Decadal Influence of the Solar Cycle (DISC)
太阳活动周期的年代际影响 (DISC)
基本信息
- 批准号:NE/N010965/1
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 78.11万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:英国
- 项目类别:Research Grant
- 财政年份:2016
- 资助国家:英国
- 起止时间:2016 至 无数据
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Although global climate is expected to warm over the next century in response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases, regional changes over the next decade or so are likely to be dominated by unforced natural variability of the climate system. Some of this natural variability is potentially predictable months or even years in advance because it is related to relatively slow processes, especially those in the ocean (El Niño, fluctuations in the thermohaline circulation, and large-scale anomalies of ocean heat content). Another potential source of long-term variability comes from the well-known 11-year solar variations in the Sun's output but the mechanisms for how the signal reaches the surface is not well understood and, because of this, it is not well represented in climate models used for decadal predictions.The percentage variation in total solar irradiance over an 11-yr cycle is very small, but the variation in the UV is much larger and this can impact stratospheric temperatures and ozone production. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain how this stratospheric solar signal may extend its influence to the surface, including amplifying mechanisms through atmospheric circulation changes. Analysis of observations show that the surface response to solar variability is regional. There has been controversy surrounding the observed signal over Europe, but recent analysis of long-term observational records over Europe have confirmed a strong statistically significant signal at lags of 3-4 years. Climate models, including the Hadley Centre HadGEM model, are able to capture an upper stratospheric response to changing UV, but do not reproduce the observed signal in the lower stratosphere nor the observed lagged signal over Europe.Sensitivity tests with the HadGEM model with an exceptionally large UV change was able to reproduce the lagged nature of the signal, thus showing some promise for its ability to reproduce the signal, but the surface response amplitude is still much too weak, suggesting that there is room for significant improvements which should lead to improved decadal forecasts. This prime aim of the proposal is to improve the representation of mechanisms of solar influence on the Earth's surface in the HadGEM climate model so that forecasts using the Met Office DePreSys operational decadal forecast model can be improved. The project will employ both the HadGEM model and a simpler model for extensive testing of mechanisms, with a particular focus on improving the representation of those mechanisms that transfer the solar signal to the surface via stratospheric heating anomalies and a surface amplifying mechanism that involves atmosphere-ocean coupling in the North Atlantic. The resulting improvements to the HadGEM model will be tested by comparing results from re-forecasts (hindcasts) of selected years, with particular attention to improvements in the Atlantic / European sector. The project will be performed by researchers at Oxford University who will carry out the HadGEM investigations and Imperial College who will perform the mechanistic model investigations. Extensive support will be provided by Project Partners at the Met Office, who will be closely involved in the interpretation of the HadGEM experiments and implementation / testing of improvements in the DePreSys forecast system and a Project Partner at Kiel University who will advise on solar spectral forcing and contribute to interpretation of results in the context of other major climate models.
尽管由于温室气体水平的增加,预计全球气候将在下个世纪变暖,但未来十年左右的区域变化可能主要由气候系统的非受迫自然变化主导。其中一些自然变化可能可以提前数月甚至数年预测,因为它与相对缓慢的过程有关,尤其是海洋中的过程(厄尔尼诺现象、温盐环流的波动以及海洋热含量的大规模异常)。长期变化的另一个潜在来源来自众所周知的太阳输出的 11 年太阳变化,但信号如何到达表面的机制尚不清楚,因此,它在用于十年预测的气候模型中没有得到很好的体现。 11 年周期内总太阳辐照度的百分比变化非常小,但紫外线的变化要大得多,这可能会影响平流层温度和臭氧产生。人们提出了各种机制来解释平流层太阳信号如何将其影响延伸到地表,包括通过大气环流变化的放大机制。观测分析表明,地表对太阳变率的响应是区域性的。关于欧洲上空观测到的信号一直存在争议,但最近对欧洲上空长期观测记录的分析证实了滞后 3-4 年的强烈统计显着信号。气候模型,包括哈德利中心 HadGEM 模型,能够捕获平流层上层对紫外线变化的响应,但不能重现平流层下层观测到的信号,也不能重现欧洲上空观测到的滞后信号。使用具有异常大紫外线变化的 HadGEM 模型进行的灵敏度测试能够重现信号的滞后性质,从而显示出其重现信号能力的一些希望,但表面响应幅度仍然太大 疲软,表明还有重大改进的空间,这应该会导致十年期预测的改善。该提案的主要目的是改进 HadGEM 气候模型中太阳对地球表面影响机制的表示,以便改进使用英国气象局 DePreSys 业务十年预报模型的预测。该项目将采用 HadGEM 模型和一个更简单的模型来广泛测试机制,特别注重改进通过平流层加热异常将太阳信号传输到表面的机制的表示,以及涉及北大西洋大气-海洋耦合的表面放大机制。 HadGEM 模型由此产生的改进将通过比较选定年份的重新预测(后报)结果进行测试,特别关注大西洋/欧洲部门的改进。该项目将由牛津大学的研究人员和帝国理工学院的研究人员共同执行,前者将进行 HadGEM 研究,后者将进行机械模型研究。英国气象局的项目合作伙伴将提供广泛的支持,他们将密切参与 HadGEM 实验的解释以及 DePreSys 预报系统改进的实施/测试,基尔大学的项目合作伙伴将就太阳光谱强迫提供建议,并为解释其他主要气候模型的结果做出贡献。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(8)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
The SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative
