Drought Impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and Early-warning Research

干旱影响：监测和预警研究中的脆弱性阈值

• 批准号: NE/L010038/1
• 负责人: Jamie Hannaford
• 金额: $ 30.88万
• 依托单位: NERC CEH (Up to 30.11.2019)
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL010038%2F1
• 关键词: Drought; Impacts; Vulnerability; thresholds; monitoring

Drought events pose a threat to water security in virtually every climate zone and to every water use sector. Although little can be done in the short term to prevent a drought, actions can be taken to reduce the vulnerability of society to the event, including the development of drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW) systems. There have been few attempts to assess how relevant widely-used physical indicators are for capturing drought severity in a way that reflects the complexity of inter-related human and environmental causes, effects and impacts, and such impacts have not been adequately incorporated into existing drought M&EW systems. This project seeks to fill this gap by improving the conceptual and methodological link between natural (hydrometeorological) drought characterisation and environmental and socio-economic impacts, in order to inform the development of enhanced drought M&EW systems and other risk management strategies. An innovative methodological approach will combine the use of hydro-meteorological and socio-economic data, including impact reports, alongside social learning approaches designed to incorporate stakeholders' views and experiences of drought. The team will use existing datasets of drought indices typically incorporated in monitoring systems, but also extensive, yet under-utilized, databases on drought impacts (US Drought Reporter, EU project DROUGHT R&SPI database). In a series of workshops with water suppliers and other stakeholders, the applicability of M&EW systems will be explored in strategy games and the results will feed back into analysis and design. This approach will support the iterative development of novel approaches for targeted M&EW for the case study sector of public water supply. The direct involvement of some partners in operational drought monitoring and robust assessment of the potentials and opportunities under different prerequisites will guarantee the project's impact and thus help move towards the goal of developing new practices enabling communities to build capacity for resilience to drought.

干旱事件对几乎每个气候区和每个用水部门的水安全构成威胁。尽管在短期内几乎无法做到以防止干旱，但可以采取行动来减少社会对事件的脆弱性，包括开发干旱监测和预警（M＆EW）系统。几乎没有尝试评估相关的物理指标如何以一种反映相互关联的人类和环境原因，效果和影响的复杂性来捕获干旱严重程度的相关物理指标，并且尚未充分纳入现有的干旱M＆EW系统中。该项目旨在通过改善自然（水文学）干旱表征与环境和社会经济影响之间的概念和方法学联系来填补这一差距，以便为增强的干旱M＆EW Systems与其他风险管理策略的发展提供信息。一种创新的方法论方法将结合使用水电学和社会经济数据的使用，包括影响报告，以及旨在纳入利益相关者的观点和干旱经验的社会学习方法。该团队将使用通常合并到监测系统中的干旱指数的现有数据集，但在干旱影响方面也广泛但未充分利用的数据库（美国干旱记者，欧盟项目干旱R＆SPI数据库）。在与水供应商和其他利益相关者的一系列研讨会中，将在战略游戏中探索M＆EW系统的适用性，结果将反馈到分析和设计中。这种方法将支持针对公共供水案例研究领域的目标M＆EW新颖方法的迭代发展。一些合作伙伴直接参与操作干旱监测和对不同先决条件下潜力和机遇的强大评估将保证该项目的影响，从而有助于朝着开发新实践的目标，使社区能够为干旱增强抗辩能力。

项目成果

Linking drought indicators with impacts: Insights from a case study in Germany and the UK

将干旱指标与影响联系起来：德国和英国案例研究的见解

• 期刊: 6th EGU Leonardo Conference HYPER Droughts. Prague, 13 - 14 November 2014
• 作者: Bachmair S

A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts

• DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-2589-2016
• 发表时间: 2015-09
• 期刊: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: S. Bachmair;C. Svensson;J. Hannaford;L. Barker;K. Stahl

Drought impact functions as intermediate step towards drought damage assessment

干旱影响是干旱损害评估的中间步骤

• 发表时间: 2016
• 作者: []

Developing drought impact functions for drought risk management

• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-17-1947-2017
• 发表时间: 2017-11-16
• 期刊: NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Bachmair, Sophie;Svensson, Cecilia;Stahl, Kerstin
• 通讯作者: Stahl, Kerstin

Developing drought impact functions to advance monitoring and early warning

开发干旱影响功能以推进监测和预警

• 发表时间: 2015
• 作者: Bachmair, S.