Mathematical Modelling Tools for Conservation and Disease Management

用于保护和疾病管理的数学建模工具

• 批准号: NE/M021319/1
• 负责人: Andrew White
• 金额: $ 9.9万
• 依托单位: Heriot-Watt University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM021319%2F1
• 关键词: Mathematical; Modelling; Tools; Conservation; Disease

As well as being important in human and agricultural populations, it is increasingly recognised that infectious disease has important impacts in natural systems. In particular it is now clear that infectious disease can be important in conservation and may affect the ability of foreign organisms to invade natural communities. Ecological theory has been important in showing the general importance of disease in natural systems, but has only been rarely used to direct conservation programs. The project investigators have a track record in translating established research on disease-mediated ecological invasion into mathematical tools that can be used to direct conservation management decisions and policy. This project will answer current, pressing questions outlined by conservation agencies on the red-grey-squirrelpox system in Scotland. The objectives in the project have been specified by the project partners (Scottish Natural Heritage, Scottish Wildlife Trust) who need to know the potential impact of squirrelpox on remaining red squirrel populations, whether grey squirrel control can prevent squirrelpox spread and the critical locations and effort at which control is required. This information is essential to allow our conservation partners to formulate current and future management plans that allocates limited resources in a manner that maximises red squirrel protection. The modelling framework, which predicts temporal and spatial disease dynamics on large-scale, complex landscapes, is the best tool available to underpin these conservation efforts. Therefore, this NERC Innovations proposal provides a unique opportunity to translate established research into effective conservation strategies that provide direct tangible benefits to end-users.

除了对人类和农业人口的重要性外，人们越来越认识到传染病对自然系统的重要影响。特别是，现在很清楚，传染病在保护中可能很重要，可能会影响外来生物入侵自然群落的能力。生态学理论在显示疾病在自然系统中的普遍重要性方面一直很重要，但很少用于指导保护计划。该项目的研究人员在将疾病介导的生态入侵的既定研究转化为可用于指导保护管理决策和政策的数学工具方面有着良好的记录。该项目将回答保护机构对苏格兰红灰松鼠痘系统提出的当前紧迫问题。项目合作伙伴（苏格兰自然遗产、苏格兰野生动物信托基金）已经指定了该项目的目标，他们需要了解松鼠痘对剩余红松鼠种群的潜在影响，灰松鼠控制是否可以防止松鼠痘传播，以及需要控制的关键地点和努力。这些信息对于我们的保护合作伙伴制定当前和未来的管理计划至关重要，这些计划将以最大限度地保护红松鼠的方式分配有限的资源。该模型框架预测大规模复杂景观的时空疾病动态，是支持这些保护工作的最佳工具。因此，NERC创新提案提供了一个独特的机会，将现有的研究转化为有效的保护战略，为最终用户提供直接的有形利益。

项目成果

Grey squirrel control along the highland line. Report for Scottish Wildlife Trust and Scottish Natural Heritage

灰松鼠沿高地线进行控制。

• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: White, A., Lurz, P.W.W;Boots, M.
• 通讯作者: Boots, M.

Modelling disease spread in real landscapes: Squirrelpox spread in Southern Scotland as a case study

模拟疾病在真实景观中的传播：以苏格兰南部松鼠痘传播为例

• DOI: 10.4404/hystrix-27.1-11657
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: HYSTRIX-ITALIAN JOURNAL OF MAMMALOGY
• 影响因子: 1.5
• 作者: White Andrew

Mathematical models for invasive species management: Grey squirrel control on Anglesey

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.05.020
• 发表时间: 2017-09-10
• 期刊: ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Jones, Hannah;White, Andrew;Shuttleworth, Craig
• 通讯作者: Shuttleworth, Craig

Modelling the impact of forest design plans on an endangered mammal species: the Eurasian red squirrel

• DOI: 10.4404/hystrix-27.1-11673
• 发表时间: 2016-01-01
• 期刊: HYSTRIX-ITALIAN JOURNAL OF MAMMALOGY
• 影响因子: 1.5
• 作者: Jones, Hannah E.;White, Andrew;Lurz, Peter W. W.
• 通讯作者: Lurz, Peter W. W.

Grey Squirrels: Ecology & Management of an invasive species in Europe

灰松鼠：生态学

• 发表时间: 2016
• 作者: Jones, H.E.M