Land Allocation and Valuation Models Phase 2

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Land allocation models or Ecosystem service tools (ES tools) are simple descriptions of complex landscape processes which includes biogeochemical processes as well as demographic and socioeconomic influence. These ecosystem service tools range from simple excel based tools, to complex and detailed biophysical models with GIS mapping-based toolkits using simpler biophysical models, or empirical models providing an intermediate option. Simple tools such as the Natural Capital Planning tool (NCPT) or Eco-metric approaches are score-based approaches where as complex integrated models like InVEST can provide detailed quantitative, as well as economic, estimation of land management on various ecosystem services. These tools are often used for real decision making, estimating financial incentives associated with an investment on land management or predicting how sustainable development goals could be achieved through better land use. These tools vary greatly in their approaches and assumptions to simulate these complex human and nature interactions and recently there has been few model inter-comparison studies using mostly integrated models such as InVEST, LUCI and ARIES. However, more robust comparison of these simple to complex tools is required to understand how decision making can be influenced with use of tools of different complexity. In the Phase 1 stage of the work six ES tools/methods and a number of potential case studies were shortlisted, through consultation with stakeholders and steering group members and review of past studies. In Phase 2 we will road test the short-listed ES tools with real world case studies to test the following overarching hypothesis:1. Models of different complexity are comparable in providing evidence for decision making for land cover or land use management. Simple score based approaches could be used in a data /technical capacity limiting situation or may be as a tiered approach where simple tool can be used to decide the direction of impact with the land use change and in the next stage depending on the data/resource/technical capacity availability more complex detailed integrated models could be used for quantitative analysis and valuation (monetary or non-monetary) of future ecosystem services. 2. Impact of uncertainties in data input, model parameters and structure influences the outcome greatly. New approaches such as "Goal structured notations approach" could be used to assess assumptions in the tool.The project will bring together a group of modellers using different models, stakeholders which also includes case study experts who will provide input data for simulations and policy makers to one platform for a better understanding on how ES tools can help landscape decision making. Outcomes of this work will be individual high impact peer review papers for individual ES tools with simulation for few case studies and one model inter-comparison paper.