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The Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP)

深度时间模型比对项目 (DeepMIP)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/N006828/1
负责人：
Dan Lunt
金额：
$ 5.13万
依托单位：
University of Bristol
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2015 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FN006828%2F1
关键词：
Deep Time Model Intercomparison Project

项目摘要

Predictions of future climate, essential for safeguarding society and ecosystems, are underpinned by numerical models of the Earth system. These models are routinely tested against, and in many cases tuned towards, observations of the modern Earth system. However, the model predictions of the climate of the end of this century lie largely outside of this evaluation period, due to the projected future CO2 forcing being significantly greater than that seen in the observational record. Indeed, recent work reconstructing past CO2 has shown that the closest analogues to the 22nd century, in terms of CO2 concentration, are tens of millions of years ago, in 'Deep-Time'. The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) provides a framework (but no funding!) by which the palaeoclimate modelling community assesses state-of-the-art climate models relative to past climate data. Traditionally, PMIP has focussed on the relatively recent mid-Holocene (6,000 years ago) and Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago), but these time periods have even lower CO2 than modern (~280 and ~180 ppmv respectively, c.f. ~400 ppmv for the modern). Recently, PMIP has expanded into other time periods, most notably the mid-Pliocene (3 million years ago), but even then, CO2 was most likely less than modern values (~380 ppmv). The modelling community would clearly benefit from an intercomparison of 'Deep-Time' climates, when CO2 levels were close to those predicted for the end of this century.We will organise and provide funding for 2 workshops, with the aim of producing papers describing the experimental design and outputs from a new climate Model Intercomparison Project - "DeepMIP", focussing on past climates in which atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to those projected for the end of this century. The papers will evaluate the models relative to past geological data, and aim to understand the reasons for the model-model differences and model-data (dis)agreements, providing information of relevance to the IPCC.A previous NERC grant, NE/K014757/1, is currently aiming to assess climate sensitivity (the response of surface air temperature to a doubling of atmospheric CO2), through geological time. That project is focussing on many time periods, but with only one model. This IOF will complement that project, and bring added-value, by focussing on one particular time period, but with many models. As such we will address the crucial issue of model-dependence.

对未来气候的预测对于保护社会和生态系统至关重要，而地球系统的数值模型则是其基础。这些模型经常根据现代地球系统的观测结果进行测试，在许多情况下是根据现代地球系统的观测结果进行调整。然而，模式对本世纪末气候的预测基本上超出了这一评估期，因为预测的未来CO2强迫明显大于观测记录。事实上，最近重建过去二氧化碳的工作表明，就二氧化碳浓度而言，与22世纪最接近的类似物是数千万年前的“深度时间”。古气候模拟相互比较项目（PMIP）提供了一个框架（但没有资金！）古气候建模界通过该平台评估与过去气候数据有关的最新气候模型。传统上，PMIP集中在相对较近的全新世中期（6，000年前）和末次冰期最大期（21，000年前），但这些时间段的二氧化碳含量甚至比现代更低（分别为~280和~180 ppmv，c.f. ~400 ppmv为现代）。最近，PMIP已经扩展到其他时间段，最值得注意的是上新世中期（300万年前），但即使在那时，CO2也很可能低于现代值（约380 ppmv）。当二氧化碳水平接近于本世纪末的预测水平时，模拟界显然将从“深时”气候的相互比较中受益。我们将组织并资助两个研讨会，目的是编写论文，描述一个新的气候模式相互比较项目“DeepMIP”的实验设计和输出，侧重于过去大气中二氧化碳浓度与本世纪末预测值相似的气候。这些论文将根据过去的地质数据对模型进行评估，旨在了解模型-模型差异和模型-数据（不）一致的原因，为IPCC提供相关信息。先前的NERC赠款NE/K 014757/1目前旨在通过地质时间评估气候敏感性（地表空气温度对大气CO2加倍的响应）。该项目集中在许多时间段，但只有一个模型。这个IOF将补充该项目，并通过专注于一个特定的时间段，但有许多模型来带来附加值。因此，我们将解决模型依赖性的关键问题。