Understanding the effects of space weather on water sector infrastructure

了解空间天气对水务部门基础设施的影响

• 批准号: NE/M00886X/1
• 负责人: Jonathan Rae
• 金额: $ 6.21万
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM00886X%2F1
• 关键词: Understanding; effects; space; weather; water

Space Weather disruption of the near-Earth space- and ground-based systems is now accepted as having significant socio-economic impact , and is included in the UK National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies as a medium-high likelihood and medium impact civil emergency. Specifically, the UK National Risk Register identifies that "(c)urrent understanding is that a severe space weather event could have impacts upon a range of technologies and infrastructure, including power networks, satellite services, transport and digital control components" and that any industry relying on satellite services, that "(s)evere space weather can interrupt satellite services including Global Navigation Satellite Systems, communications, and Earth observation and imaging systems by damaging the space-based hardware, distorting the satellite signal or increasing the errors in ground-based receivers."The potential impacts of space weather on technological infrastructures, including power grids, satellite and ground communications and navigation systems, have generated world-wide interest at government levels in developing both forecasting and mitigation techniques and strategies. Indeed, the UK government is now seeking to establish a centre for space weather forecasting within the Met Office, who represent the state-of-the-art in forecasting terrestrial weather and can apply their 150 year heritage in forecasting to the field of space weather. The effects of extreme space weather can only be estimated since we do not know it's full extent. However, the potential total cost of an extreme Space Weather event has been estimated as around $2 Trillion in year 1 in the U.S. alone, with a 4-10 year recovery period . Quantifying the effects of Space Weather in all its forms is therefore of paramount importance. Less work has been undertaken in wider infrastructure sectors i.e. beyond those that coincide with technological infrastructures discussed above such as electricity distribution, communications and aviation. However, other infrastructure sectors exhibit important vulnerabilities to space weather, both being dependent on these technologies (e.g. GNSS, radio communication) through a disturbed ionosphere but also through sector-specific vulnerabilities. For example, Atkins has recently undertaken a study in relation to rail infrastructure, which has specific communication technologies and signal networks that are vulnerable to space weather.Therefore there is a need to consider sector vulnerability in more detail and this is particularly important for critical national infrastructure. Whilst much of this infrastructure has been examined, water is an area which merits increased attention. The water sector has extensive metal pipeline networks and is increasingly dependent on remote information collection and real-time control. The last two years of drought and extensive inland and coastal flooding has demonstrated the importance of effectively managing water. Moreover, the water sector uses UHF radio communication as an integral part of their operations and infrastructure. Since space weather is able to influence the propagation of signals through the modification and disturbing of the Earth's ionosphere, this represents an indirect way by which space weather can adversely influence the water sector operations and infrastructure.Atkins is the main stakeholder for this work, and Atkins is currently liaising with major water company clients on this issue. The wider stakeholder sphere will include the Environment Agency (as an asset manager and regulator), Ofwat, the Drinking Water Inspectorate, all water companies and water company supplies including consultants and the asset supply chain.

空间气象对近地空间和地面系统的破坏现在被认为具有重大的社会经济影响，并被列入联合王国国家民事紧急情况风险登记册，作为中高度可能性和中等影响的民事紧急情况。具体而言，联合王国国家风险登记册确定，“目前的理解是，严重的空间天气事件可能对一系列技术和基础设施产生影响，包括电力网络、卫星服务、运输和数字控制组件”，任何依赖卫星服务的行业，“任何空间天气都可能中断卫星服务，包括全球导航卫星系统、通信、这些卫星可能通过损坏天基硬件、使卫星信号失真或增加地面接收器的误差，对地球观测和成像系统造成损害。“空间气象对技术基础设施，包括电网、卫星和地面通信及导航系统的潜在影响，已引起全世界各国政府对开发预报和减缓技术和战略的兴趣。事实上，英国政府现在正寻求在气象局内建立一个空间天气预报中心，该中心代表了地面天气预报的最新技术，可以将其150年的预报传统应用于空间天气领域。极端太空天气的影响只能估计，因为我们不知道它的全部范围。然而，据估计，仅在美国，极端空间天气事件的潜在总成本在第一年约为200亿美元，恢复期为4-10年。因此，量化各种形式的空间气象影响至关重要。在更广泛的基础设施部门，即在与上述技术基础设施相吻合的部门以外，如配电、通信和航空，开展的工作较少。然而，其他基础设施部门也表现出严重的空间气象脆弱性，既通过受干扰的电离层依赖这些技术（例如全球导航卫星系统、无线电通信），也通过具体部门的脆弱性依赖这些技术。例如，阿特金斯最近进行了一项与铁路基础设施有关的研究，该基础设施具有易受空间气象影响的特定通信技术和信号网络，因此有必要更详细地考虑部门脆弱性，这对于关键的国家基础设施尤为重要。虽然已经对大部分基础设施进行了审查，但水是一个值得更多关注的领域。供水部门拥有广泛的金属管道网络，越来越依赖远程信息收集和实时控制。过去两年的干旱和内陆及沿海地区的大面积洪灾表明了有效管理水资源的重要性。此外，供水部门使用超高频无线电通信作为其业务和基础设施的一个组成部分。由于空间气象能够通过改变和干扰地球电离层来影响信号传播，因此这是空间气象能够对水部门的运营和基础设施产生不利影响的一种间接方式。阿特金斯是这项工作的主要利益攸关方，阿特金斯目前正在就这一问题与水公司的主要客户进行联络。更广泛的利益攸关方领域将包括环境署（作为资产管理者和监管者）、Ofwat、饮用水检查局、所有供水公司和供水公司供应，包括顾问和资产供应链。

项目成果

A new technique for determining Substorm Onsets and Phases from Indices of the Electrojet (SOPHIE)

• DOI: 10.1002/2015ja021343
• 发表时间: 2015-12
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
• 作者: C. Forsyth;I. J. Rae;J. Coxon;M. Freeman;C. Jackman;Jesper Gjerloev;Jesper Gjerloev;A. Fazakerley

What effect do substorms have on the content of the radiation belts?

• DOI: 10.1002/2016ja022620
• 发表时间: 2016-07
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS
• 影响因子: 2.8
• 作者: Forsyth, C.;Rae, I. J.;Murphy, K. R.;Freeman, M. P.;Huang, C. -L.;Spence, H. E.;Boyd, A. J.;Coxon, J. C.;Jackman, C. M.;Kalmoni, N. M. E.;Watt, C. E. J.
• 通讯作者: Watt, C. E. J.

The influence of solar wind variability on magnetospheric ULF wave power

太阳风变率对磁层超低频波功率的影响

• DOI: 10.5194/angeo-33-697-2015
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: Annales Geophysicae
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Pokhotelov D

Statistical characterization of the growth and spatial scales of the substorm onset arc.

• DOI: 10.1002/2015ja021470
• 发表时间: 2015-10
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS
• 影响因子: 2.8
• 作者: Kalmoni, N. M. E.;Rae, I. J.;Watt, C. E. J.;Murphy, K. R.;Forsyth, C.;Owen, C. J.
• 通讯作者: Owen, C. J.

A physical explanation for the magnetic decrease ahead of dipolarization fronts

• DOI: 10.5194/angeo-33-1301-2015
• 发表时间: 2015-10
• 期刊: Annales Geophysicae
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Z. Yao;Jiang Liu;C. Owen;C. Forsyth;I. J. Rae;Z. Pu;H. Fu;Xuzhi Zhou;Q. Shi;A. Du