Analysis of historic drought and water scarcity in the UK: a systems-based study of drivers, impacts and their interactions

英国历史干旱和水资源短缺分析：对驱动因素、影响及其相互作用的系统研究

• 批准号: NE/L01016X/2
• 负责人: Jamie Hannaford
• 金额: $ 11.07万
• 依托单位: UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL01016X%2F2
• 关键词: Analysis; historic; drought; water; scarcity

Drought and water scarcity (D&WS) are significant threats to livelihoods and wellbeing in many countries, including the United Kingdom (UK). Parts of the UK are already water-stressed and are facing a wide range of pressures, including an expanding population and intensifying exploitation of increasingly limited water resources. In addition, many regions may become significantly drier in future due to environmental changes, all of which implies major challenges to water resource management. However, D&WS are not simply natural hazards. There are also a range of socio-economic and regulatory factors that may influence the course of droughts, such as water consumption practices and abstraction licensing regimes. Consequently, if drought and water scarcity are to be better managed, there is a need for a more detailed understanding of the links between hydrometeorological and social systems during droughts. Based on an analysis of information from a wide range of sectors (hydrometeorological, environmental, agricultural, regulatory, social and cultural), the project will characterise and quantify the history of drought and water scarcity (D&WS) since the late 19th century and will produce the first systematic account (UK Drought Inventory) of droughts in the UK. The Inventory forms the basis of a novel joint hydro-meteorological and socio-economic analysis of the drivers of drought and their impacts, with a focus on a search for characteristic systems interactions. The enhanced systems-based understanding is expected to improve decision-making for future drought management and planning, including more informed and thus effective public discourse related to D&WS. Currently there are no conceptual models of D&WS that describe interactions between hydrometerological and socio-economic drivers and environmental and societal impacts of droughts. The first task will therefore develop a new systems-based conceptualisation of D&WS. This will be used to investigate drought drivers, impacts and their interdependencies. The second task will produce the knowledge base for use within the project and the wider NERC UK Drought and Water Scarcity Programme. It involves the compilation of datasets and metadata, including data and information for selected case study episodes of D&WS. Information on the social and cultural aspects of D&WS will be compiled from oral histories and collation of reports in the historic and recent print and broadcast media, and the first analysis of social media from the 2010-12 drought will be carried out. The third task will develop the Drought Inventory by a novel combination of drought timelines, sector-specific narrative chronologies highlighting key events, and the production of new cross-sectoral drought indicators. To understand the interactions between social and environmental systems during D&WS episodes, the fourth task will: identify significant systems interactions across a range of droughts; identify key triggers and thresholds for droughts; and, describe the reasons behind any changes in systems interactions in droughts over the historic record. The final and fifth task examines how socio-economic context and water resource management practices contributed to resilience to episodes of D&WS in the historic record and considers the implications for changes in planning for the management of future droughts. It also provides an assessment of what are the most effective forms of dialogue and information exchange between the public and those responsible for water resource management that may contribute to beneficial outcomes during future episodes of D&WS. The key research outcomes will be: a systems-based understanding of D&WS in the context of multiple environmental and societal drivers; an accessible, integrated cross-sector UK Drought Inventory; improved advice and methods to support decision making related to drought management; and, new strategies to re-frame public discourse related to D&WS.

干旱和缺水 (D&WS) 对包括英国 (UK) 在内的许多国家的生计和福祉构成重大威胁。英国部分地区已经水资源紧张，并面临着广泛的压力，包括人口不断增长和对日益有限的水资源的加大开发力度。此外，由于环境变化，未来许多地区可能会变得更加干旱，所有这些都对水资源管理带来重大挑战。然而，D&WS 不仅仅是自然灾害。还有一系列可能影响干旱进程的社会经济和监管因素，例如用水实践和取水许可制度。因此，如果要更好地管理干旱和水资源短缺，就需要更详细地了解干旱期间水文气象和社会系统之间的联系。 基于对多个部门（水文气象、环境、农业、监管、社会和文化）信息的分析，该项目将描述和量化自 19 世纪末以来干旱和缺水 (D&WS) 的历史，并将产生英国干旱的第一个系统账户（英国干旱清单）。该清单构成了对干旱驱动因素及其影响进行新型水文气象和社会经济联合分析的基础，重点是寻找特征系统相互作用。增强的基于系统的理解预计将改善未来干旱管理和规划的决策，包括与 D&WS 相关的更知情、更有效的公众讨论。目前，还没有 D&WS 概念模型来描述水文气象和社会经济驱动因素与干旱的环境和社会影响之间的相互作用。因此，第一项任务将开发一种新的基于系统的 D&WS 概念。这将用于调查干旱驱动因素、影响及其相互依赖性。第二项任务将产生在该项目和更广泛的 NERC 英国干旱和水资源短缺计划中使用的知识库。它涉及数据集和元数据的编译，包括 D&WS 选定案例研究片段的数据和信息。有关 D&WS 社会和文化方面的信息将根据口述历史以及历史和近期印刷和广播媒体的报告整理进行汇编，并对 2010-12 年干旱的社交媒体进行首次分析。第三项任务将通过干旱时间表、突出关键事件的特定部门叙述年表以及新的跨部门干旱指标的制作的新颖组合来制定干旱清单。为了了解 D&WS 期间社会和环境系统之间的相互作用，第四项任务将： 确定一系列干旱期间的重要系统相互作用；确定干旱的关键触发因素和阈值；并描述历史记录中干旱系统相互作用发生变化的原因。最后一项也是第五项任务研究了社会经济背景和水资源管理实践如何增强对历史记录中 D&WS 事件的抵御能力，并考虑对未来干旱管理规划变化的影响。它还评估了公众与水资源管理负责人之间最有效的对话和信息交流形式，这可能有助于在未来的 D&WS 期间取得有益成果。主要研究成果将是： 在多种环境和社会驱动因素的背景下对 D&WS 的系统理解；一个可访问的、综合的跨部门英国干旱清单；改进建议和方法以支持与干旱管理相关的决策；以及重新构建与 D&WS 相关的公共话语的新策略。

项目成果

Enhancing Drought Monitoring and Early Warning for the United Kingdom through Stakeholder Coinquiries

通过利益相关者调查加强英国的干旱监测和预警

• DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-18-0042.1
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Weather, Climate, and Society
• 作者: Hannaford J

Drought risk in the Anthropocene

• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0297
• 发表时间: 2022-10-24
• 期刊: PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Hall, Jim W.;Hannaford, Jamie;Hegerl, Gabi
• 通讯作者: Hegerl, Gabi

Streams and Rivers: Report Card 2020

溪流和河流：成绩单 2020

• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Dobel, A.

Wetlands: Report Card 2020

湿地：2020 年成绩单

• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Acreman, M

Dynamic High Resolution Hydrological Status Monitoring in Real-Time: The UK Water Resources Portal

• DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2022.752201
• 发表时间: 2022-08
• 作者: L. Barker;M. Fry;J. Hannaford;G. Nash;Maliko Tanguy;O. Swain