Determining and understanding substorm energy loss and partitioning

确定和理解亚暴能量损失和分配

• 批准号: NE/L006456/1
• 负责人: Mervyn Freeman
• 金额: $ 8.43万
• 依托单位: British Antarctic Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL006456%2F1
• 关键词: Determining; understanding; substorm; energy; loss

The substorm is a repeatable earthquake-like disturbance to near-Earth Space, which, apparently unpredictably, recurs after anything from 2 hours to a day or more and dumps typically one thousand million million Joules of energy into the upper atmosphere equivalent to ten Oklahoma tornados or the largest nuclear weapon in the US arsenal. The substorm's intermittency and variable size makes it arguably the greatest source of uncertainty in predicting the state of the upper atmosphere. Its most obvious effect is the aurora, which would be nice to know when its happening so that we could plan our Arctic holidays, but substorm prediction is also important for mitigating the effects of natural changes in the upper atmosphere on geostationary satellite communications and navigation, low-altitude satellite orbits and remote sensing, electricity power grids, and oil and mineral prospecting. Prediction is also the ultimate test for our scientific understanding. Progress requires measuring and analysing substorm variability in order to test and develop models based on maths and physics. We already know the statistics of substorm timing and have explained this with a simple mathematical model (that has also been used for understanding neuron firing in the brain!). However, knowing and understanding the variability of substorm size is much harder because it requires to measure simultaneously over large regions of the polar upper atmosphere and out into Space.In this project, we propose to attempt this by examining lots of substorms over more than a decade using spacecraft together with networks of magnetometers (sophisticated scientific compasses) and radars in both the Arctic and Antarctic. The resulting stats will be compared with what we already know from much more limited observations and with the predictions of new and existing substorm theories and models. The outcomes will be knowing things like how likely a really big substorm is that could mess things up, as well as models to explain why and hopefully when that might occur.

亚风暴是对近地空间的一种可重复的类似地震的扰动，显然是不可预测的，它在2小时到一天或更长时间后再次出现，通常向高层大气倾倒10亿焦耳的能量，相当于10场俄克拉荷马龙卷风或美国武器库中最大的核武器。亚风暴的间歇性和大小可变，使其成为预测高层大气状态的最大不确定性来源。它最明显的影响是极光，如果知道它什么时候发生会很好，这样我们就可以计划我们的北极假期，但亚风暴预测对于减轻高层大气自然变化对地球静止卫星通信和导航、低空卫星轨道和遥感、电网以及石油和矿产勘探的影响也很重要。预测也是对我们科学认识的终极考验。要取得进展，就需要测量和分析亚暴变率，以便测试和开发基于数学和物理的模型。我们已经知道了亚暴时间的统计数据，并用一个简单的数学模型解释了这一点(这个模型也被用来理解大脑中的神经元放电！)然而，了解和理解亚暴大小的变化要困难得多，因为它需要同时在极地高层大气的大片区域和太空中进行测量。在这个项目中，我们建议通过使用航天器以及北极和南极的磁力计(复杂的科学罗盘)和雷达网络来检测十多年来的大量亚暴来尝试这一点。由此得到的统计数据将与我们从更有限的观测中已知的情况以及新的和现有的亚风暴理论和模型的预测进行比较。结果将是知道一场真正大的亚风暴可能会把事情搞砸的可能性有多大，以及解释为什么以及可能发生的时间的模型。

项目成果

A new technique for determining Substorm Onsets and Phases from Indices of the Electrojet (SOPHIE)

• DOI: 10.1002/2015ja021343
• 发表时间: 2015-12
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
• 作者: C. Forsyth;I. J. Rae;J. Coxon;M. Freeman;C. Jackman;Jesper Gjerloev;Jesper Gjerloev;A. Fazakerley

Tailward Propagation of Magnetic Energy Density Variations With Respect to Substorm Onset Times

• DOI: 10.1029/2017ja025147
• 发表时间: 2018-06
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
• 作者: J. Coxon;M. Freeman;C. Jackman;C. Forsyth;I. J. Rae;R. Fear

Energization of the Ring Current by Substorms.

亚暴对环流的激发。

• DOI: 10.1029/2018ja025766
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Journal of geophysical research. Space physics
• 作者: Sandhu JK

Increases in plasma sheet temperature with solar wind driving during substorm growth phases.

• DOI: 10.1002/2014gl062400
• 发表时间: 2014-12-28
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Forsyth, C.;Watt, C. E. J.;Rae, I. J.;Fazakerley, A. N.;Kalmoni, N. M. E.;Freeman, M. P.;Boakes, P. D.;Nakamura, R.;Dandouras, I.;Kistler, L. M.;Jackman, C. M.;Coxon, J. C.;Carr, C. M.
• 通讯作者: Carr, C. M.

What effect do substorms have on the content of the radiation belts?

• DOI: 10.1002/2016ja022620
• 发表时间: 2016-07
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS
• 影响因子: 2.8
• 作者: Forsyth, C.;Rae, I. J.;Murphy, K. R.;Freeman, M. P.;Huang, C. -L.;Spence, H. E.;Boyd, A. J.;Coxon, J. C.;Jackman, C. M.;Kalmoni, N. M. E.;Watt, C. E. J.
• 通讯作者: Watt, C. E. J.