Delivering Food Security on Limited Land (DEVIL)

我们将研究现在和未来在有限地区实现粮食安全的挑战，这将需要研究土地利用变化和粮食安全动态之间的反馈相互作用。我们将利用合作伙伴开发的高分辨率、按空间分列的全球土壤、土地使用、作物和牲畜模型和数据库作为分析的基础。我们将使用全球FEEDME模型，根据粮农组织的统计数据和营养需求，得出国家一级的食品膳食需求。我们将开发和使用一个国家级的代理人为基础的模型，其中包括经济和社会政治的粮食生产和国家之间的贸易限制，以满足当地的粮食需求，或通过贸易（受国际贸易统计数据的限制），土壤，作物和牲畜资源。模拟系统的性能将根据当前的粮食安全统计数据和土地利用变化热点的空间数据进行测试。如果该系统能够复制当前状态，则将被认为是适当的。一旦评估，建模系统将被用于检查一系列情景，包括a）生产方面的措施，以提高粮食安全，通过：i）可持续集约化（缩小产量差距;改善牲畜），ii）再分配和贸易，以及B）需求方面的措施，通过i）改变饮食，ii）减少浪费（收获前后）。将在全球范围内审查这些变化驱动因素与土地利用之间的反馈互动，以及对粮食供应的反馈。其他区域分析将审查对粮食安全和土地使用变化至关重要的三个区域（南亚、撒哈拉以南非洲和南美洲）的粮食安全、土地使用变化和选定生态系统服务的影响。我们预计，这项工作将产生高影响力的文件和信息，对政策制定者，行业和其他利益相关者至关重要。该项目将为未来地球、CCAFS、全球土地项目和生态系统变化与社会方案做出贡献。

We will examine the challenge of delivering food security now and in the future on limited area, which will entail examining feedback interactions between land use change and food security dynamics. We will use the high resolution, spatially disaggregated global models and databases of soils, land-use, crops and livestock, developed by consortium partners as the basis for the analysis. We will use the global FEEDME model, informed by FAO statistics and nutritional demand, to derive country level dietary demands for food products. We will develop and use a country-level agent based model, that includes economic and sociopolitical constraints on food production and trade between countries, to satisfy the demand for food either locally, or through trade (constrained by international trade statistics), given the soil, crop and livestock resources available. Performance of the modeling system will be tested against current statistics on food (in)security, and spatial data on hotspots of land use change. The system will be considered adequate if it is able to replicate the current status. Once evaluated, the modeling system will be used to examine a range of scenarios including a) production side measures to improve food security, through: i) sustainable intensification (closing the yield gap; improving livestock), ii) redistribution and trade, and b) demand side measures through i) changing diets, ii) reduced waste (pre- and post-harvest). The feedback interactions between these drivers of change and land use, and the feedback to food supply will be examined globally. Additional regional analysis will examine impacts on food security, land use change and selected ecosystem services in three regions that are key for food security and land use change: South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and South America. We anticipate that this work will yield high impact papers and information critical to policy makers, industry and other stakeholders. The project will contribute to Future Earth, CCAFS, the Global Land Project and the Programme for Ecosystem Change and Society.