Forests at risk: Awakening the UK timber, forest carbon and forest insurance sectors to the threats of pests, disease and drought

拟建项目：由于历史数据有限，人们对英国森林的病虫害和干旱风险了解甚少。这给森林碳项目、木材生产和保险带来了风险管理和缓解方面的挑战。最初的PURE项目开发了一个模型来评估英国林地碳法典下森林碳项目的病虫害（P&D）未来风险。在这个项目中，我们建立了PURE工作（NERC/PA 13-021）、NERC研究（NE/I022183/1、NE- j019720 -1、NE/I019405/1）和成熟的合作（参见森林风险网络），以：(a)将我们的PURE P&D风险工作纳入林地碳规范（WCC）下的运营决策中；(b)将该工作的运营使用范围从森林碳扩展到森林木材；(c)开发新的保险产品。然后将复制这一过程，以适应和实施干旱风险评估模型（Petr等人，2014年），该模型产生的信息不足以满足WCC和保险目的。然后，这两种模型的科学将为制定最佳实践/指导和决策支持工具提供信息，以满足世界森林委员会、木材行业、保险部门以及更广泛的私营和公共森林部门的需求。PURE合伙人的风险管理专业知识（最初是在投资银行获得的，并通过上述NERC和PURE项目开发并应用于森林金融项目的自然灾害风险）将与林业委员会、森林研究和森林基金（一家设计保险和再保险产品的保险机构）的利益相关者合作，以实现这些成果。这项工作是必要的，因为森林对英国至关重要，迫切需要减少P&D和干旱的威胁。由于森林管理固有的漫长时间，现在就需要采取行动。林地和森林约占英国土地总面积的13%（林业委员会，2013）。初级木材加工和林业部门为经济贡献了19.2亿英镑的总增加值，并创造了超过39,000个就业机会（林业委员会，2013）。林地更广泛的社会和环境效益每年价值约15亿英镑（威利斯等人，2003年）。森林提供了重要的野生动物栖息地，在英国1994年生物多样性行动计划中列出的400种物种中，有130种是森林的栖息地。它们还在减缓和适应气候变化方面发挥重要作用，例如碳封存（Read等人，2009年）。然而，英国森林面临着风、火、病虫害和干旱等自然灾害的重大威胁。虽然人们对风和火灾的风险相对了解得很好，但对P&D和干旱的未来风险却知之甚少，而且由于缺乏适当的信息，保险很少提供。历史数据可以提供火灾和风对森林的未来风险的一些指示，但由于可能出现新的损失险，因此对预测损失险损失的用处不大；现存的生物可以跨越物种；运输和进口树苗等媒介可以随时给一个国家带来新的损益损失。同样，历史数据对于确定在树木气候耐受性极限的地区种植树种的风险也没有多大用处。这增加了他们对干旱的抵抗力。缺乏适当的风险衡量限制了森林碳项目的风险管理和保险缓解。项目产出将包括修订后的P&D模型和修订后的干旱风险评估，这将提供这些缺失的信息。研究结果将用于支持在WCC下实施更好的风险管理程序；开发新的保险产品；修订森林管理者的决策支持工具，以支持针对这些风险的适应性管理。将向更广泛的森林部门通报和传播结果。

Proposed project: The risks to UK forests from pests, disease and droughts are poorly understood as historical data is of limited use. This brings risk management and mitigation challenges for forest carbon projects, timber production and insurance. The original PURE project developed a model to assess the future risk from pests and diseases (P&D) for forest carbon projects under the UK's Woodland Carbon Code. In this project, we build this PURE work (NERC/PA 13-021), NERC research (NE/I022183/1, NE-J019720-1, NE/I019405/1), and well-established collaborations (see e.g. Forest-Risk Network) to: (a) embed our PURE P&D risk work within operational-decision making under the Woodland Carbon Code (WCC) (b) expand the operational use of this work from forest carbon to forest timber and (c) develop new insurance products. This process will then be replicated to adapt and operationalise a drought risk assessment model (Petr et al. 2014), which produces information inadequate for WCC and insurance purposes. The science from both models will then inform the development of best practice/guidance and decision support tools to meet the needs of the WCC, timber industry, insurance sector as well as the wider private and public forest sectors. The PURE Associate's risk management expertise (originally acquired in investment banking and developed and applied to natural hazard risks to forest finance projects through the NERC and PURE projects listed above) will be partnered with that of stakeholders from the Forestry Commission, Forest Research and ForestRe (an insurance organisation designing insurance and reinsurance products) to deliver these outcomes.The work is needed due to the critical importance of forests to the UK and the urgent need to reduce the threat from P&D and drought. Action is needed now due to the long timescales inherent in forest management. Woodland and forest cover about 13% of the total land area of Great Britain (Forestry Commission, 2013). The primary wood processing and forestry sectors contribute £1.92bn in Gross Value Added to the economy and generate employment for over 39,000 (Forestry Commission, 2013). The wider social and environmental benefits of woodlands are worth around £1.5bn annually (Willis et al., 2003). Forests provide important wildlife habitat and host 130 of the 400 species in the UK's 1994 Biodiversity Action Plan. They also play an important role in mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change e.g. carbon sequestration (Read et al., 2009).However, UK forests face significant threats from natural hazards such as wind, fire, pests, diseases (P&D) and drought. Whilst the risks from wind and fire are relatively well-understood - the future risks from P&D and drought are poorly understood and insurance is rarely provided primarily due to a lack of appropriate information. Historical data can provide some indication of the future risks to forests from fire and wind, but are less useful for predicting losses from P&D as new P&D can arise; existing ones can jump species; and vectors, such as shipping and imported saplings, can bring new P&D to a country at any time. Similarly, historical data are of little use to determine the risk of planting tree species in regions at the limit of the trees' climatic tolerances. This increases their vulnerability to drought. This lack of adequate risk measurement constrains risk management for forest carbon projects and mitigation by insurance. The project outputs will include a revised P&D model and a revised drought risk assessment, which will produce this missing information. The results will be used to support operationalisation into better risk management procedures under the WCC; development of new insurance products; and the revision of decision support tools for forest managers to support adaptive management against these risks. The results will be communicated and disseminated to the wider forest sector.