Designing Resilient and Adaptable Water management - Integrated & Interactive Tools (DRAW-IT)

挑战：英国许多河流流域的水资源被过度分配，导致水资源冲突，并在干旱期间限制某些用途。由于人口增长带来的需求增加，以及气候变化造成的干旱频率和强度的增加，稀缺的淡水供应的压力可能会在未来几十年加剧。为了应对这些挑战，许多供水公司正在规划新的供水基础设施，并得到区域和国家模型辅助供水规划研究的支持。然而，这种“供水基础设施”模型缺乏足够的细节来分析集水区管理措施的影响及其与已建基础设施的相互作用，例如改变土地或农业管理实践以及水分配和需求管理的新政策（例如，提取许可证改革、水交易、通过土地管理合同支付生态系统服务等）。英国水资源匮乏的集水区需要一种新的水资源管理方法，它利用定制设计的气候适应性基础设施和政策措施组合来支持企业和社区、环境和农业的可持续水管理。目标：促进对新的集水区规模资产（如供水基础设施）、景观（如土地管理和农业生产系统）和政策（如水资源共享和交易计划）如何能够增强水资源系统的复原力和气候变化适应性的决策相关理解，使有限水资源的竞争需求能够成本有效地平衡，同时最大限度地减少对环境和淡水生态系统的影响。方法：将英国领先的开源水资源管理模式（由11家水务公司使用）的扩展版本（含水交易）与开源的分布式水文、土地利用和农业生产模型连接起来。这种新颖的概念证明相互关联的土地和水生物物理水文经济模拟器将与不确定性方法下的决策分析相关联，例如多标准权衡优化，以优化英国集水区复杂的水土管理干预组合的适应性采用。基于网络的集水区可视化工具可以在基于地图的集水区干预组合和交易视图以及多指标绩效仪表板之间来回切换，以便利益相关者和决策者可以评估干预组合和预先批准的水交易。案例研究：坎和伊利河流域是英国环境署（EA）确定的四个试点集水区之一，以试验抽水法改革。影响：通过设计和实施基于综合陆地-水模拟、优化的基于权衡的气候变化决策和交互式可视化的概念验证管理方法，该项目旨在实现流域规划（投资、水政策）决策的转变。这可以提高英国的水土气候适应能力，最大限度地减少气候变化下水资源短缺的经济、社会和环境成本。考虑到需要为英国农民设计新的环境保护补贴（cap后），拟议的产出将提供一个客观的框架，以了解不同的土地和农业管理变化对汇水结果的有益（或无益）影响。该方法将尽可能一般化，以便随后更广泛地应用（例如，用于旱情管理（实时水资源分配）、防洪等）。

The challenge: Water resources in many UK river catchments are over-allocated, leading to conflict over water and restrictions on some uses during drought events. Pressures on scarce freshwater supplies will likely be exacerbated in future decades as a result of rising demand from population growth, along with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts due to climate change. To address these challenges, new water supply infrastructure is being planned by many water companies, supported by regional and national model-assisted water supply planning studies. However, such 'water supply infrastructure' models lack sufficient detail to analyse the effects of catchment management measures and their interactions with built infrastructure, such as changing land or agricultural management practices and new policies for water allocation and demand management (e.g. abstraction license reform, water trading, payment for ecosystem services via land management contracts, etc.). A new approach to water resource management is needed in UK water scarce catchments, which utilises custom-designed portfolios of climate-resilient infrastructure and policy measures to support sustainable management of water for businesses and communities, the environment, and agriculture.Aim: Enable decision-relevant understanding of how new catchment scale assets (e.g. water supply infrastructure), landscapes (e.g. land management and agricultural production systems), and policies (e.g. water sharing and trading schemes) can increase resilience and climate change adaptability of water resource systems, enabling competing demands of limited water resources to be balanced cost-effectively while minimising impacts on the environmental and freshwater ecosystems. Methods: Connect an extended version (with water trading) of the UK's leading open-source water resource management model (used by 11 water companies) to open-source distributed hydrologic, land-use and agricultural production models. This novel proof of concept interconnected land & water biophysical hydro-economic simulator will be linked to decision analysis under uncertainty approaches, such as multi-criteria trade-off optimisation, to optimise the adaptive adoption of complex portfolios of water-land management interventions in UK catchments. A web-based catchment visualisation tool will enable to toggle back and forth between a map-based catchment intervention portfolio and trading view, and a multi-metric performance dashboard so that stakeholders and decision-makers can assess portfolios of interventions and pre-approved water trades.Case study: The Cam and Ely Ouse is one of the four pilot catchments identified by the Environment Agency (EA) to trial abstraction reform.Impact: By designing and implementing a proof-of-concept management approach based on integrated land-water simulation, optimised trade-off based climate change decision-making, and interactive visualisation the project aims to enable a transformation of how catchment level planning (investments, water policies) decisions are made. This could improve the UK's land-water climate resilience, minimising the economic, social and environmental cost of water scarcity under climate change. Given the need to design new environmental conservation subsidies for UK farmers (post-CAP), the proposed outputs will provide an objective framework to understand how different land and agricultural management changes beneficially (or not) impact catchment water outcomes. The approach will be as general as possible to enable subsequent wider application (e.g. to operational drought management (real time water allocation), flood protection, etc.).