SPARC 准两年期振荡计划
- DOI:10.1002/qj.3820
- 发表时间:2020
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:8.9
- 作者:Anstey J
- 通讯作者:Anstey J
Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi)
参与 SPARC 准两年振荡计划 (QBOi) 第一阶段的模型的实验设计和比较概述
- DOI:10.5194/gmd-2017-187
- 发表时间:2017
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Butchart N
- 通讯作者:Butchart N
Origins of multi-decadal variability in sudden stratospheric warmings
- DOI:10.5194/wcd-2020-56
- 发表时间:2020-11
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:O. Dimdore-Miles;L. Gray;S. Osprey
- 通讯作者:O. Dimdore-Miles;L. Gray;S. Osprey
Introduction to the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) and overview of the reanalysis systems
- DOI:10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017
- 发表时间:2017-01-31
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:6.3
- 作者:Fujiwara, Masatomo;Wright, Jonathon S.;Zou, Cheng-Zhi
- 通讯作者:Zou, Cheng-Zhi
Observed and Simulated Teleconnections Between the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Winter Atmospheric Circulation
- DOI:10.1029/2018jd029368
- 发表时间:2019-02-16
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:4.4
- 作者:Andrews, Martin B.;Knight, Jeff R.;Schenzinger, Verena
- 通讯作者:Schenzinger, Verena
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Lesley Gray其他文献
The effects of well-resolved stratosphere on representations of the Northern winter tropospheric circulations in the MIROCAGCM simulations
高分辨率平流层对 MIROCAGCM 模拟中北方冬季对流层环流表征的影响
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2017 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Yoshio Kawatani;Kevin Hamilton;Lesley Gray;Scott Osprey;Shingo Watanabe;Yosuke Yamashita - 通讯作者:
Yosuke Yamashita
ホルモース反応におけるホウ酸の影響の定量的評価
硼酸对甲糖反应影响的定量评价
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2017 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
河谷芳雄;Kevin Hamilton;Lesley Gray;Scott Osprey;渡辺真吾;山下陽介;古川善博, 阿部千晶, 掛川武 - 通讯作者:
古川善博, 阿部千晶, 掛川武
Impacts, processes and projections of the quasi-biennial oscillation
准两年振荡的影响、过程和预测
- DOI:
10.1038/s43017-022-00323-7 - 发表时间:
2022-08-02 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:71.500
- 作者:
James A. Anstey;Scott M. Osprey;Joan Alexander;Mark P. Baldwin;Neal Butchart;Lesley Gray;Yoshio Kawatani;Paul A. Newman;Jadwiga H. Richter - 通讯作者:
Jadwiga H. Richter
成層圏が対流圏に及ぼす影響:MIROC-AGCMを用いた考察
平流层对对流层的影响:使用 MIROC-AGCM 进行考虑
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2017 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
河谷芳雄;渡辺真吾;Lesley Gray;Scott Osprey - 通讯作者:
Scott Osprey
Getting TabOO issues on the table: Talking about overweight and obesity in New Zealand General Practice
- DOI:
10.1016/j.orcp.2014.10.075 - 发表时间:
2014-12-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:2.9
- 作者:
Lesley Gray;Tony Dowell;Lindsay Macdonald;Rachel Tester;Maria Stubbe - 通讯作者:
Maria Stubbe
Lesley Gray的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Lesley Gray', 18)}}的其他基金
GOTHAM - Globally Observed Teleconnections in Hierarchies of Atmospheric Models
GOTHAM - 全球观测到的大气模型层次结构中的遥相关
- 批准号:
NE/P006779/1 - 财政年份:2016
- 资助金额:
$ 78.11万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS)
确保对间断和激增事件的多学科理解和预测 (SMURPHS)
- 批准号:
NE/N006089/1 - 财政年份:2015
- 资助金额:
$ 78.11万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
International Network for QBO Research (QBOnet)
国际 QBO 研究网络 (QBOnet)
- 批准号:
NE/M005828/1 - 财政年份:2014
- 资助金额:
$ 78.11万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder Post Launch Operation
高分辨率动态临肢探测仪发射后操作
- 批准号:
NE/E012264/1 - 财政年份:2008
- 资助金额:
$ 78.11万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
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Influence of solar flares on radio waves in the upper atmosphere
太阳耀斑对高层大气无线电波的影响
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527703-2018 - 财政年份:2018
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EAGER: Influence of Coronal Magnetic Structure and Environment of Solar Filaments on the Early Deflection of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs): New Observations and Modeling
EAGER:日冕磁结构和太阳细丝环境对日冕物质抛射(CME)早期偏转的影响:新的观测和建模
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Quantifying solar flux and geomagnetic main field influence on the equatorial thermosphere-ionosphere system for timescales complementary to satellite missions.
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Influence of crepuscular solar lighting on Common Nighthawk activity.
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OCE-PRF Track 1 (Broadening Participation): Evolutionary ecology of the "living solar panel" - how photosymbioses influence diversification of a marine bivalve lineage
OCE-PRF Track 1(扩大参与):“活太阳能电池板”的进化生态学 - 光共生如何影响海洋双壳类谱系的多样化
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Modelling solar irradiance variations: the influence of faculae and small-scale magnetic flux elements
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