scheme to be more readily transitioned into operational forecast use. The proposed 3-year work plan covers the full development and testing of the new forecast scheme. At the end of the project, the scheme will be transitioned to the UK Met Office. It is then expected to be adopted internationally through the UKMO's close collaboration with the Space Weather Prediction Center in the US.

太空天气是近地太阳风变化条件的结果，对地球和太空技术，尤其是电力基础设施，通信，地球观察和GPS卫星都有许多不利影响。我们对这种技术的越来越依赖驱动了越来越多的需求，以可靠地预测空间天气。 NERC在预测和缓解这种自然危害的科学中起着核心作用，英国大都会队（UKMO）目前正在开发自己的太空天气天气预测系统。太空天气天气预测依赖于数值模型链以模拟从太阳到地球的干扰繁殖。当前，这种模型耦合系统是由太阳光球的磁场观察到的。这用于对太阳电晕中的磁场结构进行建模。不幸的是，这仅提供有关干扰速度或密度的非常间接的信息，这意味着其到达时间和特征的估计不受限制。最近开发的Heliosperic Imager（HI）仪器允许对太阳与地球之间的太阳风结构进行第一次连续观察。我们建议使用这些直接的太阳风测量值来推动太空天气预测型模型，这应该可以大大提高近地太阳风条件预测的技能。这种新的预测方案将需要从HI数据估算的太阳风速和密度。太阳风磁场信息仍将通过现有的冠状磁场建模方法得出。密度将源自HI观察到的结构的绝对亮度。速度将需要通过连续的HI图像跟踪太阳风能。这最初将由人类观察者（作为太阳风暴雨天的公民科学项目的一部分）进行。在项目的稍后，此跟踪过程将完全自动化，从而可以分析大量的HI数据，并更容易地将其更容易地转换为操作预测。拟议的3年工作计划涵盖了新预测计划的全面开发和测试。在项目结束时，该计划将过渡到英国大都会办公室。然后，预计将通过UKMO与美国太空天气预测中心的密切合作在国际上采用。

项目成果

The National Eclipse Weather Experiment: an assessment of citizen scientist weather observations.

• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2015.0220
• 发表时间: 2016-09-28
• 期刊: Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
• 作者: Barnard L;Portas AM;Gray SL;Harrison RG
• 通讯作者: Harrison RG

Solar Stormwatch: tracking solar eruptions

• DOI: 10.1093/astrogeo/atv131
• 发表时间: 2015-08
• 期刊: Astronomy & Geophysics
• 影响因子: 0.8
• 作者: L. Barnard;C. Scott;M. Owens;M. Lockwood;Kimberley Tucker-Hood;J. Wilkinson;B. Harder;E. Baeten

Solar cycle 24: what is the Sun up to?

太阳周期24：太阳在做什么？

• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-4004.2012.53309.x
• 发表时间: 2012
• 期刊: Astronomy & Geophysics
• 影响因子: 0.8
• 作者: Lockwood M

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux, and streamer belt width: 2. Comparison with the geomagnetic data

太阳黑子数量、开放太阳通量和流带宽度的百年变化：2.与地磁数据的比较

• DOI: 10.1002/2014ja019972
• 发表时间: 2014
• 期刊: Space Physics
• 作者: Lockwood M

The Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue: results from the first space weather citizen science project

• DOI: 10.1002/2014sw001119
• 发表时间: 2012-01-01
• 期刊: Space Weather
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Barnard, LM